Quickly approaching 900 games and now 600 points in the NHL, 32-year-old Evander Kane is on the second year of a four-year deal. Though Kane might not still be at his peak, his time with the Edmonton Oilers has seen the most consistent team success, and by far the least amount of off ice controversy, in his career. In his third season with the Oilers, Kane has enjoyed a level of stability that has often eluded him. That being said, there is some concern across Oil Country that Kane’s play and contract might see his value deteriorate from a cap efficiency standpoint.
This combination is a dangerous one concerning Kane’s icetime, as the forward falls down the lineup. Earlier this week, Kane’s comments surrounding his icetime were able to be twisted into a number of narratives. If anything, these comments are a sign of a proud player who feels he can contribute more, and not even the first bit of candour from Kane this season. From Kane’s perspective, his icetime is at its lowest point since his rookie season with the Atlanta Thrashers. On top of this, Kane’s decision to sign with the Oilers was an opportunity to win, and to an extent to do so on either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl’s wing.
While the first two seasons with the Oilers have led to a fairly harmonious tenure, let’s look at how Kane is playing and how his fit with the team might unfold in the future.
Kane’s style of play
Since joining the NHL, Kane has been a force as a power forward. Often his rough and tumble style of play can lead to injuries, as Kane has missed a handful of games each season. This leads to some depressed offensive totals, as Kane has scored at a 30-goal pace more often than he has scored 30 goals, a pace he is maintaining this season. It should be noted that much of his prime was spent on lacklustre teams and during an era with a more depressed scoring rate league wide than now. As shooting percentages across the league have risen, so has Kane’s.
More impressive is that Kane has always done most of his scoring at even strength. This is a worthwhile investment in itself and something that Kane has continued to contribute this season, with 11 of his 14 goals on the season at even strength.
Of course, Kane brings a physical flair and an aggressive temperament that have their functions in a balanced lineup. While his poor penalty differential is not ideal, it is a flaw that is mitigated by the relative lawlessness of the postseason. At his best, there are nights where Kane can use his physicality and talent to overwhelm opponents, something we saw during the Oilers playoff run in 2021–22 as Kane unleashed some of his best hockey onto the opposition.
Possession through the years
| Player | Season | Team | GP | TOI | G | A | Pts | Sh% | Off | xOff | Def | xDef | Pens |
| Evander Kane | 09-10 | Thrashers | 66 | 923.5 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.9 | -4.1 | -3.1 | 1.6 |
| Evander Kane | 10-11 | Thrashers | 73 | 1304 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.9 | -0.7 | -1.5 | 4 |
| Evander Kane | 11-12 | Jets | 74 | 1296.3 | 30 | 27 | 57 | 10.5 | 17.6 | 9.2 | -0.5 | -1.9 | 2.5 |
| Evander Kane | 12-13 | Jets | 48 | 981.7 | 17 | 16 | 33 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 4 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| Evander Kane | 13-14 | Jets | 63 | 1278.2 | 19 | 22 | 41 | 7.6 | 6.9 | -0.4 | -4.2 | -4 | -0.4 |
| Evander Kane | 14-15 | Jets | 37 | 714.6 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 7.9 | 4.2 | -0.5 | -4 | -2.5 | -1.2 |
| Evander Kane | 15-16 | Sabres | 65 | 1367.4 | 20 | 15 | 35 | 7.4 | -5.1 | 2.3 | -1 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Evander Kane | 16-17 | Sabres | 70 | 1344.1 | 28 | 15 | 43 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 13 | -6.2 | -5.3 | -1.9 |
| Evander Kane | 17-18 | Sabres / Sharks | 78 | 1527 | 29 | 25 | 54 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | -2 |
| Evander Kane | 18-19 | Sharks | 75 | 1380.8 | 30 | 26 | 56 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 10.8 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -1.2 |
| Evander Kane | 19-20 | Sharks | 64 | 1250.5 | 26 | 21 | 47 | 12 | 7.3 | 5 | -1.2 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Evander Kane | 20-21 | Sharks | 56 | 1131 | 22 | 27 | 49 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| Evander Kane | 21-22 | Oilers | 43 | 836.4 | 22 | 17 | 39 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 6.1 | -3.2 | -3.6 | -1.9 |
| Evander Kane | 22-23 | Oilers | 41 | 766.8 | 16 | 12 | 28 | 11 | -1.1 | 1 | -4.2 | -3.3 | -1 |
| Evander Kane | 23-24 | Oilers | 39 | 682.8 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 11.7 | -1.2 | -0.6 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -1.1 |
Despite these fairly obvious positives, there are definite shortcomings in Kane’s game. For one, Kane has started to diminish as a dominant possession player in the NHL, especially defensively, and quite frankly expecting him to be so now, in the back half of his career, is a bit misguided. We can see from his deployment that Kane has always been used in an scoring role, and is not exactly well suited for much else. While his effect on generating chances decreasing is cause for concern, this is somewhat mitigated in the moment as Kane has still continued to score.
