The NHL playoffs are a time of high emotions and slim margins, with often only a bounce or two separating the thrill of victory from the agony of defeat. With the small margin of error and the high stakes it’s no surprise that fans are swept up in the momentum of the moment. After the Los Angeles Kings won in overtime of Game 2, the series heads to California tied at a game apiece, the mood across Oil Country much different than it was days ago after a dominant Game 1 victory.
Despite the tight loss, where the Edmonton Oilers did well to fight back from an early 3–0 deficit, there was a big positive that emerged Wednesday night. Dylan Holloway had a statement performance, perhaps his finest as an NHL player. Holloway debuted for the Oilers two seasons ago, in the West final against the Colorado Avalanche, but the 2020 14th overall pick might have finally arrived as a staple of the Oilers lineup scoring two huge goals in the Oilers comeback effort. Let’s take a look at the path Holloway has taken to this moment, as well as where it might go from here.
Holloway’s history with Edmonton
From his draft night, many of the positives from Holloway have been easy to define. With a big frame and explosive skating, Holloway has an impressive physical profile. This materialises in several key areas, perhaps most of all as a forechecking presence. Holloway can close gaps thanks to his speed, and force turnovers thanks to his strength and stick checking. With positional versatility, Holloway has always been thought of as a player with a high floor. Even without elite puck skills or hockey sense, Holloway has the tools and disposition to be a regular NHL player.
While this is true, it is not the whole truth. Holloway has had some tough stretches on his journey so far, most of which have been due to injury. Holloway missed a lot of action from 2021–22, often with injuries that had multiple setbacks. While Holloway has a high floor as a player while on the ice, this lack of availability torpedoes any value he can contribute, not to mention a loss of playing time.
While healthy, Holloway has been able to show flashes of higher upside. His work in the AHL has given us some skill as a puck carrier in transition, but Holloway’s greatest offensive tool is his shot, as evidenced by his two goal performance in Game 2. Holloway does have some ability as a playmaker or as a net front presence, but these are secondary pieces to Holloway opening up options thanks to his threat as a shooter.
The first step in unlocking a higher ceiling lies through Holloway establishing his shot, which of course is easier said than done. While Holloway has been effective as a forechecker in the NHL, it’s been rare that he has been in the flow of the game enough to find himself in shooting positions. There have been some good strides taken, as Holloway increased his shots per game from 0.86 in 2022–23 to 1.47 this season. This shows us that Holloway’s mental game is improving, that he’s able to apply his size and speed to greater effect. This growth is mirrored by his ability to dominate at the AHL level having been healthier the past two seasons.
If he’s able to put it all together, Holloway has the ability to become a great middle-six NHL forward who can impact his team on both sides of the puck. Holloway is fast enough to be effective on the forecheck and backcheck, and strong enough to win battles along the boards or at the net front. Holloway will create turnovers which he will turn into shots.
A reasonable and optimistic projection would see Holloway perennially around the 20-goal, 40-point range while aiding his team in controlling possession. As far as player to player comparisons go there are shades of several current Oilers in Holloway’s game. He has some of the transition utility that Ryan McLeod does, some of the shoot-first power forward trappings of Evander Kane or Warren Foegele, and maybe even enough all around skill to mimic some of what Adam Henrique brings as a two-way player with positional versatility.
His current utilization
Currently, Holloway finds himself on the fourth line, playing less than 10 minutes in each of the Oilers first two playoff games. His traits have been on display, adding a youthful step to the heavy, responsible, but limited duo of Sam Carrick and Mattias Janmark. Together, they are a hearty line that focuses on straightforward plays. Holloway has much more offensive upside than his current linemates, but perhaps his strong play can push him further up the lineup this postseason.
In the future we might see Holloway as an ideal linemate for Ryan McLeod. There is a lot of size, speed, and defensive talent between the two, but their offensive games might fit well together, with McLeod as a playmaker and Holloway as a shooter. For now, this is the most likely promotion available to Holloway, though Kane and Corey Perry currently occupy McLeod’s wings. Holloway would seem to be a defensive upgrade on his veteran teammates, though it might not be so simple.
Kane might well be ageing out of his prime, but is also dealing with injury. Kane certainly brings an edge and a scoring touch that Holloway has yet to. Perry, meanwhile, plays a net front game that differs from Holloway’s. Both provide much more experience, which the Oilers might defer to. While two goals is hardly the nightly expectation for Holloway, with some consistency it is likely that the Oilers will give him a look in a bigger role at some point soon. Ultimately it is a testament to the Oilers depth and relative health that Holloway further up the lineup is not a given.
Future with the team
At this point we have not seen enough from Holloway to get too carried away in pencilling him into a regular top-six role in the future. The chance to play with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl would certainly add a lot to any player’s projected production, as would be the case for Holloway. While there are a lot of good tools for Holloway to work with, there is still a lot left for him to prove before earning such an opportunity. For now, it would seem much more comfortable to project Holloway into a role similar to what Foegele has done this season, a steady contributor to the middle of the lineup.
Holloway is an RFA this offseason, and will not command a huge raise over his entry level deal. This is great news for the Oilers, who are tight against the cap. On a two- or three-year bridge deal, the Oilers should get quality play at an affordable price, helpful to re-signing McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard to their next deals. Holloway emerging would ease decisions throughout the lineup, perhaps even with pending UFA Foegele this summer.
At some point the Oilers might give Holloway a look at centre, further increasing the positional flexibility of their roster. With two of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all but assured to be at centre, this might only serve to give the Oilers enough flexibility to move McLeod to the wing, should they so choose.
While hypotheticals of the relatively distant future are entertaining, they can only be so concrete. For the time being the only thing that matters across Oil Country is that Holloway seems to have arrived at the perfect time. Holloway brings a jolt of speed and youthful exuberance that bolsters the Oilers lineup, not matter how small his role. With any luck Holloway will be able to keep proving himself, playing his way up the lineup, and ultimately surpassing his regular season goal and point totals on a deep playoff run.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
