With the trade deadline about a month away, speculation season is kicking into full swing. For the Edmonton Oilers, a true perennial contender who have overcome a dreadful start to the season, there is no certainty as to what position and style of player is best to target. With limited resources, both from a salary cap and asset perspective, the Oilers must be decisive in any attempt to upgrade their team further.
Among the players mentioned in these speculations is Jake Guentzel. A scoring winger with pending UFA status, and on a team in the thick of a crowded wildcard race, let’s examine what acquiring Guentzel would mean for the Oilers.
Scouting report
| Player | Season | GP | TOI | G | A | Pts | Sh% | Off | xOff | Def | xDef | Pens | SPAR | xSPAR |
| Jake Guentzel | 16-17 | 40 | 635.4 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 19.8 | 9.8 | 11.5 | -3.5 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 |
| Jake Guentzel | 17-18 | 82 | 1351.9 | 22 | 26 | 48 | 12.9 | -0.8 | 7.4 | -6.7 | -5.3 | -0.3 | -2.9 | 0.7 |
| Jake Guentzel | 18-19 | 82 | 1586.8 | 40 | 36 | 76 | 17.6 | 14.6 | 27.1 | -1.1 | -3.4 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 9.1 |
| Jake Guentzel | 19-20 | 39 | 804.5 | 20 | 23 | 43 | 15.7 | 6.8 | 13.1 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 5.9 |
| Jake Guentzel | 20-21 | 56 | 1135 | 23 | 34 | 57 | 16.3 | 7.5 | 8.5 | -2.2 | -3.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Jake Guentzel | 21-22 | 76 | 1527.4 | 40 | 44 | 84 | 15.2 | 11.9 | 14.9 | -4.3 | -5.3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| Jake Guentzel | 22-23 | 78 | 1569 | 36 | 37 | 73 | 14.8 | 9.8 | 10.8 | -4.4 | -5.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Jake Guentzel | 23-24 | 47 | 984.8 | 22 | 28 | 50 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -4.4 | -4.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Jake Guentzel | Total | 500 | 9594.7 | 219 | 245 | 464 | 15.3 | 64.6 | 102.1 | -25.9 | -28.2 | 12.6 | 17.2 | 29.6 |
In the eighth season of his NHL career, all with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Guentzel is up to an impressive 464 points through his first 500 games. A scoring winger who spent half a season in the AHL after three seasons in college, Guentzel was able to hit the ground running, riding shotgun with all time great players en route to back to back Stanley Cup wins. An instant contributor, Guentzel was a big part of the Penguins success, evidenced by his point per game scoring pace through 58 career playoff games, earning himself a reputation as a clutch scorer.
Twice a 40-goal scorer, and on pace for roughly that again this season, the 29-year-old Guentzel is an equally capable playmaker, and is still delivering top line results. While Guentzel is not necessarily big or powerful, he has a high level of quality and is able to apply these skills in a very functional manner.
Guentzel does not have the reputation for top end speed, but is able to threaten off the rush as a puck carrier. The shot is an obvious plus, though Guentzel’s prowess here comes from a quick and deceptive release, delivering bold shot locations with accuracy to consistently beat goalies from the mid slot. Guentzel is a viable one time option as well, and is able to find quiet ice during in-zone attacking. This shooting threat opens up passing lanes for Guentzel, who can find seams in the opponent’s defensive structure to set up teammates for dangerous chances. Through 500 games Guentzel has 152 career primary assists over 93 secondary assists.
Make no mistake, despite his size and proficiency from distance Guentzel is not afraid to get to the net front. He is able to tip pucks, as well as finding loose picks and rebounds. To round out his offensive skill set, Guentzel is able to attack the triangles to stick handle through and around them. All together there is little to dislike about Guentzel’s offensive game.
With a smart stick and good puck control Guentzel is not a complete liability defensively and can still be trusted in situations defending late game leads. With that being said Guentzel often grades out poorly in defensive categories and should not be expected to help his team in such a manner.
Are the Penguins willing to part with Guentzel?
Though the Penguins do find themselves in a precarious spot in the standings, there is no guarantee that the team is looking to move on from current assets, including Guentzel. Ownership seems to have given President Kyle Dubas a mandate to maximise the final years of their legendary core, and under such a circumstance it would be curious to see the team move off of Guentzel.
Of course, at some point the Pens may elect to rebuild, and quite frankly the core might not have enough runway left to retool. Still, with his name connected to several teams at this point there might be a fire behind all the smoke. Perhaps the Pens feel that they cannot afford to re-sign Guentzel, or perhaps the team feels a stylistic change is needed. Moving Guentzel would almost certainly mark an inflection point, where the Penguins switch their focus to the future.
In terms of return it is difficult to imagine what the Pens would be seeking from a Guentzel deal. A first-round pick is valuable in a vacuum, but especially late in the round this likely does little for any window their veteran core might have left. As far as futures go, a prospect near NHL ready might be more valued by the Pens, though the Oilers top trade asset Philip Broberg might not be a good fit, seeing as P.O. Joseph, a left shot defenceman with some similar attributes, is already on the outside looking into the Pens regular full strength lineup.
Where Guentzel would fit in the Oilers’ lineup
Were Guentzel to find himself on the Oilers he would almost certainly be deployed as a top-six forward, likely alongside Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane, at least to start. While the idea of Guentzel on this line is tantalising from an offensive standpoint, given the already questionable defensive abilities of lines with Draisaitl and Kane. For this reason, acquiring Guentzel might mean breaking up one of the NHL’s best lines in the last five seasons, the trio of Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
On the power play Guentzel has been able to rotate into different positions, often closer to the net front. Hypothetically he would be an asset in a similar positioning on the Oilers top unit, though both Kane and especially Hyman are already producing in this role. On this basis adding a true top line scorer might be an awkward fit, as improving the Oilers power play is a high bar to clear, and icetime is limited.
The added wrinkle is Guentzel’s pending UFA status and the contract he is likely to command this summer, often projected to be more than a $9M cap hit. While the Oilers might be able to squeeze Guentzel into this season’s cap, re-signing him would drastically alter the Oilers long term cap plans. With extensions and raises due to McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard, the Oilers would have to be cautious and intentional in moving out salary to entertain keeping Guentzel beyond this season.
Is Guentzel what the Oilers are looking for?
While Guentzel is a bonafide scoring talent with a reputation for playoff scoring, the fit with the Oilers is complicated by several factors. There is little doubt that Guentzel would be an addition to the Oilers historic offence, he might be a detriment to the team’s quest to improve their defensive play. Guentzel would almost assuredly be a rental, perhaps altering the Oilers appetite in acquisition cost. Combined with the uncertainty of the Penguins vector as a franchise, Guentzel to the Oilers seems less likely the more the idea is explored.
Still, the upsides of a Guentzel acquisition are fairly attractive and tangible. It would be a bold and ambitious move, and the premise will certainly capture many imaginations across Oil Country.
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