There is little doubt that the Edmonton Oilers forward group has elite talent. With MVP talents in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way, and with both Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman hitting new offensive totals in recent seasons, the Oilers have a formidable group of top end talent in the lineup. The depth of the forward group has come along as well, employing a number of talented players who can handle middle-six usage.
Despite this, there are some questions surrounding how the group fits together. Of course a lineup is not static, instead a dynamic process within each game, morphing based on circumstance. At times McDavid and Draisaitl will be deployed together, on the power play or late in games the Oilers are trailing, but in general the Oilers have consistently sought balance by giving each of their superstar centres their own line.
McDavid has found a great deal of success alongside Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman, though swapping either out for Evander Kane seems to have been fruitful, particularly for Kane’s play. Meanwhile, things have not gone as well for Draisaitl’s line, as the Oilers have continued to experiment in finding the right mix. Let’s take a look at the options available to the team, what has worked, and what might work to bring the best out of Draisaitl.
Defining support for the star players
Draisaitl, though still performing incredibly well, is having a tough season by his remarkable standards, evidenced by depressed goal totals and a diminished control of play. These control of play results have been especially poor with Kane on his line. Together, Draisaitl and Kane have been exacerbating each other’s defensive issues. While the reputation and offensive upside of Kane is a tantalising prospect as a winger for Draisaitl, the truth is that maximising Draisaitl’s offensive effectiveness requires linemates who will help to control play. On their own, both Draisaitl and Kane appreciate linemates who can provide that support, but together the requirement of a hypothetical third linemate is raised even further.
Thanks to his sublime talents with the puck, Draisaitl is able to create and capitalise on scoring chances when the Oilers have possession. Draisaitl can bring out the offensive capabilities of linemates because of his ability as a shooter and as a playmaker.
Based on these facts, it would be beneficial to deploy Draisaitl along linemates with more defensive substance than offensive skill. This means elevating players that are not as dynamic and skilled as one might envision in top six roles.
Options to fill the spot
The Oilers have a number of middle-six forwards beyond Kane who might be able to support Draisaitl. Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele, and Adam Henrique are the most viable, as others such as Corey Perry, Derek Ryan, and Connor Brown are more confined to bottom-six roles. Dylan Holloway might be a long shot option, though Holloway has yet to earn status as a full time NHLer. Of the long shot options, Perry offers some utility as a net front presence, and has been a positive side of possession when playing up the Oilers lineup.
Under the parameters of keeping the McDavid-Hyman-Nugent-Hopkins trio together, this leaves us with five reasonable options for Draisaitl’s linemates: McLeod, Foegele, Henrique, Perry, and Kane. As a disclaimer, one of McLeod or Henrique is required to centre the third line.
McLeod and Foegele have a long history together, dominating possession with virtually every linemate they are deployed with. This success has translated on a line with Draisaitl as well. While this alone might be enough to convince some of its long term viability, there are issues concerning the reputations of Foegele and McLeod as too limited offensively to occupy such places in the lineup.
A shooter who can get in on the forecheck, Foegele is having the finest offensive season of his career, though this still might not be enough to justify a place in the top six. While Hyman has continued to add to his offensive game into his 30s, expecting Foegele to do so as well is optimistic, especially within the confines of this season. The case on whether or not to re-sign Foegele this summer (and for how much) will be an interesting one, as he has continued to grow his game as a member of the Oilers.
McLeod, on the other hand, might have a greater likelihood of unlocking a new level of offensive upside. McLeod does have some playmaking ability that seems to come out more often alongside Draisaitl. McLeod’s speed is an asset on the forecheck and the backcheck. Combined with his ability to play centre, McLeod seems to be a solid defensive support to Draisaitl. There is room for McLeod to improve his goal scoring at the net front, but as a playmaker the best way for the Oilers to try to get more out of McLeod is by deploying him with better scorers.
