Allegedly these are the dog days of the offseason. While we are weeks away from training camp opening, the 2024–25 schedule has begun with drama, as there has not been much reprieve for Oil Country since the team got off on the wrong foot last season. The early days of the Stan Bowman era are upon us, and the Edmonton Oilers have already faced some tough decisions.
At the centre of it all were the contracts that both Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway signed with the St. Louis Blues. The double offer sheets sent the Oilers into a frenzy of other manoeuvres. The Oilers shed some salary, added some younger players, and added what could be fairly high draft picks in second and third rounders from the Blues. While there might yet be some deals ahead, the Oilers might keep some in-season flexibility to accrue space for a bigger splash at the trade deadline.
Headed into training camp, the Oilers quest begins anew. The team identity must be reforged, reasserted, and renewed. Kris Knoblauch returns behind the bench, now getting to run his first NHL training camp. Let’s take a look ahead to the lineup decisions that the Oilers will have to sort through to begin the 2024–25 season.
McDavid and Draisaitl
Naturally there will always be times that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl play on the same line. Late in periods, after penalty kills, on the power play, and of course during late game comeback bids Knoblauch will turn to the dynamic duo. Beyond this, a big question will always be whether or not to separate the two superstars. The answer to this riddle shapes the rest of the forward lines beneath them.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman have been particularly effective on a line with McDavid, often leaving Draisaitl to figure out a way to make himself with less effective linemates. In particular, it is difficult to turn away from the chemistry between McDavid and Hyman, and the burden of driving a second line is better carried by Draisaitl than Nugent-Hopkins.
There is some intrigue behind playing McDavid with Draisaitl on one line, Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman on another. The Oilers will deploy multiple transfigurations of their lineup throughout the season, and their best four forwards provide a fantastic starting point. In all likelihood we will see the Oilers lean on the RNH-McDavid-Hyman line, one of the best in the league.
Veteran middle-six forwards
Fortunately the Oilers have a bolstered stable of forward options in the lineup, especially with three luxury veterans that strengthen the Oilers middle-six group. Adam Henrique returns, a play driving centre who can also play on the wing. At the very least it should be acknowledged that Henrique is an option as a top-six winger. In particular he might help Draisaitl control possession more than most other options.
Viktor Arvidsson joins, and is thought to be pencilled in as a fit on Draisaitl’s wing. Arvidsson is skilled, decisive, relentless, and forceful. Able to generate shots for himself and set up teammates with quality passes, Arvidsson will be in position to succeed alongside an elite centre. Unfortunately, there is an injury history that is concerning. Combined with his age, there should be some expectation that Arvidsson misses time at some point.
Jeff Skinner also signs as a UFA. A speedy and skilled sniper, Skinner has consistently provided offence at even strength, with or without superstar linemates. His defensive impact leaves something to be desired, but Skinner will add to an already overwhelming Oilers offence. His style of play might require him to be deployed on a scoring line.
Finally, Evander Kane fits into this group. Currently on LTIR with an unclear injury status after playing through a hernia last season, Kane was still able to score, but was not at his best. There is worry that Kane’s age is catching up with him, that his cost outweighs his contribution, but the significant injury he played with must be acknowledged.
If and when Kane returns, he might be able to be more effective than he was last season. The Oilers may be able to manoeuvre the salary cap and LTIR as it stands, but Kane’s contract might be something the Oilers look to move off of, especially when prospective new contracts for Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard kick in. For the time being he should be a help to the lineup, though his possession numbers are cause for concern, especially on Draisaitl’s wing. His health, performance, age, and cost relative to the Oilers improved forward depth certainly casts some doubt on the future.
Extras and scratches
The Oilers do have an appropriate amount of veteran depth, including Derek Ryan and Corey Perry. Despite their advanced age both have yet to falter as capable bottom-six contributors. Both are great options for the fourth line, but could pick up the lineup at times.
Still, the Oilers might be tempted to look elsewhere if a significant injury occurs. There are a number of young forwards who are firmly in the mix for call ups already. Matthew Savoie headlines, a prospect of more quality than a perennial contender usually has. In his first year of AHL eligibility, the Oilers should probably lean towards slow playing his development, especially given the depth of their fully healthy lineup. Still, Savoie has the skill to be a high level offensive contributor on an entry level contract. Regardless of what unfolds, Savoie will be a big reason to hope for the Oilers over the next couple seasons.
Savoie will not be alone this season either. Roby Jarventie is 22 years old now, but has already played parts of four seasons in the AHL, increasing his production each time. Coming off of a knee injury, Jarventie might take some time to regain his stride, and the Oilers could ride out his final season of waiver exemption. Still, Jarventie has proven enough that a shot at a call up this season is not out of the question.
