The Edmonton Oilers have ousted the Los Angeles Kings and moved on to a second-round date with the Vancouver Canucks. They did it in one game less than I predicted no less, so I guess Kris Knoblauch didn’t have time to read the letter I sent him.
I’m ashamed to say that at the start of the playoffs I predicted that the Canucks would beat the Oilers. I relied heavily on the season series to help make my predictions this year, and even though you won’t get rich betting against McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers were shown the door all four times they faced the Canucks this year.
My position has changed drastically since the start of the playoffs. Watching the Canucks beat the Predators was like watching two ugly fish on the beach race to the water before they run out of gas, you find yourself thinking neither is likely to make it. If the Canucks play in the second round like they did in the first then Edmonton will fill the net, especially considering the goalie trouble that Vancouver is now experiencing. Vancouver was actually propped up by their bottom-six—their third line being far more impressive than their second. This brings me to the topic of the day; looking at Edmonton’s bottom-six during the last round and what they need to do next round.
The Oilers’ bottom-six
The bottom two lines for the Oilers had some bright moments against the Kings, punctuated by Dylan Holloway‘s two goals in Game 2. Even though the Oilers ended up losing that game in overtime, the nature of the goals was very encouraging. Both were wrist shots from a middling distance without a heavy screen. It felt like Holloway could break out at that point and become the unlikely player who ends up being a huge contribution in the playoffs. Unfortunately, he didn’t record any more points in the series but those brief glimpses of greatness showed what he is capable of and bringing him back for the playoffs will turn out to be a wise move.
Even though Edmonton’s even strength play was not spectacular in Game 5 there were some bright shifts by the new line of Holloway-McLeod-Perry. Moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the second line and replacing him with Henrique from the third line seemed like a bold move considering how dominant that first line of RNH-McDavid-Hyman was during the regular season but Henrique seems to be subbing in acceptably well and Henrique’s skill set seems to fit better on a line where he isn’t expected to be the best offensive player.
A look at bottom-six stats
Here are the first-round playoff teams this year ranked by their points per game on points scored by their bottom-six forwards. Stats accurate as of May 5 from MoneyPuck.com and NHL.com.
| Team | Points Per Game |
|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 0.53 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 0.40 |
| Dallas Stars | 0.33 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 0.31 |
| Florida Panthers | 0.30 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 0.30 |
| New York Islanders | 0.30 |
| Boston Bruins | 0.29 |
| New York Rangers | 0.29 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 0.23 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 0.20 |
| Nashville Predators | 0.19 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 0.17 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 0.14 |
| Washington Capitals | 0.13 |
| Las Vegas Golden Knights | 0.11 |
Note that most teams have bottom-six players on their first or second power play unit whereas Edmonton doesn’t have any on their first power play unit, so Oilers bottom-six players aren’t benefiting from that. This is especially exaggerated against Edmonton since their first power play has been so effective that the second unit gets far fewer opportunities than that of any other team. As a side note, Edmonton is scoring at a league-leading 45% success rate on the power play this playoffs. That’s basically guaranteeing at least two goals a game.
Unfortunately for Edmonton, their bottom-six is scoring the seventh fewest points per game among the first-round playoff teams and they are last among the eight teams that have made it into the second round.
The good thing about the Oilers is that they have one of the best offences in the league so it maybe isn’t completely necessary for their bottom-six to score mountains of goals. Their time is probably better served by playing solid defensive hockey. And they are pretty solid at this actually.
Over the admittedly very short playoff time they have played together, Foegele-McLeod-Perry have the ninth lowest expected goals against per 60 minutes in the NHL and the Holloway-Carrick-Janmark line is 43rd best which doesn’t sound great but that includes every line to play more than 10 minutes together in the playoffs. Those lines may or may not be playing together at the start of the next series but the bottom-six will be some combination of at least five of those players.
Hoping for more
All said and done, you would definitely like your bottom lines, at least your third line, to be scoring more often. It may end up hamstringing the Oilers since the top two lines and the power play can’t really take too many nights off if they expect to win. Even though McDavid and Draisaitl deserve the money they make, and more besides, it is hard to create a deep team with those contracts weighing on you. The cap is expected to rise by approximately $4 million next year though so that may help to relieve some of the financial pressure that Ken Holland tries to work around every trade deadline.
If the third line can bring a little more offence to the table though, the Oilers will be in good shape to make a deep run.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
