Although individual awards pale in comparison to the glory of a Stanley Cup, Edmonton Oilers fans are all too familiar with the credibility and expectations that come alongside. Injuries might have stolen Connor McDavid’s chances at his usual haul of hardware, but that doesn’t mean that the Oilers are without worthy candidates for some other individual award recognition.
Perhaps most of all, Evan Bouchard played well enough to be among the defencemen who are considered for the Norris Trophy. Despite his great play, Bouchard was not named one of the three finalists for the award. Let’s take a look at Bouchard’s case for the award and what his exclusion means.
The case for
Since Bouchard was on the radar as an NHL draft prospect, the highs have been obvious. Over the years, we have seen Bouchard able to materialise his offensive talents into elite level production. From his unique ability as a shooter to his distribution skills, Bouchard is a dynamic scoring threat who makes his team more dangerous every time he has the puck. On an objective level Bouchard is an elite offensive defenceman.
Often, scoring alone is enough to vault a defenceman into the Norris conversation. Bouchard’s roughly point per game pace over the regular season is indeed a rare feat, but it is not quite extravagant enough to change the conversation single handedly. There were three defencemen who scored more points than Bouchard this season, and about nine in the same points per game neighbourhood. Oilers fans are right to feel that Bouchard achieved at a high level, but the basis of any legitimate gripes about his lack of nomination for the Norris need to be built on more than that.
In Bouchard’s case, there is more than sheer production to back up his game. Bouchard logged tough minutes on the Oilers top pairing, handling the role for the first time in his career. From a long term perspective Bouchard was trending in the right direction, and looks to be a force in the league for years to come. His defensive impacts are quite favourable, and though Bouchard is not the most physical defender, he is able to use his smarts and an active stick to break up chances for the opposition.
As we can see, these impacts on both sides of the puck have presented themselves in some of Bouchard’s advanced statistics. Not to be outdone, more pragmatic, if not archaic measurements are quite favourable, as Bouchard also carried a +34 plus-minus this season. Quite simply, the Oilers controlled play and goals when Bouchard was on the ice, and Bouchard played a lot of minutes against top competition.
The case against
While the case for Bouchard’s Norris candidacy is straightforward, there are a few angles to push back against the idea. Part of the issue surrounds interpreting the definition of the award itself, as well as finding which player best encapsulates that personal interpretation. Most of the time this benefits scoring defencemen, punishing those whose value presents in more abstract manners. Last season it was Erik Karlsson who won the honour, his 100+ points over the regular season deemed spectacular enough to overlook the shortcomings elsewhere in his game, not to mention the poor quality of his team.
Scoring totals might help Bouchard contend for a Norris, now and in the future, but there are other conventions that hurt his candidacy. More than most awards, save for the Selke, a Norris trophy is usually earned over the course of several seasons. As defensive impacts are harder to quantify, they can become based on reputation just as much as they can be influenced by stats or current play.
It is under this convention that Bouchard’s candidacy is hurt, a newcomer to the Norris scene. Only since last season’s trade deadline has Bouchard played a top pairing role for the Oilers. At best, this year was the first step in earning more recognition in the future. Oiler fans will have to accept a longer term view when it comes to a Bouchard Norris Trophy campaign.
There are other things to hold over Bouchard, which may or may not be reasonable. Bouchard played against top competition, but he also enjoyed favourable deployment alongside some of the best teammates he could ask for. Mattias Ekholm is just about as ideal a partner for Bouchard as can be imagined, a veteran defensive presence with a high degree of savvy and physicality. Bouchard enjoyed a lot of time with Connor McDavid as well, an ideal forward who can gain the zone and find Bouchard in open ice for long range chances. Bouchard was a big part of controlling play, but without a doubt he enjoyed a great deal of support.
One final thought worth discussing is a criticism of Bouchard’s game as a whole. As mentioned above, Bouchard has long had a reputation of a high ceiling player, but there have also been many who doubted his ability to reach the level of play that he has. Bouchard is big but not overly physical or punishing. At times he can appear sluggish, lacking urgency. Perhaps most frustrating is that Bouchard is prone to some awful giveaways, often disastrous and spectacular.
While Bouchard has proven the doubters wrong to an extent, these are still issues. Some Norris voters will punish these traits, enough that it puts a dent in Bouchard’s voting totals. Even with extremely positive stats, from raw production and plus-minus, to xGF% and WAR, Bouchard’s style of play will keep him from a spotless reputation as a defender.
Last playoffs, Ekholm was sure to mention that this high risk trade off is a necessity for Bouchard’s best self, that he sees it as his job to help cover his partner’s back. Perhaps in another world where the NHL recognized the defensive contributions of defenceman Ekholm might be a fine Norris nominee himself.
The competition
There are other obstacles keeping Bouchard from the Norris trophy: his peers. The NHL is home to a number of magnificent defencemen who are worthy of Norris consideration. Some of these are more veteran players, who have more impact on their team’s defensive play or penalty killing, while others, like Bouchard, are younger and high scoring.
Roman Josi, an official Norris finalist, scored more goals and more points than Bouchard this season. The totals themselves were close, but Josi was also more relied upon by his team, as the Nashville Predators are not the team that the Oilers are. Cale Makar outscored Bouchard and played a significant penalty killing role on his Colorado Avalanche.
Both Josi and Makar have won a Norris before, which might affect their chances this year, one way or another. Quinn Hughes authored a career season, leading all defencemen in points. In his first season as captain, Hughes led the Vancouver Canucks back to playoff relevance. Hughes is the favourite to win the Norris this season, though Makar could monopolise the honour for most of the next decade.
Both Victor Hedman and Adam Fox scored at a similar rate to Bouchard this season, yet neither was nominated for the Norris. Both played larger penalty killing roles than Bouchard as well. The Norris excludes some perennially excellent defenders like Charlie McAvoy and Jaccob Slavin from ever getting consideration, despite their part in their teams’ consistent greatness. Gustav Forsling might belong in this category as well.
Clearly, scoring is hugely important to Norris candidates. Unfortunately for Bouchard it will be difficult to consistently outscore the likes of Makar and Hughes throughout his career, but chances are that he will be able to in a handful of seasons. In their age cohort are others like Miro Heiskanen and Rasmus Dahlin, who are both skilled enough to contest for the Norris on a yearly basis.
At the end of the day it is quite difficult to be nominated for a Norris, even if deserving of consideration. Even to find oneself in the top 10 of Norris voting, as Bouchard likely did this season, is an accomplishment.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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