This is the headline every single playoff teams fans are seeing right now. I’ll attempt to answer it from a statistical standpoint and by trying to glean information from what has worked in the past.
Lets first take a look at this from a Moneyball type of standpoint. Since the lockout in 2004–2005, the Stanley Cup winning team has had to score, on average, 75.16 goals in the postseason to win, which translates to 3.23 goals per playoff game. On the flip side, they held the opposing team to an average of 55.05 goals per game, leading to a 2.35 goals against per playoff game average. this is a goal differential of 0.88. As a point of interest, in that time, the 2022 Colorado Avalanche were the most dominant, scoring 4.25 goals per game and touting a 1.5 goal differential whereas the St. Louis Blues had a goal differential of only 0.19 throughout the playoffs. No matter, that doesn’t get engraved onto the Stanley Cup.
The Edmonton Oilers currently sit at 3.51 G/GP and 2.88 GA/GP with a 0.63 differential. The G/GP is above where it should be but the GA/GP is a little high and therefore the differential a little low. Naturally, this indicates a need for better defence/goaltending. So far as holes in the lineup go, that would seem like the obvious answer. The Oilers forward roster is such that, if you completely randomized the lines 100 times, you would end up with two impressive lines 90 times. The defencemen are, statistically, not an obvious problem either. Not one of Edmonton’s current defenders carries a negative plus/minus.
The glaring problem is goaltending. Stuart Skinner turned his year around, but is still having only an average year. I’m not suggesting trading Skinner, he just needs somone to lean on. Calvin Pickard, though playing solidly, is a big question mark. He had good seasons with Colorado but that was many years ago and since then, though over a small sample size, his numbers have not been encouraging. Not the type of numbers you would bet your postseason on. Let’s put a pin in this tabled discussion and circle back to it though.
These are the trades that the past 10 Stanley Cup winners made within one month of the trade deadline, only the players who played in the playoffs that year or may have been expected to, are listed.
Past Stanley Cup winners trade deals
In 2023, the Vegas Golden Knights traded for Teddy Blueger, Jonathan Quick, and Ivan Barbashev; Quick didn’t play in the playoffs. Blueger played only six playoff games and had two points. The stroke of genius here was Barbashev. Vegas gave up a highly chosen prospect but received 18 points in 22 playoff games for him and he was a huge part of the Stanley Cup winning team.
The Colorado Avalanche traded for Josh Manson, Nico Sturm, Arrturi Lehkonen, and Andrew Cogliano in 2022. Manson adding eight points in 20 playoff games, Lehkonenen with 14 points in 20 playoff games, and Cogliano with six points in 16 playoff games. Three of the four still play with the team.
A relatively quiet trade deadline for the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021, picking up David Savard who scored five points in 20 games. Defensive depth was the name of the game here.
In 2020, the Lightning picked up Blake Coleman, and Barclay Goodrow. Coleman scored 13 points in 25 playoff games, and Goodrow who had six points in 25 games. Both players were depth and grit pickups. Tampa Bay’s perhaps not so secret weapon for their cup winning years and before was an outstanding third line. They were always tough, played with heart, and could put the puck in the net, they epitomized playoff hockey. There were no easy parts in that lineup.
The St. Louis Blues only trade at the 2019 deadline was for Michael Del Zotto, who played no playoff games, but was clearly meant as a depth option.
The 2018 Washington Capitals picked up Michal Kempny, and Jakub Jerabek. Jerabek had one point in two playoff games, and Kempny had five points in 24 games.
The Pittsburgh Penguin traded for Ron Hainsey, Frank Corrado, and Mark Streit in 2017. Hainsey had eight points in 25 playoff games, while Corrado and Streit both had two points in three games.
Pittsburgh traded for Justin Schultz who scored three points in 15 playoff games in 2016; Oilers fans will remember this trade with pain as Schultz went on to score 51 points the next season.
In 2015, Chicago picked up Andrew Desjardins who scored four points in 21 games, Antoine Vermette scored seven points in 20 games, and Kimmo Timmonen who scored no points in 18 games.
The 2014 Los Angeles only significant trade deadline trade was for Marian Gaborik who scored 22 points in 26 playoff games.
Of these teams, Colorado, Vegas, 2020 Tampa Bay, and Los Angeles’ trade dealines pop out as the most impressive as they picked up players who significanlty affected their playoff run, and all players continued with the team afterwards. That doesn’t change the fact that all the teams on this list won the Stanley Cup and what I would consider trades for depth were far more common than trying for a whale. Apparently, successful GM’s don’t ruin team chemistry for an All-Star.
So far as position goes, forwards were traded for 10 times and defencemen nine times.
Possible pickups for the Oilers
Here is a list of some of the players with reasonable contracts that Edmonton could trade for:
- Jake Guentzel: One of the names that Edmonton has been heavily connected to recently. However, Guentzel carries a $6M contract and will be out with an upper body injury for another month. Edmonton will have a hard time swinging that deal and Pittsburgh will make them pay heavily for it. Pittsburgh still has playoff hopes and may not even want to trade Guentzel yet.
- Blake Coleman: So far as the player goes, I think it’s a perfect fit. A third line of Coleman, Ryan McLeod, and Corey Perry would be deadly. The price of $4.9M is difficult to make this work but Coleman is the playoff hockey archetype.
- Jacob Markstrom: We keep returning to the price, which, at $6M is tough to handle but Markstrom is having a great season and would be huge for the Oilers. With Markstrom you have two legit goaltending options.
- Chris Tanev: He fits like a glove on any team he plays for because he plays entirely team first. He is a shot blocking machine and a highly responsible stay at home defenceman. A more reasonable $4.5M contract is still difficult to make work though.
- Frank Vatrano: He is having a great year, is on a team deep in the depths of a rebuild, and only costs $3.65M. He still has one more year after this one on his contract but he’d be a great fit.
- Alexander Barabanov: Barabanov is not having a great year thus far but has had solid years in the past and is only on a $2.5M contract for one more year.
- Travis Hamonic: This would be a great deal as Hamonic is only making $1.1M, which I would consider to be a bargain. He is another defence first guy who would do anything for his team.
Some other possibilities for trade are Adam Henrique, Jason Zucker, Anthony Duclair, Mike Hoffman, Kevin Labanc, Noah Hanifin, Joel Edmundson, Juuse Saros, Kaapo Kahkonen, Alex Nedeljkovic, Charlie Lindgren, and Marc-Andre Fleury.
Personally, I prefer offensive depth and dominance to defence. From a statistical point of view, it is very difficult to properly quantify an individuals defensive value, and I believe that forwards play a bigger role in defence than is currently appreciated. On the other hand, offensive ability is relatively well reflected by points, shooting percentage, and corsi.
The 1984–85 Edmonton Oilers, often considered the best team to ever play the game, had a GA/GP of 3.73, which would be second worst in the NHL today. It didn’t really matter how many goals got scored on them though because they scored 5.01 goals a game on average, which would be first by a mile in todays NHL. I know that more goals were scored in the 80s but my point is that in the end, all that really matters is that you score more than your opponent. What your hockey coach told you when you were 10 is still true: your opponent can’t score from their own end.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
