In the 82-game regular season, the Edmonton Oilers had five different opponents where the season series consisted of four games. Of course, they’re all Pacific Division teams, and for 2023–24, they were: The Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings, Seattle Kraken, and of course, the Vancouver Canucks.
Edmonton had a winning record against the first four teams, going 4–0–0 against Anaheim, 3–1–0 against Calgary, 3–1–0 against Los Angeles, and 4–0–0 against Seattle. That’d be good for a combined record of 14–2–0.
We all know what happened against Vancouver though. Edmonton was swept by Vancouver, earning zero points out of a possible eight. The back-to-back losses to open the season made Edmonton spiral as their October was outright disastrous. Their end-of-season matchup had first-overall implications for the Pacific Division, and Vancouver got the best of Edmonton again.
However, while a 0–4–0 record against Vancouver may motivate Edmonton in this playoff matchup, there’s plenty of reason to believe the Oilers will have more things go their way over a seven-game series.
The season series stats
There’s no denying that the scoreboard was not favourable for Edmonton whatsoever. However, there are other stats that genuinely suggest the 0–4–0 record for Edmonton was a result of both the Oilers being terribly unlucky and the Canucks being unreasonably lucky.
Using stats from Natural Stat Trick, we can look at how the season series played out.
On-ice metrics at 5v5
Looking at score- and venue-adjusted 5v5 numbers as well as all situations, the Oilers posted the following numbers:
| Situation | CF% | HDCF% | xGF% | GF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5v5 SVA | 57.3 | 61.6 | 57.6 | 18.2 |
| All | 59.8 | 59.6 | 56.0 | 25.0 |
On aggregate, the Oilers dominated offensively in the season series, they just got goalied in the offensive zone and their goaltending was suspect in their own zone.
A look at PDO
We can also look at PDO to give these numbers a little more context. PDO is the summation of a team’s shooting and save percentage. It acts as a proxy for “luck” that a team may experience. The expectation is that any team should be at about 100% given league-average shooting and save percentages. When a team is below 100%, they’re “unlucky” and when they are above, they are “lucky.”
The Oilers had a 5v5 SVA PDO of 87.8% in the four games, while the Canucks had 112.2%. When you isolate PDO into four games versus the same opponent, it makes sense that Edmonton’s 87.8% is 12.2% away from 100, which exactly complements Vancouver’s 112.2%. So there isn’t much value in comparing these two numbers in isolation as the two numbers will always be the same distance away from 100, just one is negative and the other positive.
The value of PDO can come more when comparing these two values with how the two teams did over the course of the full season. Edmonton’s 5v5 SVA PDO for the whole year was 100.1%, while the Canucks led the league with 102.6%.
So Edmonton’s performance in the season series was considerably unlucky as their 5v5 SVA PDO was nearly perfectly 100%. Vancouver, meanwhile, was considerably luckier in both the series and over the season as a whole. Their 102.6% PDO means that their 5v5 SVA shooting and saving were a combined 2.6% better than what a team might typically expect in a season. That’s a whole lot of extra goals and saves.
What this means for the series
Looking at both the on-ice metrics and PDO, it’s a sign that Edmonton just needs to stick to their game plan and not let the results of the season series weigh them down. The Oilers know they can objectively outplay the Canucks, plain and simple. Edmonton can hope for a little bit of luck—and a little bit of luck will go a long way—but the reality is that Edmonton has seen on-ice outputs against this very opponent that suggests the Oilers can be the better team and that the four regular season losses are nothing more than chirping fodder for the Canucks.
It’ll be a series of mind games and physical battles as these two teams set to face off in a playoff matchup for just the third time in the Western Canadian rivalry.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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