It has been a tumultuous and dramatic start to the 2023–24 season, business as usual for an Edmonton Oilers team that is high on thrills and expectations. At 24-years-old, Evan Bouchard has continued to come into his own for the Oilers, proving to be among, if not decidedly, the primary bright spots so far this season.
The 10th overall pick in the 2018 NHL entry draft, it has been a long time coming for Bouchard to reach this elite level of play. There have always been hopes of Bouchard becoming a cornerstone of the Oilers blueline, but we are quickly approaching the point where our perceived upside for Bouchard might have to be readjusted. In fact, within this season, two factors have made a Norris Trophy more feasible for Bouchard.
Bouchard’s improving play
First, Bouchard’s play has continued to improve, and with a tailor made partner in Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard is fully supported to come into his own. Of course, there was little doubt that Bouchard had the offensive chops to produce among the league’s best, as well as a favourable power play spot, but it has been his defensive strides that have altered the results, and truthfully Bouchard’s upside as a whole.
Early this season we saw some egregious errors from Bouchard, and with the team reeling under former Coach Jay Woodcroft tensions were heightened. Much like in the 2022–23 season, Bouchard started slow, rounding into form alongside the Oilers team record as the season wore on. This season has seen Bouchard reach new heights, weaning off some inevitable miscues.
Furthermore, by virtually every expected goal model Bouchard is providing elite level defence. Undoubtedly we can allow Ekholm, and his presumably improving health after starting the season with a hip injury, to be a big part of this success, though Bouchard deserves full credit.
We have seen signs of this going back to the Dave Tippett coached Oilers, where Bouchard was able to hold up in a penalty killing role, though since his draft year there have been doubts Bouchard could reach this level of defensive play. Even anecdotally, because of his size and lack of physical intensity, relying more on skill and intelligence, Bouchard has had to combat the thinking that he might be “big for nothing.” At this point it is undeniable that Bouchard can be a major contributor to team defence.
This alone casts Bouchard in a new echelon. Quantifiable defensive prowess is enough to give Bouchard the platform for his unique offensive skill set to shine through untarnished. Instead of a flawed, scoring defenceman, like Shayne Gostisbehere perhaps, Bouchard can instead find ilk in Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar, Roman Josi, and Erik Karlsson. Because of his size and skill set, Dougie Hamilton might have been the ultimate comparable, though imperfect, but Bouchard has a greater sheen of offensive skill, and now perhaps a greater impact on team defence than Hamilton did in his prime.
Team context
The second reason a Norris Trophy is in the conversation for Bouchard is to do with some less fortunate reasons for the Oilers. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are still producing among the league’s best, though this is a down year as they have normally been scoring ahead of the competition by a wide margin. While Karlsson took home the Norris last season, he did so by leading his team in points as much as he did it by leading the league in points by a defenceman.
Simply put, with McDavid and Draisaitl leading league scoring by a wide margin, Bouchard’s point total may not be weighed equally amongst those of his peers. With more mortal scoring production from McDavid and Draisaitl, Bouchard has produced consistently, putting to doubt any narratives of his being reliant on his MVP teammates.
It might be rash or harsh, but there might be legitimate arguments for Bouchard being the Oilers second best player at this point of the season. This is by no means to slight Draisaitl—who habitually saves his best work for the biggest games, and it might take a long while to unseat him from this position outright—but the fact that Bouchard has clearly been a driving factor in team success cements his legitimacy as one of the league’s best.
Outlook for Bouchard
This brings us to the real issue at hand, that awards like the Norris Trophy are often built on more than the outcomes or statistics of a given season. They are informed by history, pedigree, and narrative. Often, a Norris win is a culmination of being among the league’s best for a number of years. From this perspective a Norris win for Bouchard this season is quite unlikely, but earning any consideration is a huge win for the likelihood of that happening in the future.
