The Edmonton Oilers are riding high, as many preseason predictions proclaimed, but the path to this point has had moments of turbulence. There is a clear inflection point, as the Oilers performance has taken off after the coaching change, replacing Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch, yet across the lineup and through the organisation there is minutiae at play. The length and attrition that is an NHL season will have its ups and downs for each individual, let alone as a team.
Perhaps even predating the Oilers coaching change, notably one of the few positives to cling to from the final season of the Woodcroft era, Warren Foegele is having the best season of his career. Let’s take a look at some of his stats and discuss how that impacts the Oilers season.
Is Foegele a late bloomer?
| Season | Age | Tm | GP | G | A | PTS | SPCT | ATOI |
| 2017-18 | 21 | CAR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 11:56 |
| 2018-19 | 22 | CAR | 77 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 9.4 | 12:30 |
| 2019-20 | 23 | CAR | 68 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 10.1 | 13:43 |
| 2020-21 | 24 | CAR | 53 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 14:09 |
| 2021-22 | 25 | EDM | 82 | 12 | 14 | 26 | 8.5 | 12:37 |
| 2022-23 | 26 | EDM | 67 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 10.3 | 12:42 |
| 2023-24 | 27 | EDM | 44 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 9.3 | 13:53 |
At first glance we notice that through 44 games, Foegele is already at the production he usually brings over a full season. Only three goals off of his career high, Foegele is on pace for about 19. Encouraging and unexpectedly this has not come due to a rise in shooting percentage, which is often thought of as luck. His 16 assists is only one off of his career high, and 11 have been primary assists, often seen as more sustainable. His per game icetime is up, if only slightly, and being elevated to Leon Draisaitl’s wing is a boon.
| Season | Age | Team | G/60 | A/60 | A1/60 | A2/60 | PTS/60 | S/60 |
| 2017-18 | 21 | CAR | 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 7.5 | 15.1 |
| 2018-19 | 22 | CAR | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 6.6 |
| 2019-20 | 23 | CAR | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 8.3 |
| 2020-21 | 24 | CAR | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 7.3 |
| 2021-22 | 25 | EDM | ||||||
| 2022-23 | 26 | EDM | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2 | 8.9 |
| 2023-24 | 27 | EDM | 1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 10.6 |
From these per 60 stats we can see some interesting deviations from Foegele’s career normals. In particular his shots per 60 is up, explaining how he has scored more without an elevated shooting percentage. His primary assist rate is up as well, which certainly lends itself to reflecting the quality of linemates that Foegele has seen since his move up the lineup.
The effect that Draisaitl and others have had on Foegele’s assist totals is fairly undeniable, though it might also influence his shots per 60 rate. At least anecdotally, Foegele has looked more decisive in shooting, as well as more explosive off the rush. Still, his offensive impact is clearly enhanced with high quality linemates, which he has enjoyed often this season, seeing time with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Evander Kane more than Derek Ryan or Mattias Janmark.
Lineup options for Foegele
As long as Foegele is deployed higher in the lineup, we should expect the offensive production to follow. Foegele might be able to hit close to 20 goals and 50 points, shattering his career highs in his age 27 season. At this point, even returning to his usual third line role and scoring rates, career highs seem very achievable for Foegele.
| Player | Season | Team | GP | TOI All | Off | Def | Pens | GAR |
| Warren Foegele | 18-19 | CAR | 77 | 962 | -2.8 | -3.5 | 3.8 | -2.5 |
| Warren Foegele | 19-20 | CAR | 68 | 932.1 | 3.5 | -1.7 | -1.1 | 0.6 |
| Warren Foegele | 20-21 | CAR | 53 | 750.2 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Warren Foegele | 21-22 | EDM | 82 | 1034.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Warren Foegele | 22-23 | EDM | 67 | 851 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1 | 6.8 |
| Warren Foegele | 23-24 | EDM | 44 | 610.8 | 5.1 | -0.9 | 0.2 | 4.4 |
Though it is important to equate any one stat to a true catch all in evaluating players, these goals above replacement (GAR) stats from Evolving Hockey can help us quantify his performance over the seasons. At first we should notice that this is not Foegele’s best season by total GAR, but it is by far his best offensive performance by this metric.
While a slight drop in his penalty differential does factor in, the major change from last season is the return to his usual defensive contributions. This might point to the fact that Foegele’s defensive effectiveness was in large part due to the fantastic defensive play of Ryan McLeod.
If the idea is to find a winger who can control play, especially with strong defence, to buoy a Draisaitl and Kane line, then McLeod might be a better fit than Foegele. Granted, McLeod’s importance as a checking centre is not easy to pass up, but his disposition as a playmaker might be a better fit for a Draisaitl and Kane line than Foegele’s shooting mentality. This might add to the reasoning behind swapping Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins recently, as his disposition might balance shot happy power wingers like Kane and Foegele.
Foegele’s future with the Oilers
The reality is that even at his career high production pace, fans across Oil Country will be able to dream of offensive upgrades over Foegele. The Oilers are fairly stable in five of their top-six forward spots, and have a good number of quality checking forwards and bottom-six forwards to work with. Perhaps Foegele is in a group that might have enough to hold down the role, as various levels of hope exists that McLeod or even Dylan Holloway might be worthy of a shot as well.
For now, Foegele is holding up well in this role and is deserving of recognition. Though the trade that brought him to the Oilers was a bit contentious as far as fan reaction, it is quite possible that Foegele sees a raise in his next NHL deal thanks to his performance. Perhaps, like Zach Hyman, Foegele will be able to keep improving through his late 20s, pricing himself out of the Oilers budget. It will be an interesting negotiation this offseason when Foegele’s current deal expires, and both player and team might be willing to make compromises to keep the fairly ideal situation intact. For now there is nothing to do but enjoy his contributions to an Oiler team that is coming into its own and justifying the championship expectations of the preseason.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