Raphael Lavoie remains a potential option. A scoring winger, like Savoie and Jarventie, Lavoie might have a difficult time breaking into bottom-six roles. Either might prove ready to be NHL ready without the puck, but have yet to do so. In a sense, they might be destined to be injury call ups on that basis, especially the waiver exempt Savoie.
A player who is better suited to a fourth line role might be more likely to make the team out of camp, and the most likely candidate is Noah Philp. After taking a year off, Philp returns the the Oilers system this season. Prior to his leave, Philp was thought to be on the cusp of an NHL spot, a big centre who plays a simple game. Philp excels in contested ice, making him a strong in-zone presence on offence and defence, battling in the corners, faceoff dots, and at the net front.
The recently acquired Vasily Podkolzin finds himself roughly in this cohort. There have been some highlights, as the 2019 10th overall pick played the entire 2021–22 season in the NHL. Since then things have not gone as smoothly, as Podkolzin split each of the past two seasons between the AHL and NHL. At 23-years-old, time for huge improvements might be wearing thin, but given his forechecking ability and individual skill level the Oilers will be tempted to see if Podkolzin can better apply himself at the NHL level.
Projected opening night lines
Nugent-Hopkins — McDavid — Hyman
Skinner — Draisaitl — Arvidsson
Janmark — Henrique — Brown
Podkolzin — Ryan — Perry
Injured: Kane
Call ups: Savoie, Jarventie, Lavoie, Philp, Hamblin
Top defensive pairing
The Oilers have one of the league’s best pairings in Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard, and there’s is no reason to think that they will be separated by choice. Bouchard is just coming into his own, Ekholm might be on the tail end of his prime effectiveness. Their styles offset each other quite well, forming an undeniable chemistry. At some point Ekholm might lose a half-step, a troubling thought for Oilers fans. At the very least Bouchard should help Ekholm age more gracefully.
It will be Bouchard that stirs the drink on the Oilers back end for years to come. He will be leading the blueline in icetime, playing at the top power play spot, and occasionally chipping in on the penalty kill. Bouchard has become a potential Norris Trophy candidate, and even forced himself into the conversation with Draisaitl as the second most important Oiler.
In the past season and a half, as well as over the course of two playoff runs, Bouchard has authored this breakthrough. Ekholm has been a big part of this, but he is more than merely Bouchard’s most optimal partner on the roster. Ekholm is the Oilers most reliable defensive defenceman, a clear choice for the top penalty killing unit. If Father Time robs him of his ability to handle top pairing even strength minutes in the future, he might still be an integral piece of the blueline for another while.
What about Nurse?
Nurse is a left shot, with a fantastic tool kit and a hefty price tag. Nurse is not a true top power play option, but is a contributor to even strength offence. His point totals are fairly stable because of this, helping his team generate offence more than making individual plays. Nurse has the athleticism, strength, and skating to be a strong defender, but his results are more of a mixed bag. His cap hit casts a level of scrutiny upon him that will make it difficult for Nurse to appease those looking to take issue with his part of the Oilers cap puzzle.
Nurse is still a positive contributor on the ice, and it is in the team’s best interest to provide better support for him going forward. Cody Ceci has taken a lot of heat over his career, even prior to joining the Oilers, because of his underwhelming possession metrics, yet has routinely made himself the Oilers best option here, now spanning three coaching regimes. Time may have run out, as Knoblauch grew more willing to split up the Nurse-Ceci pairing more often as the season progressed. With Ceci now out the door, the Oilers will need to find a way to get more out of Nurse.
Right side options
Ty Emberson, Troy Stecher, and Josh Brown are the Oilers other right handed defencemen with NHL experience. Brown is not the player that Vincent Desharnais is, but offers a similar effect on the game. Brown might be able to handle in-zone defensive duties, and could make an even greater case for himself by way of penalty killing effectiveness. The departure of Desharnais leaves an important hole in the penalty kill, but it is less likely that Brown fills the role of Nurse’s even strength partner.
Stecher has a lower cap hit than Brown, but this might make his chances at the regular roster better. So too might his fit with Nurse, the duo seeming to be symbiotic stylistic foils to each other. Stecher is not the biggest, instead relying on smarts to be an effective in-zone defender. Like Ceci, Stecher could provide Nurse with some puck moving support, which gives them a leg up over the likes of Desharnais and Brown. Stecher does provide a slightly better history in public possession data than Ceci. He is not the most ideal option, but he is among the best options for a Nurse partner at such a small cap hit.
