Just like everyone else in the Edmonton Oilers’ nation, this recent Stanley Cup run was absolutely mesmerizing to watch. From Connor McDavid’s near unanimous Conn Smythe performance to the continued resilience and comebacks on display, the gutsy play was truly captivating. Much was made of the third line of Mattias Janmark, Adam Henrique, and Connor Brown. As recently pointed out in a response by the X (formerly Twitter) user (@NHL_Sid), the third line was good but statistically speaking, their output appears unsustainable long term.
While it appears likely, and rightfully so, that this line will get to begin the season together, we will discuss the sustainability and explore other options for what Head Coach Kris Knoblauch can do should a shake up be necessary.
Sustainability of the line
Janmark-Henrique-Brown line certainly found their chemistry and touch later in the Oilers’ playoff run. In games 4-7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, this trio contributed at least one goal per game which is kind of production you dream of from your bottom-six group.
Looking at the regular season statistics from last season, we find the following individual performances:
- Adam Henrique:
- Regular Season: 82 GP, 24 G, 27 A; points per game: 0.62
- Playoffs: 17 GP, 4 G, 3 A; points per game: 0.41
- Connor Brown:
- Regular Season: 71 GP, 4 G, 8 A; points per game: 0.17
- Playoffs: 19 GP, 2 G, 4 A; points per game: 0.32
- Mattias Janmark:
- Regular Season: 71 GP, 4 G, 8 A; points per game: 0.17
- Playoffs: 25 GP, 4 G, 4 A; points per game: 0.32
From raw data point we can see that in the playoffs, Janmark and Brown punched above their weight by nearly doubling their point per game output as compared to the regular season while Henrique saw a small dip. So while the chemistry of the line was certainly incredible, the individual pieces of Janmark and Brown were certainly producing at an increased pace as compared to the regular season.
Janmark’s best statistical season came in 2017–18 season when he produced 34 points in 81 games, resulting in 0.42 points-per-game and he is a season removed from 0.38 point-per-game regular season. Brown’ best season came in 2019–20, resulting in 43 points in 71 games or 0.61 points-per-game.
From the analytics standpoint, as mentioned by @NHL_Sid, the production seen by these guys as a line is likely to be unsustainable. A PDO above 1, 1.09 in this case, shows that this trio had their fair share of puck luck and were on average, luckier than they should have been.
The line was also creating some good quality opportunities. Notching a stellar 67% xGF% means that not only did they have puck luck but their shot quality was much better than average. To be able to sustain that over an 82 game season does not seem realistic and just like the law of averages, eventually things must regress to their mean.
Combining the above, what I am trying to say is this: Is it reasonable for them to produce at the same rate as the advanced analytics from the playoffs demonstrate? Likely not. However, combining their playoff chemistry with their previously demonstrated point production potential, it is reasonable to suspect that this line does have a chance to become a reliable secondary scoring source.
So what does Kris Knoblauch do should this line start to stall and falter? Lets explore this further.
Call up Savoie or Lavoie
Raphael Lavoie is a 24 year-old, right shot winger who has not yet had a proper shot at the NHL. He is a big-frame player who knows how to put the puck in the back of the AHL net. He has a good quality shot and can certainly turn on the jets when needed. Slotting him on the right side alongside a proven center like Henrique, who can both shoot and set up a play, will allow Lavoie to get an opportunity to fine tune his shot and register a few goals.
Matthew Savoie, one of the newest Oilers, seems to be a no-brainer when thinking of guys to call up. Ranked as The Oil Rig top prospect, he is known for his great offensive decision making. He has put up 47 points in 23 games with the 2023–24 Moose Jaw Warriors in the season where WHL champions. He is another fast skater, somethings that Oilers lost with the departure of Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. He is also center who can slide a great pass. He can certainly continue working on his shot selection but converting him to a winger to play alongside Adam Henrique or vice versa may certainly do wonders for this young man’s development.
Could Kane be an answer?
News recently broke of Evander Kane undergoing abdominal and hip surgeries for a number of tears and repairs. He will likely be out until at least 2025 though exact timing is not yet clear. With recent additions of Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner, Kane’s spot as a top-six forward is already in jeopardy. However, Kane continues to demonstrate that he is still an effective forward presence in the NHL as he put up 44 points in 77 games last season.
Kane is 33-years-old and Edmonton likely gives him one of the best chances to win the ultimate prize in club hockey. It would certainly depend on whether he would be willing to accept a demotion to a bottom-six role but if he makes a full recovery from his surgery, his addition alongside Henrique and Brown may make this line a potent secondary scoring machine—something Edmonton lacked in large parts last season.
Another prospect potential
Good speed, strong offensive upside and… potential. A former top-10 draft pick who has yet to live up to his expectations and what a chance playing on this line would be for him. Vasily Podkolzin joins Oilers from Vancouver where the forward depth made it hard for Vancouver to be patient. If there is ever a time to strike an opportunity for more ice time on this depth chart, it is now.
Slotting in as a left winger would allow him to play alongside Henrique who could help him learn the offensive ropes of the game. Though Henrique may not be the fastest guy on the ice, Podkolzin and Brown’s speed could help make this an effective breakout line that can catch the opposition’s defenses on odd-man rushes.
Trade acquisition options
If all else fails and the organizational depth chart does not appear to solve the deficiencies, why not acquire a possible linemate through a trade? Stan Bowman’s salary cap position is not enviable with the looming pressure of re-signing McDavid and Bouchard.
One potential trade candidate is Kane. Not only is his place in the lineup in jeopardy, Edmonton is on the hook for his cap hit of $5,125,000 through the 2025–26 season. Not only would dealing his contract open up some wiggle room, it could also provide some flexibility to bring in a rental or two to arm the team for another long playoff run like Frank Vatrano.
What should the Oilers do?
I think that the ultimate decision at this time is to wait. The line of Janmark-Henrique-Brown have certainly earned their stripes to at least begin the season together. They each re-signed with the Oilers this off-season with high hopes for another playoff run.
A lot of argument can be made that their performance may be unsustainable in the long term but until the evidence is in, we should only do one thing: let them be.
