The Edmonton Oilers find themselves back to an even record, though the journey has been tumultuous if nothing else. For the time being we have a mirror image on either side of the coaching change, the team going from Jay Woodcroft to Kris Knoblauch.
Of course, Woodcroft brought success to the Oilers during his head coaching tenure, and some would suggest that he would have seen the club to this point if he had the chance. The reality is that it was Knoblauch who had the opportunity to bring the team back from an early gloom.
It is true that the Oilers turnaround is a collective effort, but let’s take a look at some of the changes we’ve seen in the Knoblauch era.
Changes to the penalty kill
Perhaps one of the more important areas required in playoff glory is the penalty kill. Early this season, the Oilers penalty killing was costing them, operating at an uninspiring, if not concerning efficiency.
While there do appear to be more nuanced tactical changes involved, perhaps including a greater aggression in pressuring the puck, it is clear that the Oilers have been more concise in their deployment under Knoblauch. On defence this has primarily meant going with four defenders, Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci, playing the most, even more than they had under Woodcroft, with Mattis Ekholm and Vincent Desharnais with a continued role in behind. As a counteraction, we’ve seen less of Brett Kulak on the penalty kill, perhaps the foremost factor in his overall icetime drop since the coaching change.
The group has been more concise in the forward usage as well. Mattias Janmark still paces the group, with healthy usage for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan, Ryan McLeod, Connor Brown, and more so recently Warren Foegele. Earlier this season, while the unit was struggling, we saw a lot of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evander Kane on the penalty kill, and this group has seen their minutes decreased while the team is a skater short. This might describe most of their overall icetime drop since the coaching change, and perhaps a factor in their increased offensive production, along with health and luck.
Given that the Oilers have a lot of elements required of a true Stanley Cup contender, the duo of elite talent leading the team, a blueline featuring three bonafide top pairing defencemen, a strong cast of forwards, a team focus and toughness, having a strong penalty kill can give their assets a chance to defeat any opponent, or the baseline to do so.
While in retrospect it can be said that Woodcroft struggled with getting the penalty kill to an elite level throughout his tenure as a whole, it should be noted that last season’s Oilers rounded into a strong form down the stretch of the regular season. Still, the results faltered early this season, and Knoblauch has seen the unit improve dramatically since taking over.
Knoblauch had coached his AHL teams to top 10 penalty kill units prior to joining the Oilers, perhaps an indicator of a strength here. Paul Coffey is earning lots of praise for his work with the blueline in general, while Mark Stuart might also be a key factor on the groups success. Regardless, the Oilers are working together and showing results on the penalty kill that are extremely promising for the team’s Stanley Cup viability.
Even strength play has improved
In contrast, the Oilers play at even strength has always graded out strongly, even during the early season struggles. Still, there was a clear pattern of disastrous lapses under Woodcroft, with the team’s defensive consistency even being cited as the team’s most fatal flaw after losing in the second round last season.
Anecdotally, the Oilers have been much tighter defensively, through finding more cohesive team play, limiting the most dangerous chances off the rush or with an unchecked opponent at the net front. These are the very issues that plagued the Oilers in their series against the Vegas Golden Knights last season. Between this and a strong penalty kill, the Oilers will forge themselves into a team that does not easily defeat itself, a key factor in surviving the attrition ahead of them.
The biggest change in icetime comes through playing a more traditional 12-6 lineup, with a clear cut top four defencemen. Virtually all the Oilers defence saw a rise in icetime, but this is as much to do with the demotion of Philip Broberg than anything.
In turn, and through injuries, the forwards have seen less icetime by average across the board. The top-six players, most notably McDavid and Draisaitl, have seen less icetime, but still a healthy amount above the rest of the team’s forwards. McLeod has centred a clear checking line, while a fourth line of Sam Gagner, James Hamblin, and Ryan has formed some chemistry of late.
This is not drastically different from what the team ran under Woodcroft, though having a consistent 12 is a change, perhaps allowing for some chemistry lower in the lineup. It does raise some interesting questions and observations. Ryan continues to be a part of surprisingly effective lines, who maybe should not be all that surprising after all.
What to expect going forward
Does Hamblin have a future as an NHLer? He looks to be earning a longer look, and perhaps in the future even an audition in a bigger role. With a smart game, a functional skill set, and perhaps a great mentor in Ryan, Hamblin might continue to push his way for more going forward.
On top of that, where does Dylan Holloway fit in after returning from injury? Holloway’s return is not imminent, and perhaps another forward will go down before we get the chance to see how it would fit into the current lineup. Earlier this season he did quite well on McLeod’s wing, and theoretically could give the line a greater upside.
The goaltending has been better, but the Oilers need to resist wearing Skinner down too much. Though it is possible, most across Oilers Country are unconvinced that the Oilers can afford to give either Calvin Pickard or Jack Campbell enough starts to achieve this. While the storm clouds above the team in general have tempered, the Oilers do need to provide Skinner and the rest of the team with better support somehow.
The team’s shooting percentage has returned back to a more normal place than it was under Woodcroft this season. This has been emphasised by the return of incredible scoring rates for a previously injured McDavid, and new heights for Bouchard. With Draisaitl and Zach Hyman playing as well as ever, and Ekholm regaining effectiveness after a pre-season injury, the circumstances of the Oilers most impactful players play a huge part in the team’s turnaround in its own right.
Taking a look at the overall bigger picture
In all, the Oilers are still a good team, just as they were under Woodcroft, worthy of harbouring championship aspirations. Still, we have seen key improvements under Knoblauch, even beyond some regression or luck. The Oilers remain a focused and driven group, trying to find the path to glory, willing, but they now appear to be more cohesive, and ultimately effective in some of the key areas they needed to improve upon.
In the grand scheme the team is on an upward trend. The calendar year has seen several key turning points, from Desharnais’ call up, to Ekholm’s acquisition, to Bouchard’s ascent, and now to Knoblauch’s hiring. There will still need to be a few more positive inflections on the Oilers path, but for now the team is looking quite strong and seems to be headed in the right direction.
This perception is especially key, if only internally, until the time that both McDavid and Draisaitl are re-signed. As much as one might try to minimise the importance of moral victories, one cannot deny the abyss that the team gazed up through the early portion of the season. Seeing positive results from the first coaching hire of the Jeff Jackson era, particularly one with which he has a close relationship, is vital in establishing its long term credibility. It’s still early, but the Knoblauch hire has not only given the Oilers a better chance at success this season, but appears to be a stabilising force for the seasons ahead as well.
With that we can close the book on Woodcroft’s tenure. Some might have found his dismissal premature or unfair, but this is the nature of a coaching position in the NHL. It might be that multiple Stanley Cups are required for a coach to reach five or more seasons of tenure. Woodcroft will likely get another opportunity at some point, and clearly brought the Oilers to new heights during an impressive run with the team.
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