The soon-to-be 24-year-old right shot winger Raphael Lavoie has been in the Edmonton Oilers system for some time now. There have been ups and downs at different points of his career, a mercurial scorer who has a lot of tools to work with, but who has yet to make the leap to being a full time NHLer. At the very least, Lavoie has developed as a member of the AHL Bakersfield Condors, and seems to be making some progress.
Does Lavoie have what it takes to make the jump this season? Let’s take a closer look at his profile and the path he has taken to this point to try to predict an answer.
Strengths and weaknesses
Lavoie is a big body, with good speed and a wicked shot. Lavoie can score from distance on wrist shots and slap shots alike, often off of the rush where his speed is an advantage. Within this context Lavoie is quite effective, a dangerous offensive threat, obvious to the naked eye.
Despite his size, Lavoie is not a very physical or mean player. There is certainly room for Lavoie to be better in contested ice along the boards or at the net front. In truth, the main weakness might be his level of engagement without the puck. This might be a big reason that he has yet to make his way into the NHL lineup, as his AHL scoring is not the issue. Instead, Lavoie will need to establish other areas of effectiveness to get a shot deeper in the Oilers lineup, or to earn his coaches’ trust.
Purely from a stylistic standpoint, Patrik Laine might be a player comparison. Laine is a far more established player, and is of a higher quality, but both are towering scoring wingers who generate most of their offence off of the rush or with shots from a distance. This might serve as a negative as well, as neither provides that well-rounded of a skillset beyond this. At the very least, Lavoie is less expensive than Laine. Until now he has been stuck short of the NHL scoring role he would be most effective in.
Production
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | Pts |
| 2016-17 | Halifax Mooseheads | QMJHL | 32 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2017-18 | Halifax Mooseheads | QMJHL | 68 | 30 | 33 | 63 |
| 2018-19 | Halifax Mooseheads | QMJHL | 62 | 32 | 41 | 73 |
| 2019-20 | Halifax Mooseheads | QMJHL | 30 | 18 | 26 | 44 |
| 2019-20 | Chicoutimi Sagueneens | QMJHL | 25 | 20 | 18 | 38 |
| 2020-21 | Vasby IK | Swe-1 | 51 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| 2020-21 | Bakersfield Condors 🏆 | AHL | 19 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 2021-22 | Bakersfield Condors | AHL | 56 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| 2022-23 | Bakersfield Condors | AHL | 61 | 25 | 20 | 45 |
| 2023-24 | Edmonton Oilers | NHL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-24 | Bakersfield Condors | AHL | 66 | 28 | 22 | 50 |
Lavoie played fantastic in the Allsvenskan during a pandemic-related stopover after his Junior career ended. However, Lavoie was not able to translate this into equivalent success in the AHL at first. Still, Lavoie was able to score at about 0.5 points per game in his first two AHL seasons. While this is not terrible, some of the shine might have come off as Lavoie seemed to stagnate in his sophomore AHL campaign, often going long stretches without a point.
Since then, over the next two seasons, Lavoie has increased his production, having approached a point per game in the AHL last season. Now entering his mid 20s, and no longer waiver exempt, it might be sink or swim time for Lavoie.
Next steps with the Oilers
Last season saw some positives for Lavoie, making the NHL team out of training camp and increasing his production at the AHL level. During his time in the NHL, Lavoie was given suboptimal deployment for his skillset, buried on the fourth line with limited icetime and less skilled linemates. Lavoie failed to have much of an impact as the Oilers got off to a horrid start to the season, ultimately leading to his being placed on waivers.
Such might be the reality until Lavoie can earn a bigger role higher up in the lineup. Showing some growth in the details of his game would make him more effective in a fourth line role, which would give him footing for usage in more ideal settings. The Oilers added a good deal of forward depth since the beginning of last offseason, which does give Lavoie more competition, but also ensures better linemates.
Meanwhile, Lavoie’s contract does carry a slightly smaller cap hit than last season, prioritising salary cap flexibility for the Oilers which might help his being on the roster. Although by relatively minuscule amounts, with the Oilers tight against the cap every dollar counts.
In all, it would be encouraging to see some growth in tight confines. Lavoie has the puck control and frame to be a better net front presence, even if just to post up on defenders and finding passing lanes. Growth in this area might present as some playmaking off the walls during board battles.
2024–25 projection
Lavoie will be coming to training camp set on making the opening night roster. His offensive minded play style will keep him from checking roles. Within the new expanded depth of the Oilers forward group, Lavoie will be among other offensively gifted prospects vying for an NHL job, most of all the recently acquired Matthew Savoie.
While Savoie is more highly touted, Lavoie is more seasoned. This could play into Lavoie’s hands in the short term, but at the very least the Oilers will have some interesting call up options if looking for an offensive jolt.
If Lavoie is able to get a shot in a scoring role, playing alongside some of the Oilers elite talent, he should be able to put up some points. He will need to trust his skills in not overthinking or deferring too much to his linemates, even if they have won the Hart Trophy. It is quite possible that Lavoie could score at a 20-goal, 40-point pace alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. It is unlikely, however, that Lavoie plays a full season’s worth of NHL games. Regardless, Lavoie is not likely to be much help for the Oilers to control possession or to tilt expected goals percentages. Instead, Lavoie is a player who can capitalise on the touches that his teammates generate.
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