Amidst the Edmonton Oilers turnaround under new Head Coach Kris Knoblauch is the reuniting of a line that has had some success in the past. While it is hardly a surprise to see Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins contributing at a high level for the team, their recent success as a unit is a reminder of just how effective the trio can be together.
Quite simply, the McDavid, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins line is the best line in the NHL. Let’s take a look at their dominance, as well as what it means for the rest of the team behind them.
Individual profiles
As individuals, the strengths of the trio are tremendous, naturally starting with the world’s best player in McDavid. While it might be impossible to describe McDavid’s play in a more succinct way, it hardly captures the absurdity of his ability. McDavid is the only player in the league for whom a relative “down half-season” still sees a top 10 finish in point scoring.
Hyman has continued to add skill and quality into his 30s, a rare enough sight, and has continued to leverage this into more time and space for him and his linemates. With a game built on effort, Hyman excels in tight areas, winning puck battles along the boards and generating high quality shots at the net front. In all, this makes Hyman a fantastic winger to support and maximize elite level linemates.
Nugent-Hopkins is a strong playmaker who relies on his hockey sense and deft passing. These skills allow him to weaponize his linemates by consistently moving the puck to more dangerous positions on the ice. Though this didn’t always result in production early in his career while the Oilers struggled to evolve into the legitimate perennial contender they are today, his production has clearly come around with a stronger team around him, making up for lost time, perhaps. To expect 100 points from Nugent-Hopkins each season is a bit ambitious, but his doing so last season was a significant achievement.
As much as Hyman’s dirty work and puck control is a fantastic compliment to McDavid’s game, Nugent-Hopkins represents an ideal final piece to the line, able to support his teammates by getting them more touches.
Results from the trio
| Line | Minutes | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes | xGoals % |
| Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins | 296.4 | 4.62 | 1.66 | 73.50% |
| Reinhart-Barkov-Rodrigues | 344.8 | 3.2 | 1.91 | 62.60% |
| Fiala-Danault-Moore | 344.2 | 3.31 | 2.04 | 61.90% |
| Martinook-Staal-Fast | 319.8 | 2.7 | 1.67 | 61.80% |
| Guentzel-Crosby-Rust | 288.3 | 4.35 | 2.77 | 61.10% |
| Konecny-Couturier-Foerster | 209.9 | 2.77 | 1.8 | 60.60% |
| Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson | 217.9 | 3.25 | 2.2 | 59.60% |
| Tkachuk-Bennett-Verhaeghe | 313.5 | 3.37 | 2.33 | 59.10% |
| Hagel-Point-Kucherov | 231.2 | 3.53 | 2.44 | 59.10% |
| Zary-Kadri-Pospisil | 241.7 | 2.68 | 1.86 | 59% |
Using stats from moneypuck.com, we can see that the trio has controlled expected goal share at a greater rate than any other line or defence pairing across the league. While the Oilers are, by moneypuck’s measurements, the strongest team in controlling expected goal share league-wide, forming a stable baseline of control, the line has towered over their teammates’ effectiveness in this area as well.
Not only has the Oilers’ big line performed offensively, leading all forward lines in expected goals for per 60 (minimum 100 minutes), but they have also been one of the top-five defensive units, by expected goals against per 60. In other words, though Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins might be thought of as long shots for a best-on-best team Canada roster, were such a thing to exist, the trio has performed well enough that taking one or both of McDavid’s linemates is worth entertaining in such a circumstance.
