The Edmonton Oilers kick off their series against the Vancouver Canucks tonight at Rogers Arena, as the last two Canadian teams do battle for a spot in the Western Conference Finals. And while the oddsmakers have the Oilers taking this one, the Canucks are not going to be an easy team to beat.
Not only are they well-built, with a handful of elite players, they are also very deep and able to line match effectively. They are also very stingy, not giving up chances easily, and also have the offensive firepower to score when given opportunities.
Here’s how the Oilers can come out and win the series.
Special Teams win series
If the Oilers are to win the series, they need both sides of their special teams to be at their best again this series. Against the Los Angeles Kings last series, the Kings had the best special teams of any team in the playoffs, not allowing a single power play goal against and scoring on 45% of their chances with the extra man.
These numbers are likely not sustainable forever, as most top power plays click at about a 25% pace, but if the Oilers can score at about that pace, it should give them a good chance of winning the series. Conversely, the Oilers will need to keep their penalty kill strong if they are to beat the Canucks.
Vancouver has more weapons on the power play than the Kings, but has also struggled in their past series to score. They finished their last series with just a 15% power play rate, among the worst of all teams in the first round. That being said, their penalty kill finished with a 91%, third best among all teams in the first round. The Oilers will need to exploit them on the power play and keep their penalty kill strong to beat them.
Protecting off the rush
One area where the Cancuks have been particularly impactful has been their ability to score off the rush. Over the first half of the season, the Canucks scored 22% of their goals in this way, utilizing their speedy wingers in particular to speed past defenders.
Against the Oilers and particularly in the four games that Stuart Skinner has been in net over the past couple of seasons, the Canucks scored nine goals on the rush. Mind you, many of those goals were scored prior to Kris Knoblauch taking over and the Oilers prior to him would leak goals on the rush. However, this is still the M.O. of the Canucks, and will need to be something that the Oilers are able to control against.
The Canucks push hard early to score, then when they do get the first goal, they exploit on the rush when teams push all their players forward to search for the equalizing goal. They are also able to utilize cross-seam passes, forcing the goalie to adjust laterally on the fly. As we have written about, Skinner is not as strong at moving this direction. Putting bodies and sticks into passing lanes will be a major key to success for the Oilers.
Finally, the Canucks also love to get their defencemen up on the rush, particularly Nikita Zadorov and Quinn Hughes. By adding a fourth body to the rush, it creates a stronger numerical advantage on the rush and makes them more dangerous. The Oilers will need their forwards to be defensively responsible and backcheck reliably if they are to limit the Canucks’ scoring chances.
Depth strength
The Canucks have loaded up this year, pushing their chips into the middle in the hopes of a long playoff run. In particular, the additions of Zadorov and Elias Lindholm from Calgary make them substantially more dangerous, plus being former Flames, they will be relishing the chance to punish the Oilers this playoffs.
As much as he and his agent may disagree, Zadorov is not nearly as much of a factor as Lindholm should be in the Canucks’ lineup. He currently slots in on the teams’ third line and makes the team substantially tougher to play against. Lindholm is just a couple seasons removed from being a 40-goal scorer, and was once a the Flames’ top centre. On top of that, he’s a very defensively responsible centre and a top penalty killer for the team.
This poses a big problem for the Oilers, where the Canucks’ depth couple prove problematic. Currently the Canucks are expected to lineup as follows, with Pettersson expected to replace Aman on the top line:
The Oilers probably try to match the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lines against the top two lines of the Canucks, with the hopes that they can outplay at least one of the two lines. Those two should be able to do some damage against these lines, and the Oilers will need them to.
The challenge will be how the Oilers’ third and fourth lines will matchup against the Lindholm group. Ryan McLeod with Dylan Holloway and Corey Perry is expected to be the team’s third line in game one as the Oilers are projected to be without Adam Henrique to start the series. Holloway has been a revelation this series, with two goals in five games against the Kings, but Perry looked noticeably slower than he should have in the first series. The Oilers will need that third line to be elite against the deep Canucks’ side.
Can the Oilers take this series?
The Oilers on paper are the better team, and it’s especially hard to bet against McDavid and Draisaitl in any playoff series. However, while the rest of the hockey world has been quick to write this series off as an easy win for the Oilers, do not discount the Canucks. While both teams had relatively easy paths to this point, this second round matchup will not be a cakewalk for either team.
The Canucks are a strong side, and what makes them particularly pesty for the Oilers is their depth. However, they will be running one of their backup goalies for the first part of the series, which is obviously not ideal for a team with Thatcher Demko as their starter. Arturs Silovs was fantastic in relief in Round 1, but the Oilers’ top stars should give him a much tougher test.
If the Oilers can continue to dominate on special teams, win the depth battle, and play sound on defence, particularly against rush chances, they should be able to earn a date in the Western Conference finals against either the Colorado Avalanche or Dallas Stars.
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