The Edmonton Oilers have continued to rack up points, earning eight of a possible 12 in their last six games, earning a 3–1–2 record. The team lost a heavyweight bout against the Colorado Avalanche in the dying second of overtime, as well as some more disappointing losses to the Buffalo Sabres in a shootout and to the Columbus Blue Jackets in regulation. The Oilers posted dominant wins against Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls in the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins.
The biggest positive sign is that the team’s season-long penalty killing efficiency has improved to over 80% and into the top 10 of the league. While somewhat of an arbitrary landmark, this does show that the team has reached a new level of defensive maturity, a crystallisation of their championship potential into a team that does not easily defeat itself. With elite offensive talent and a decided ability to carry even strength play, leading the league in expected goals percentage, the Oilers will strike fear into the heart of any playoff opponent.
The Oilers aren’t perfect, and perhaps no team is, but the team checks off a number of key boxes outside of having already won a Stanley Cup. While some fans might’ve wished for a more aggressive approach to deadline buying, the Oilers spent a lot to add three players to their lineup. It is still early, but we have been able to see how the additions have fit into the group.
Middle six improvements
The headliner is Adam Henrique, a forward with positional flexibility, contributions on both sides of the puck, and utility on both special teams. Henrique has taken over the third line centre role, freeing up Ryan McLeod for more time on Leon Draisaitl’s wing. Draisaitl is not the Hart Trophy candidate that he has been in the past, though is certainly still an elite player. Draisaitl could use some support in controlling play, especially on defence, making McLeod an intriguing fit with a growing track record of success.
This lineup flexibility is vital to quantifying Henrique’s addition. His two points as an Oilers are hardly headline grabbing, but Henrique is an upgrade to the Oilers middle six no matter where in the lineup he finds himself. Henrique has not posted the best flow of play results in his short time as an Oiler, though his most common linemate Evander Kane hardly helps his cause here. As much as McLeod and Draisaitl have performed well with Warren Foegele alongside, it is hard not to think that the Oilers will try some different combinations as the season progresses.
At some point we should see Henrique find a more defined line and hopefully some chemistry therein. In the Oilers last game, a win against the Montreal Canadiens, Henrique centred a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Derek Ryan.
Fourth line upgrades
Sam Carrick has delivered to his billing, a physical fourth line centre that can help out on the penalty kill. While Carrick’s line with Mattias Janmark and Corey Perry has been outchanced during their time together, the trio offers a strong sense of identity that teams favour for 4th lines with limited icetime. The trio brings a rugged and tenacious effort to every shift. Some fans across Oil Country would certainly prefer a younger player with more upside in the lineup, for example Dylan Holloway, but this is somewhat unlikely. Holloway would have a stronger case to be slotted higher in the lineup should injuries occur, but Carrick embodies what the team seems to value as a fourth line centre.
Blueline development
Troy Stecher has played the least, still an extra when the team is in full health. That said, Stecher has been serviceable, even while playing on his weak side, or up the lineup as he did filling in for an injured Vincent Desharnais. Stecher routinely finds his way into playoff teams’ top-six blueliners, and might be able to do so once more, this time for the Oilers.
Any time that Stecher has received so far has been due to illness or injury to others, but that might not be the case going forward. Clearly the Oilers value Desharnais, who continues his unconventional ascent, earning more and more trust and icetime. Reading the tea leaves, it might be Cody Ceci whose spot in the lineup is most in jeopardy.
Many fans across Oil Country will rejoice at the concept of Ceci being pushed out of the lineup, but for now the coaching staff appears set on seeing how Ceci fares on a pair with Brett Kulak. Ceci has long been a punching bag, even prior to joining the Oilers, yet has given the Oilers a lot of top end minutes through the team’s successes, playing higher in the lineup than many would have advised or imagined. The splitting of the Nurse-Ceci pairing might spell the end for Ceci’s time as an Oiler, and facetiously might offer a new beginning for Nurse.
In the end, any problems that come from a fully healthy Oilers blueline are good problems to have. Clearly the Oilers did not feel comfortable with the depth on the right side and Stecher has already proved himself a valuable upgrade.
What to expect in the next few games
To finish out the month of March, the Oilers have six games remaining, three of which come from bonafide playoff teams in the Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, and Los Angeles Kings. There is some concern across Oil Country regarding the team’s record against playoff opponents, these three games offering a chance to improve a sub par record in such situations heading into the final month of the regular season.
Undoubtedly playoff teams are harder to beat. To an extent any team’s record should be worse against tougher opponents, but it’s true that the Oilers splits are jarring to see. Some solace can be found in the context, though, as the Oilers schedule has exacerbated the optics. Early in the season, under former Coach Jay Woodcroft, the Oilers stacked up a lot of losses to current playoff teams. The Oilers are a much better team under Kris Knoblauch, though this metamorphosis did not occur overnight. The Oilers lost three straight games on a southeastern road trip in the early weeks of Knoblauch’s tenure. At this point, the Oilers have a 13–14–3 record against teams currently in playoff positions on the season as a whole, but this mark improves drastically if we measure since the start of December 2023. Since then, the Oilers record versus playoff teams is 11–4–2, a very strong mark that should dispel concerns.
While these losses still count, the Oilers record versus playoff opponents is much better when moving the goalposts. Though much of the winter portion of the Oilers schedule offered up a lot of games against weaker opponents, the Oilers have beaten some playoff teams along the way. Ultimately what is important is which team galvanises at the end of the season, and the Oilers are on a decidedly upward trajectory in this regard. There is a lot left to be earned, to be proved, but the Oilers do offer legitimate reasons for fans to hold an optimistic outlook.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