Finally, Henrique might be the best option, combining several relevant traits from these other forwards. Like Kane, Henrique has a history of production, headlined by his shot. Like McLeod, Henrique can play centre, and generally has a positive influence on possession. Henrique has yet to find a consistent place in the lineup, though to be fair he has yet to get a chance on Draisaitl’s line.
Limitations to the lineups
Although building Draisaitl a solid line is important, it is not the only priority for the Oilers coaching staff. The Oilers must build a third line that is functional, and often that means that they must be able to hold up as a checking line. Though McLeod and Foegele have bolstered Draisaitl’s possession at times, they are a known quantity in this checking role. Kane, on the other hand, seems to be antithetical to a checking line, meaning the Oilers might not have a choice but to keep Kane in the top six.
With a limited number of games remaining on the regular season schedule, the Oilers will have to be decisive in which combinations they decide to experiment with. It is imperative that the Oilers get a look at what Henrique looks like on Draisaitl’s line. Perhaps one of Henrique, McLeod, or Foegele will be enough to make a line with Kane and Draisaitl viable. This would be the simplest solution, and would keep the roles of the second and third lines concise.
| Rank | Line | Minutes | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes | xGoals % |
| 1 | Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins | 417.2 | 4.5 | 2.01 | 69.10% |
| 2 | Kane-McDavid-Hyman | 53.7 | 3.58 | 1.68 | 68.10% |
| 3 | Hyman-Draisaitl-McDavid | 251.8 | 4.22 | 2.1 | 66.80% |
| 4 | Holloway-McLeod-Foegele | 51.2 | 3.17 | 1.76 | 64.30% |
| 5 | Foegele-McLeod-Perry | 52.9 | 3.4 | 2.15 | 61.20% |
| 6 | Kane-Nugent-Hopkins-Hyman | 83.1 | 4.12 | 2.67 | 60.60% |
| 7 | Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele | 72 | 4.25 | 2.84 | 60% |
| 8 | Holloway-McLeod-Brown | 53.5 | 2.58 | 1.91 | 57.50% |
| 9 | Foegele-McLeod-Ryan | 52.4 | 2.52 | 1.95 | 56.40% |
| 10 | Foegele-Draisaitl-McLeod | 143.1 | 3.48 | 3.1 | 52.90% |
| 11 | Kane-Nugent-Hopkins-Janmark | 49.4 | 1.82 | 1.94 | 48.40% |
| 12 | Kane-Draisaitl-Brown | 93.1 | 2.39 | 2.84 | 45.70% |
How to apply this in practice
The truth is that the Oilers will be switching up their lines throughout the playoffs, both during and in between games. One deployment tactic that is used by teams is to keep a pair of forwards together consistently, forming the identity of their respective lines. The Oilers are clearly comfortable being more flexible than this, but it can be a useful tool to conceptualise the hypothetical.
Right now, McDavid and Hyman seem to be inseparable, but the Oilers seem to be without a clear running mate. There will be situations that loading Draisaitl onto the ice with this duo is called for, but a whole game might leave too little elsewhere in the linuep. Perhaps, on a full game basis, it should be McDavid with either Hyman or Draisaitl. Foegele and McLeod have been the duo that defined the third line, and without them the line has struggled to cement a new identity. There is a lot to like about. As a line Foegele-Draisaitl-McLeod has done well, but that may not be what best serves the team.
Seeing as Kane has performed at his best with McDavid and Hyman, and in a smaller sample size has produced comparable results to Nugent-Hopkins in that spot, the Oilers might even choose to break up the top line for the good of the team. Nugent-Hopkins with Draisaitl and Henrique does have a ring to it, providing Draisaitl with a great deal of dimension and quality. Perry does bring experience, snarl, and perhaps enough skill in front of the net to fit nicely on a line with Foegele and McLeod. Derek Ryan has excelled here before, and could once more, but the greater upside is with Perry in this spot.
Proposed lines
Kane — McDavid — Hyman
Nugent-Hopkins — Draisaitl — Henrique
Foegele — McLeod — Perry
Janmark — Carrick — Brown
Extras/Call ups: Ryan, Holloway, Gagner, Hamblin
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
