To say Stuart Skinner’s season has been full of ups and downs would be putting it extremely lightly. It looked like no one, including the sophomore netminder, could stop a beach ball in the early goings of the 2023–24 season in the Edmonton crease. Since the coaching change, and more specifically during the Edmonton Oilers’ record setting win streak, Skinner has been borderline unbeatable. Here are the numbers behind Skinner’s season.
The defence went through major changes
According to private numbers from Clear Sight Analytics, the Oilers defensive environment has really been a tale of two seasons, which coincide with the two coaching tenures (with the Florida road trip lumped into the Jay Woodcroft era before Kris Knoblauch could make changes). According to graphics tweeted by founder Stephen Valiquette, the Oilers were 27th in expected goals against at 5v5, while also placing 26th in the same metric while shorthanded under Woodcroft.
The breakdown of that environment was fascinating, as the Oilers were seventh in their own dzone but the worst team off the rush. A few weeks before Woodcroft’s firing, the Oilers were giving up 2.86 expected goals per game off the rush at 5v5 alone, an environment where it would be tough for any goalie to thrive.
By the same private model, which includes rush chances, quantified pre-shot puck movement and traffic, the Oilers have rebounded in a big big way defensively. As of January 16, the Oilers were a top three team in the league defending the rush since Knoblauch took over, and combined with their already solid zone defence, were first overall in high danger chances at 5v5.
That swing in defence was largely unseen my public models simply due to the fact that rush chances aren’t captured in the play by play data that they are built upon. During the Woodcroft era, Evolving Hockey has the Oilers ranked 11th at 5v5 with 2.5 expected goals against per 60. When Woodcroft was fired while they sit eighth with 2.44 expected goals against per 60 since returning from that Florida road trip after which things reportedly improved. Combined an improvement that isn’t shown by the public models with the fact that Skinner’s long time weakness has generally been against the rush, and it was not a good combination.
The year started off horribly for Skinner
Even when considering the defence, Skinner started the year in a horrible sophomore slump. He was not able to win a game indoors until November 11. More than that, Skinner did not have a single performance above expected during that span with the exception of the Heritage Classic win against the Calgary Flames.
Through those first eight games, ending in the loss at San Jose that sealed Woodcroft’s fate, Skinner had a cumulative -8.12 GSAx per Evolving Hockey. That mark was good for second worse in the league through that point, with only Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson faring worse. What’s even worse, is that he had three starts where the loss can be statistically pinned on the goaltending, results in five lost standings points for the team. The team was not giving up much quantity at all. But when they did, it was high danger chances almost always finding their way to the back of the net.
How Skinner has improved under Knoblauch
For better or worse, the Oilers decide Skinner was going to be their guy for the rest of the season despite the struggles. Since that decision, the Edmonton native has made Ken Holland and the rest of the management group look really smart.
Since Knoblauch’s hiring, Skinner has only lost four games, with two of those coming in blowouts on that first road trip in Tampa Bay and in Carolina. Over that same span, Skinner has personally stolen the Oilers eight games—when his game goals saved above expected is greater than the goal differential in a win. Overall, it nets out to an extra 10 points for the Oilers over that span. Since that November 12 coaching move, Skinner has saved 19.52 more goals than expected, a mark that is second only to Vezina favourite Connor Hellebuyck. What’s even more impressive about that mark is that the two games against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes set Skinner back -5.35 GSAx. Using raw stats, he has a .932 SV% and 1.85 GAA under Knoblauch. Everything points towards elite goaltending performance from the Oilers’ young starter.
As mentioned before, the Oilers great defence is not fully captured by the public analytics models. That rush defence that Skinner struggles with so much and was a problem area early, has now become a legitimate strength. However, according to Clear Sight Analytics (via a Kevin Woodley interview on the Jason Gregor Show), Skinner has been a top five goalie since the defence has stabilized under Knoblauch. If the Oilers can continue to maintain this environment and Skinner continues his play, the Oilers, who are typically known for their offensive prowess, will have one of the league’s top goal prevention units.
In terms of technique, not a lot has changed for Skinner. The early season struggles looked like a lot of lost confidence. There could be multiple causes for that. As good as he was in his rookie season, Skinner sputtered in the playoffs. Add the fact that the Oilers came back with a goalie battle in training camp, which was the first of Skinner’s hockey career, and he was entering this season not on the right foot. When the pucks started to go in early, everything came crashing down. Skinner stopped trusting his defence, particularly off the rush, which led to him giving up depth, which would lead to him getting beat clean. Around his start against Dallas, there was a noticeable shift, where Skinner started taking even more depth, refusing to get beat clean on shots, but not giving himself a chance on any rebound or pass.
Now, Skinner is finding his groove. The 6’4″ netminder is reading releases better than he ever has before, staying on top of the puck and not giving up any holes. His depth and reads have been great, anticipating the play and taking depth where he can and trusting his defence to take care of their assignments.
Skinner is on an absolute heater. He’s been one of the league’s best goalies since the Oilers coaching change resulted in better rush defence, insulating something that is not a strength in his game. With no appearances below .900 since Christmas, Skinner has brought his season save percentage to just below his career average of .912 in a season where the league average is .904. After such a horrific start, the resurgence of Skinner has given the Oilers a legitimate NHL starter that will be able to compete and potentially steal games in the playoffs.
Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire
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