The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a big hole, down three games to one against the Florida Panthers. The team will be in tough to come back in the series, but they have a number of outstanding players that have helped them reach this point. To make it to the Stanley Cup Final such performances are required of most, if not all, members of a team.
The Oilers are no different, led by their otherworldly superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Those two have hardly been alone in their superb play, as the Oilers boast a number of players who have authored outstanding playoff contributions. Among those at the forefront beyond McDavid and Draisaitl, perhaps even just as impactful, has been Evan Bouchard.
The Oilers dynamic offensive right shot defenceman has already produced one of the great playoff scoring performances in NHL history. Let’s take a look at Bouchard’s play and what it means for the Oilers in the present and the future.
Context and support
Clearly, with Bouchard scoring at a volume rarely achieved by only some of the best offensive defensemen in history, his offensive game speaks for itself. A truly singular talent in the league today, there are not many players who boast the shooting velocity that Bouchard does. Bouchard is a good passer, able to quarterback his team up the ice and take advantage of the passing lanes in the offensive zone that open up because of his shooting prowess. By contrast, Bouchard does not achieve much offence with his skating compared to most of his contemporaries, past or present.
Naturally, a lot of Bouchard’s scoring has come from the Oilers star studded power play. While his predecessor on the Oilers top unit, Tyson Barrie, did a solid job in this spot, the Oilers power play has been among the greatest in league history since he took over. As Oil Country has come to appreciate, even with a legendary power play unit, scoring in the playoffs is difficult. Part of the reason for the Oilers success is that there are no passengers on the unit. Despite the talent around him, Bouchard is full value for his scoring total.
The same points might be reiterated at even strength. Bouchard is well supported, playing with an ideal defensive partner in Mattias Ekholm. The pairing is often deployed with McDavid. In other words, Bouchard plays with and against the best players in any given game. It would be ridiculous to suggest Bouchard is a passenger, but it would be foolish to discount that playing an ideal role on a strong team has nothing to do with Bouchard’s success.
Defensive impact
Bouchard has dominated flow-of-play metrics, such as expected goals percentage, throughout the regular season and playoffs. As these metrics become more mainstream, more onlookers are using them as the basis for their valuations league wide. Analysts who value these metrics have already started to tout Bouchard as one of the league’s best defensive defencemen for this reason. While Bouchard’s offensive impact is undeniable, the appraisal of his defensive impact is much more disputed.
On some level offence and defence are inextricably linked within the flow state of hockey. Bouchard’s ability to generate offence provides value to his defence. While a player and their team has the puck it is very rare to concede a goal. Bouchard can help turn any possession into a goal, breaking out of his defensive zone, navigating through the neutral zone, and of course his contributions to in zone offence.
On the other hand, the opposing team will have the puck, and every player will have to contribute less tangible in-zone defensive play. While Bouchard is not a complete liability in these areas, this is where the biggest gripes against his game originate from. Bouchard is a big body, but is not overly physical. Bouchard is prone to coverage mistakes, as are many players.
Perhaps most frustrating is a perceived carelessness with the puck in his own zone. Because of his size, skating, and calm demeanour, optics of Bouchard getting stripped of possession or giving the puck away outright can be ugly. These perceptions have always been the knock against Bouchard, and likely will be throughout his career. With experience there is certainly hope that Bouchard can continue to improve in this area. For now, the strong points of his game thoroughly outweigh the negatives.
Bouchard is a good enough player to be named to a beat on best team Canada, and should be in contention for the Norris Trophy on a yearly basis. With that being said, it is likely unsound analysis to suggest that Bouchard is among the best defensive defencemen in the league.
Playoff MVP
The Oilers are not eliminated yet, and as the team’s season was on the ropes in November 2023 no one should be counting them out. If the Oilers are able to extend the series, much less author a comeback, there is a good chance that Bouchard will be heavily involved on the scoresheet. There is a chance that Bouchard can rewrite the history books and set a new record for most points by a defenceman in the playoffs outright. This would be a tremendous accomplishment, but would it be enough to earn Bouchard the Conn Smythe, win or lose?
In a vacuum, it might be. It is not unprecedented for a player who loses in the final to be named playoff MVP. Necessary for such a case is dramatic individual success, and Bouchard’s production certainly fits the description. However unlikely a player from the losing team may be, Bouchard’s chances face a bigger hurdle, his teammate Connor McDavid.
Having been a consensus choice as the NHL’s best player for nearly a decade, McDavid has been the Oilers best player through these playoffs as well. Not only this, but McDavid has re-written some history as well, setting the new high for assists in a playoff, surpassing Wayne Gretzky no less.
Whichever team wins the Stanley Cup, Bouchard is a quality choice for playoff MVP, but it is quite unlikely that he wins the honour. In truth, McDavid might be the outright favourite in either scenario.
Going forward
With the Stanley Cup in the building for the remainder of the series, virtually every ounce of focus across Oil Country is rightly on the here and now. However, once the Cup is awarded that focus will shift to next season and beyond. Since Ekholm was acquired at the 2023 trade deadline, Bouchard has been fantastic, clearly among the best defencemen in the league.
An RFA last summer, Bouchard did not have much leverage, and ideally the Oilers might have extended him for eight seasons. Unfortunately, this was not really an option for the Oilers, who would not have been able to afford the elevated cap hit that this length of deal would require. As such, Bouchard is up for a new contract, and a healthy raise, after the 2024–25 season.
Eligible for an extension on July 1, conversation about Bouchard’s next deal will begin in earnest almost immediately after the Cup is awarded. Regardless of how one feels about Bouchard’s defensive game, his offensive talents will see him compensated handsomely. With the salary cap on the rise, the Oilers should be expecting something in the neighbourhood of a $10M cap hit for Bouchard.
Some fans might bemoan the missed opportunity to sign Bouchard to a lower cap hit last summer. Doing so would have required other changes to the Oilers roster, changes that might well have negatively impacted their chances to win this season. At the very least, the Oilers will still be able to re-sign Bouchard to a cap hit that is tenable, though the question of when they choose to do so will be interesting.
Bouchard’s current deal expires at the same time as Draisaitl’s, and a year before McDavid’s. Extensions for all three players is the main goal for the Oilers outside of winning a Stanley Cup, and many are expecting their combined cap hits to be about $40M, while more optimistic observers might hope for something closer to a combined $35M. The good news is that the cap is on the rise, the Oilers have some money coming off the books when Bouchard and Draisaitl’s next deals begin, and Bouchard will still be an RFA.
It is very likely that the Oilers focus on extending Draisaitl first, although it will be interesting to see how the team decides to navigate the situation. Another factor to consider is who might be representing the Oilers in those negotiations, as GM Ken Holland’s contract expires this season. As Bouchard has already had a tremendous season, and is an RFA, the Oilers will have time to play out the situation with Bouchard, and might even be able to extend McDavid next summer before working out Bouchard’s next deal.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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