The Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks are heading into a highly anticipated second match up between western Canadian foes beginning on Wednesday at Rogers Arena. The Oilers have had the best record in the league since the hiring of Kris Knoblauch, but the Canucks had Edmonton’s number this season, going 4–0 in the season series but three of those came during the Jay Woodcroft era.
Stuart Skinner has made six appearances against the Canucks in his career, and overall they have not gone great. He is 1–4–0 with a goals against average of 4.01 and save percentage of .855. The personnel has largely stayed the same, but under Rick Tocchet, the Canucks have employed a defensive shell and focused on maximizing high danger chances, specifically off the rush.
The past goals on Skinner
https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/edm-vs-van/2023/11/06/2023020179
Based on the video, over the past two years, there’s two distinct trends of attack from the Canucks.
Goals off rush chances
Over the last 3.5 games that Skinner has played against the Canucks in the past two years, there have been nine goals that have come off the rush. A big part of this came from earlier this year, when the Oilers were leaking high danger rush chances left and right under Woodcroft. With Knoblauch, Paul Coffey and Mark Stuart seemingly mitigating that problem, there should just be a lot less of the chances available. When they do go in, there’s two main methods of attack on the rush.
The first is the royal road pass, which has the puck change sides of the ice. Skinner’s skating has improved a lot since graduating from the AHL, but he’s still not the most apt at getting from side to side, so the Canucks have been able to pass around him. The Oilers defence doesn’t help matters, as there was numerous times where they would take themselves completely out of the picture by either overplaying the shooter or sliding and allowing Vancouver to maneuver around them.
The second method attack was hesitating before shooting, specifically to just over the pad on either the blocker or glove side. What was happening on these goals is that Skinner would get locked in and freeze, more or less making himself too rigid to effectively react to those shots just over the pads, which require the further reaction distance for his gloves. Compared to the 2023 playoffs, Skinner has lowered his glove positioning slightly while typically maintaining a more upright stance through his body. Additionally, his looser demeanor that was evident in the first round should help him play free and easy, being able to react to pucks as he sees them.
Shots through traffic
The second reoccuring theme with the goals that Skinner was giving up came on pucks through traffic and layered screens. This is going to be rough for any goalie, as not being able to see the puck eliminates the chance to properly track and react to it. This has not been a strength for Skinner, although I believe he’s made some strides since the All-Star break in this facet of his game. The biggest area for improvement has come from the Oilers defence.
In those first three games of the season, the Oilers defence was getting crossed up in their assignments. Woodcroft and Dave Manson had transitioned to a zone defence from the man-to-man scheme they had previously run in the defensive zone, and it was a steep learning curve for the Oilers. Typically most NHL systems, specifically on the penalty kill, will have the the shot blocker take the lane that covers the far side of the net, allowing them to also cut down on some net front pass lanes. This leaves the short side lane for the goalie, and makes this their first read when trying to find the puck as it should be open most of the time. Early in the season, the defenders (Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, and Vincent Desharnais were particularly guilty), would chase their checks like that previously, crossing in front of Skinner, making their own goalie have to recalibrate to find the puck again.
With a lot of the d-zone figured out, and Skinner becoming quicker at identifying when he’s lost sight so he can reset, this wasn’t as big of a deal against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round as it had been last year. The Kings still generated some goals with traffic, but that’s why it can be such an effective attack when those chances are available and is fully engrained into playoff hockey at this point. The one thing the Oilers will need to make sure they do is tie up sticks. Along with the traffic overall, Vancouver and Los Angeles have been previously successful in getting tips through that traffic that Skinner has not been able to pick up.
Vancouver versus Nashville
Here are the game by game breakdowns from Clear Sight Analytics from the Canuck series against the Nashville Predators.
Games 1-4
Game 5
Game 6
One thing that becomes very clear is that after a very even first four games where the Canucks did not deserve their 3–1 series adavantage, the Canucks returned to playing their Tocchet style hockey, dominating the high danger chance share. Having said that, the Canucks volume against the Predators indicates that there might be some struggles to generate those looks consistently.
The Canucks attack in the series looked very similar to their attack against the Oilers in the regular season. Of the 12 goals they scored on Jusse Saros, six involved a pass over the slot line or royal road, escalating the danger by changing the angle on the goalie to open up shooting space. Based on the video, the Predators were employing a man-on-man defensive structure, which can be prone to allowing these seam passes when it breaks down, as the Oilers found out in their second round series against Vegas last year. With Knoblauch now employing a zone defensive scheme, this should be mostly mitigated, as it wasn’t an issue in any of the four games during this season.
Another five were due to traffic and layered screens. This hasn’t been a strong point of Skinner’s game, but Saros was particularly poor at it this season, in part due to his smaller stature.
How to get the job done
Skinner has matched up against divisional rival Vancouver in 4.5 games over the last two years, and for the most part, it hasn’t gone well. The Canucks have been able to create goals by making slot line passes and targeting just over his pads along the rush, along with being able to create numerous looks through layered screens and tips. The Canucks continued this method of attack against the Predators, and were able to win the series by capitalizing on their high danger chances created in similar chances despite lacking volume.
The Oilers and Skinner have made changes that should help mitigate against this attack, as they were part of larger problems that Edmonton had overall early. Since Coach Tocchet took over the Canucks bench, there has been a strong emphasis on preventing high danger chances against while focusing on almost only taking high danger chances for, so the public numbers might not look great for Skinner even if he plays good. If Skinner is able to carry forward his strong play after bouncing back from a tough Game 2 in the first round, the Oilers should be sitting pretty good in their second round match up.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