Despite what any stats say, it might be a bit much to suggest Bouchard will become the best defender in the league, though this usually has little to do with the Norris Trophy. Elite level offensive play is a much greater requisite than true shutdown defence, and frankly the defensive bar is one that Bouchard seems to have completely surpassed. If anything, Bouchard might well have started to enter other conversations reserved for the league’s elite, including being worthy of some thought on team Canada’s stacked right side, should a best-on-best tournament ever occur.
More than anything else, Bouchard’s continued emergence gives the Oilers a greater upside as a team. When the team lost to the Colorado Avalanche in the 2021–22 Western Conference Final, there was a sense that the Oilers blueline could not hold a candle to the Avs group. In large part, this was thanks to Cale Makar, but at that point the Avs had a lot more size and stability in their blueline than the Oilers did.
Bouchard rising to an elite level gives the Oilers a shot, as does his support. Darnell Nurse and Ekholm are undeniably assets to a contending team, especially without considering their cap hit or contracts, while Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, and Brett Kulak offer quality depth. The group has a lot of size and skill, an adequate blend of offence and defence, and is certainly much stronger than the blueline of two seasons ago. Perhaps it would not stand out as the league’s best blueline, but it certainly has the ingredients to hold up in a similar light.
Of course Oilers GM Ken Holland is under a deserved scrutiny, and he has had his share of misses during his time with the Oilers. That being said, the upward trajectory of the blueline as a whole is very promising. Of course, it was Peter Chiarelli who drafted Bouchard, and current coaches Kris Knoblauch, Paul Coffey, and Mark Stuart deserve credit as well. It takes a lot of people, and a lot of time, but in the end it seems like a huge win for the Oilers as a whole, turning a disappointing season and a 10th overall pick into a star defenceman.
Bouchard’s future with the team
The final piece of the puzzle is what this will mean for Bouchard’s cap hit going forward. In a vacuum the Oilers should have locked up Bouchard to as long a deal as possible last summer, though Bouchard might have wanted a full season of top power play time to make his case for a bigger deal. The Oilers cap circumstances meant that the team opted to sign Bouchard to a low a deal as possible, and consequently a short deal, knowing that the price tag would only rise in the future.
The Oilers will be presented with similar options once again during summer 2025. Bouchard will have negotiating leverage, but remains an RFA. There is very little reason to doubt that team and play won’t be able to come to a longer term solution, though it might force the Oilers hands in other regards.
At a $3.9M hit this season, it’s not hard to imagine that Bouchard might double that number on a long term deal, at least. The Oilers will likely use Bouchard’s status as an RFA to their advantage, hoping to keep his cap hit under Nurse’s $9.25M. With Bouchard beginning to enter conversations like the Norris, it might be hard to do. With the cap on the rise, and expected to continue doing so, it might be inevitable that Bouchard’s next contract exceeds Nurse’s.
That summer Draisaitl and Bouchard could re-sign, even taking on similar deals in a sign of solidarity to the program. With McDavid due for a new contract the season after, having these two elite talents in tow will be instrumental in keeping the Oilers the only option.
Bouchard might try to use contract length to his advantage, helping the Oilers stay cap compliant in the short term, but setting himself up to hit UFA status before age 30, where he can command a bigger deal. Even further, with the cap back on the rise we might see some players navigate their prime years more aggressively, taking shorter deals and renegotiating a cap percentage as the cap itself grows.
Perhaps the Oilers can afford to fit a long term Bouchard into their current structure. Jack Campbell’s contract would be a huge part of this, offsetting a Bouchard raise in its own right, though this might be more difficult to clear fully than is comfortable. Still two seasons away, it might be a bit too soon to be worth pondering the nitty gritty of what contracts the Oilers might be able to afford.
The bottom line is that Bouchard is worth it. Firmly part of the Oilers core, perhaps even third in overall importance to the team at this point, there is a lot of movement that is worth making in order to ensure that Bouchard is firmly in the fold.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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