| Line | Minutes | xGoals % | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes |
| Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins | 296.4 | 73.50% | 4.62 | 1.66 |
| Hyman-McDavid-Draisaitl | 84.1 | 65.90% | 3.99 | 2.07 |
| Hamblin-Ryan-Gagner | 42.2 | 60.60% | 2.84 | 1.85 |
| Kane-Nugent-Hopkins-Hyman | 58.6 | 59.20% | 4.61 | 3.17 |
| Foegele-Ryan-McLeod | 51.3 | 57.90% | 2.57 | 1.87 |
| Foegele-Draisaitl-McLeod | 87.5 | 57% | 4.46 | 3.36 |
| Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele | 62.7 | 55.10% | 3.64 | 2.97 |
| Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl | 45.3 | 46.90% | 3.05 | 3.44 |
| Kane-Draisaitl-Brown | 92.5 | 45.70% | 2.4 | 2.86 |
| Kane-Ryan-Janmark | 48 | 40.60% | 1.63 | 2.38 |
As we can see from looking specifically at the Oilers other line combinations, the duo of Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins is often able to get the most out of whoever plays with them. Simply put, to say that McDavid is carrying his linemates is false, and in fact this line performing so well is a testament to their synergy, bringing out the best in each other.
| Season | Line | Minutes | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes | xGoals % |
| 23/24 | Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins | 296.4 | 4.62 | 1.66 | 73.50% |
| 21/22 | Debrusk-Bergeron-Marchand | 283.3 | 3.92 | 1.61 | 70.90% |
| 20/21 | Tatar-Danault-Gallagher | 253.8 | 3.62 | 1.49 | 70.80% |
| 20/21 | Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone | 221.5 | 4.09 | 1.81 | 69.30% |
| 22/23 | Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman | 398.5 | 4.34 | 2.06 | 67.80% |
| 19/20 | Martinook-Wallmark-Svechnikov | 288.6 | 4.35 | 2.25 | 65.90% |
| 19/20 | Guentzel-Crosby-Simon | 203.7 | 3.48 | 1.8 | 65.90% |
| 20/21 | Hyman-Matthews-Marner | 291.6 | 3.93 | 2.06 | 65.60% |
| 20/21 | Duclair-Barkov-Verhaeghe | 237.9 | 3.51 | 1.84 | 65.60% |
| 20/21 | Lee-Barzal-Eberle | 227.6 | 3.32 | 1.74 | 65.60% |
| 20/21 | Thornton-Matthews-Marner | 211.9 | 3.03 | 1.61 | 65.20% |
| 21/22 | Bunting-Matthews-Marner | 554.7 | 3.87 | 2.09 | 65% |
Here we can see just how well this line stacks up against some of the best lines in the expected goals era. This does beg the question of when the line of McDavid, Hyman, and Nugent-Hopkins will come to be known by a specific name like some of the all time greats, and what that name would be. Absent as well, perhaps not coincidentally, is a Hart Trophy winner in Leon Draisaitl.
Impact on the rest of the lineup
Naturally, the existence of the McDavid, Hyman, and Nugent-Hopkins line, implies a lineup with Draisaitl at second line centre. Splitting up two of the NHL’s all time greats has been a long-standing goal from many armchair coaches across Oil Country, making it as good a place as any to start. While the Oilers overall lineup is quite strong, the team’s strength behind McDavid and Draisaitl is one of the league’s better bluelines, comparing favourably to the towering and skilled blueline of last year’s Stanley Cup winning Vegas Golden Knights.
There is, at least, something to work with in the middle-six forward group. Evander Kane is a natural fit, and his current goal pace is holding up, though his limited effectiveness defensively at even strength and cap hit make it hard to envision him on a checking line.
For now, Warren Foegele finds himself alongside Draisaitl and Kane, playing the best hockey of his career. While Foegele does provide some support to his offensive minded linemates, this does come in large part due to his ability as a forechecker and a shooter. Ryan McLeod, who continues to perform well on a line with Draisaitl might well be the more natural fit thanks to his prowess as a bakchecker and playmaker.
For now, McLeod might be too valuable centering a checking line to move onto Draisaitl’s wing. Perhaps Dylan Holloway can bloom into the NHL centre he seems so close to becoming, or perhaps a trade for a checking centre at the deadline. In all, the depth has been enough for the Oilers to climb their way out of the hole they dug themselves to start the season, but finding a way to bolster the Draisaitl and Kane line while keeping the third line strong might yet be necessary for the team to climb to level level of their ultimate aspirations.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
2 Comments