With rumours that former first-round draft pick Philip Broberg might be on his way out of the Edmonton Oilers organisation sooner rather than later, fans across Oilers Country are lamenting the team’s recent draft history. Though draft records are ultimately held for or against a team’s GM in most cases, it should be noted that the Oilers have already changed their approach, hiring Rick Pracey as Director of Amateur Scouting this past summer. For his part, GM Ken Holland seems to have a waning influence on the team as well.
While Broberg might be the latest in a line of first-round picks that haven’t been able to make a significant long term impact on the team, the Oilers have had a share of of successes as well, including Evan Bouchard who is continuing to blossom in an ideal role as the top power play defenceman, and alongside an ideal partner in Mattias Ekholm.
While opinions are slowly becoming more unanimous regarding the pair of once high risk/high upside defence prospects, there are some cases that exist more so in the shades of grey between the two extremes. Ryan McLeod finds his stock somewhere in this area, so let’s take a look at what to make of McLeod’s contributions to the organisation, and how we might evaluate the Oilers selection in his case.
McLeod’s profile
Just as we might make some comparisons between Bouchard and Broberg, we might see some similarities between McLeod and Dylan Holloway. McLeod had a strong draft profile, grading as a consensus top round talent. McLeod was thought of as a centre with decent size, excellent skating skills and speed, and had legitimate offensive production. While McLeod was thought to have some potential as a scorer, particularly as a playmaker, there were not necessarily top end offensive tools that might’ve had him in contention for a top 10 selection.
As McLeod rose through the ranks his offensive game settled into a more modest reputation. In his early NHL preseason appearances, McLeod seemed to be quite far from cementing a meaningful role on the power play, putting a damper on his prospects. Instead, it would be the application of his talents on the defensive side of the puck that vaulted him into the NHL, and eventually up the lineup.
McLeod quietly proved himself capable in a true third line checking centre role last season, and is doing so once again this season. Forming lines that produce stellar defensive results, including the very effective line alongside Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan, McLeod provides the Oilers with a centre who contrasts the skill sets of the elite offensive players ahead of him on the depth chart.
Relying on his speed, McLeod is particularly effective at defending in transition. Rush chances against are becoming an increasingly popular stat, including some thought that it is a key area for predicting playoff success, meaning that McLeod brings some valuable aspects to the lineup. As a centre, McLeod pairs well with wingers who are strong forecheckers, as he did with Foegele last season, as well as Connor Brown and Holloway this season. McLeod is still undergoing development, slowly gaining a larger role on the penalty kill.
Should more be expected from McLeod?
Especially given his modest cap hit, it is hard to deny that the Oilers are getting value on McLeod’s current contract. This type of shutdown centre is an important piece to a true contending team, though certainly not the most glorious. While some might be willing to call selecting McLeod a draft win on this basis alone, others might not be as easily convinced. In particular, McLeod has already faced some criticisms for a lack of production this season, albeit amidst a start to the season so terrible that nothing was too sacred to criticise.
The grievance from those looking for more from McLeod is often coming from an expectation of more offence. Though McLeod is performing quite well defensively, his lines have failed to generate much offence at all this season. It does beg the question of how much scoring the Oilers need from a third line centre, and if McLeod is capable of delivering that. Of course, the Oilers could easily rotate all three of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to centre, in which case McLeod would still bear an affordable salary as a fourth line centre.
How McLeod can improve
Because of his speed and his playmaking, McLeod was successful in operating from the perimeter at lower levels. While McLeod has some skills that are useful from here, he would be better served by continuing to move his offensive game closer to the front of the net. If McLeod was focused on earning a power play spot he might be best served honing a skill set from either the high slot bumper or the net front. Especially on the Oilers, this is a lofty and long term goal.
While Zach Hyman is proof that a player’s offensive game can continue to improve throughout their careers, this is far from the norm. Hoping that McLeod might develop into a formidable offensive threat at this point might be a bit ambitious. With that being that, McLeod has already shown a variety of useful offensive tools, and his lack of production is likely just as much due to his linemates.
McLeod’s speed is a plus offensively, and he is able to leverage that in transition, often supporting breakouts thanks to his skating and smart support passing. His greatest trait in the offensive zone is likely his playmaking, which might highlight the effect that his recent linemates have had on his production. At this point of their careers, none of Foegele, Holloway, Brown, Ryan, or Mattias Janmark are reliable scoring threats. It’s fairly unreasonable to expect much scoring from McLeod based on his usage in the Oilers lineup, his linemates, and his lack of a power play role.
In the past, McLeod has seen a few looks higher up in the lineup. While one might argue that the Oilers superstars could make most players glow, McLeod did show some chemistry with Draisaitl. McLeod’s offensive skill set is unlocked with an elite shooter to finish off his passes, and his speed helps stretch opposing defences to open up more room for Draisaitl. Even without significantly improving his offensive tools, McLeod would post much greater offensive totals alongside Draisaitl, or even other legitimate scoring options such as Hyman or Evander Kane.
At this point, McLeod is too valuable as a checking centre for the Oilers to entertain such a move. There is no better fit for the role on the team, and quite frankly none who are that close to fulfilling the requirements either. Ryan and Janmark are smart, responsible, reliable players, but are better suited for the wing at this point. James Hamblin is merely getting his feet wet as an NHLer, hardly ready to check top players on opposing teams on a regular basis. Other options like Brad Malone and Lane Pederson were not able to make the NHL team. Perhaps Holloway might be an option at some point, but he is still trying to prove himself as an NHLer in general, or even staying healthy, let alone as a centre.
McLeod’s future with the Oilers
In all, it’s clear that McLeod is a draft hit in the late first-round. He is providing strong play at an exceptional value, and projects to be a stabilising presence on the roster both on the ice and against the cap for the next few years, at least. If anything, McLeod’s lack of offence to this point might work in the Oilers favour, likely depressing his contract demands.
The Oilers have signed McLeod to two short deals coming out of his entry level contract. As time passes McLeod will have greater negotiating rights and power, meaning McLeod is likely to see a raise on his next deal. It would make a lot of sense for the Oilers to try to make a longer term commitment, though buying a player’s UFA seasons often brings a higher price tag. The Oilers might be forced to go short term, or even to align the deal to end as McLeod reaches UFA eligibility to keep the current cost as low as possible.
On the other hand, McLeod’s biggest supporters might argue that the Oilers should try to lock him up longer term, perhaps even beyond four years. With the salary cap back on the rise, having McLeod signed through his late 20s, and into McDavid and Draisaitl’s next deals, would provide the Oilers with good value with a cap hit between $2-3M.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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