Enter Ty Emberson, a 24-year-old right shot acquired from the San Jose Sharks. At 6’2”, Emberson brings enough size and skating to be something of an x-factor in this lineup projection. Yes, Emberson was overmatched in a big role for the lowly Sharks last season, and the quality of his team certainly did not help. With that said, Knoblauch coached Emberson with the AHL’s Hartford Wolfpack in 2022–23, where Emberson took a clear step forward.
Based purely on his raw profile, opinions may be split on whether or not Emberson can hold a regular spot in the Oilers lineup, but this history with Knoblauch inspires some confidence. With only 30 games on a tanking team on his NHL resume the jury is still out, but the Oilers might have as good a read on Emberson as anyone. For now, he appears to have a positive impact on team defence, with enough strength and speed to defend in-zone and in transition.
Together, Emberson, Stecher, and Brown will have to account for two thirds of the Oilers right side. On top of this, they will have to feature prominently on the penalty kill, as both right side regulars from last season are gone. Nurse and Kulak will be big helps as left shooting partners, but sometimes chemistry would be beneficial as well.
Prospects in development
There are some prospects en route for the Oilers blueline. Many are at least years away, like Beau Akey or Nikita Yevseyev, but there are two right shots worth mentioning who might be closer.
Philip Kemp got into an NHL game last season. At 25-years-old there might not be much upside, but Kemp might get a chance to prove himself even more this season. Kemp will not be scoring his way into the NHL, but he has gradually become a staple for the AHL Bakersfield Condors lineup. At 6’3”, the right shot has enough skating ability to be an option. His puck moving is based off of support passes, but he might be able to wrestle call up priority over Josh Brown this season. At the very least Kemp joins Ben Gleason, Connor Carrick, and Cam Dineen as depth options who can survive a handful of NHL games if the Oilers run into trouble.
Meanwhile, Max Wanner is a bit of a longer term option. The 2021 seventh-round pick has been steadily improving his game since being drafted, and is coming off a very promising AHL rookie campaign. The 21-year=old should get more time in the AHL, but there is a legitimate NHL prospect here. Wanner has size and a defensive reputation, but has excellent mobility and some offensive prowess as well. Wanner is comfortable walking the blueline, or outright attacking deeper into the zone. His agility is noticeable here, as are his hands, able to stick handle around opponents, and able to make plays on his backhand.
In the big picture, Wanner is a good bet to make an impact on the Oilers at some point. The upside for a top 4 defenceman is certainly there. Adding a defensively responsible right shot would be a boon to the Oilers once new contracts for McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard kick in. Keeping the blueline in the upper half of the league is crucial to capitalising on the McDavid era, and getting quality play from both Broberg and Wanner in the near future would nearly cement that.
Projected opening night pairings
Ekholm — Bouchard
Nurse — Stecher
Kulak — Emberson
Call ups: Brown, Kemp, Gleason, Carrick, Dineen
Cap dance
There are two sides to viewing the Oilers cap situation. First, will be figuring out the season before us. Having some room to operate is always a blessing for optimising the Gameday lineup, but also will allow the team to be more flexible or aggressive at the trade deadline. The other angle is having enough room to re-sign Draisaitl and Bouchard for next season. Naturally, Kane’s injury status will have a big impact here, but the Oilers do have some options for managing the impasse.
Among the more extreme options is trading away substantial salary to facilitate this. Nurse cannot be moved without consent until 2027–28. Kane becomes the next most costly option at $5.25M, but has some trade protection with a 16 teams approved list starting in March. Even assuming that Kane has an appetite for change, his cap hit may require sweetening to shed. Still, getting his two remaining seasons off the books will help re-sign Draisaitl and Bouchard.
Meanwhile, Kulak might still be a trade candidate at some point. Kulak has two years left at $2.75M, meaning some breathing room might be opened up for 2025–26. Without Broberg nipping at Kulak’s heels for icetime, there is little reason for the Oilers to explore this until next summer. The Oilers have done well clearing some space, and clearly have maintained the integrity of their strong roster. Losing two former first-round draft picks, both of whom might have been x-factors for an even stronger roster is not ideal, but as a true contender with a tight cap the Oilers cannot afford to overspend on.
Injury might have added to the difficulties that Holloway and Broberg had in nailing down regular roster spots, but clearly the players felt they were ready for more than the Oilers could give them. It is likely that bigger roles is what is best for their developments, an upside the Blues are happy to bet on, and even overpay for. Especially for Broberg, his cap hit would have greatly diminished fan opinion of his play, as would his playing on the right side. Losing out on former first-round picks is hardly ideal, but it was the more responsible decision for the Oilers in this case.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