| Rank | Line | Minutes | xGoals % | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes |
| 1 | Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins | 261.6 | 74.60% | 4.84 | 1.65 |
| 2 | Hyman-Draisaitl-McDavid | 75.5 | 66.20% | 4.06 | 2.07 |
| 3 | Hamblin-Ryan-Gagner | 42.2 | 60.60% | 2.84 | 1.85 |
| 4 | Kane-Nugent-Hopkins-Hyman | 58.6 | 59.20% | 4.61 | 3.17 |
| 5 | Foegele-Ryan-McLeod | 51.3 | 57.90% | 2.57 | 1.87 |
| 6 | Foegele-Draisaitl-McLeod | 87.5 | 57% | 4.46 | 3.36 |
| 7 | Kane-Draisaitl-McDavid | 42 | 52.30% | 3.29 | 3 |
| 8 | Kane-Draisaitl-Brown | 92.5 | 45.70% | 2.4 | 2.86 |
| 9 | Kane-Ryan-Janmark | 48 | 40.60% | 1.63 | 2.38 |
As we can see from these line stats, Kane finds himself heavily featured in the Oilers weaker lines by expected goals. It should be noted that the Oilers are a dominant team, and most of these lines are controlling expected goals at well over 55%. Zach Hyman appears to be the most common factor near the top of this list, especially when paired with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and so it’s not too surprising that Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and Kane performed well in their time together. Although the Hyman/McDavid/Nugent-Hopkins line might be too good to break apart, it is noteworthy that Kane can still be on the right side of expected goals share when properly supported.
The elephant in the room here is how poorly lines involving both Kane and Draisaitl have done this season. With Hyman/McDavid/Nugent-Hopkins dominating, leading the league in Moneypuck’s expected goals share for all lines and pairings league wide, Kane performing so poorly with Draisaitl is a one way ticket out of the Oilers top six. Perhaps at some point the duo will get another look together, though they will need a dominant possession linemate to have a chance at controlling play.
Kane’s future with the Oilers
More stat based player valuation models do not look favourably upon Kane’s contributions, and this is unlikely to change over the course of his current deal. Kane has a no-movement clause until March 2025, at which point it becomes a modified no-trade clause with a 16-team no-trade list. As such, it will be difficult to move on from Kane’s contract unless he desires to leave the team, but the Oilers will have a shot at moving him in the last year of his deal.
With a limited number of effective seasons remaining, and clearly desiring a significant role on a strong team, there are only so many teams that would represent realistic options for Kane to be dealt to, should the Oilers try to move him when the time comes. As such, the return on a potential Kane trade is unlikely to be very significant, with cap space being the primary positive for the Oilers in such a scenario. Of course, given his extensive injury history and rough style of play, it is possible that Kane finishes his deal on LTIR should the situation deteriorate.
For now, the most prudent course of action is likely for the Oilers to keep Kane and try to maximise his effectiveness. While he cannot contribute in all facets of the game, Kane still brings a lot of rare elements to the lineup that are valued from a traditional sense. Finishing the season on roughly a 30-goal pace, with most of those coming at even strength, represents strong enough production to justify retaining Kane’s services. His doing so through the rest of this season is crucial, but as he ages it might not be realistic to expect that to continue through his current deal.
At the point where his production starts to drop off, his contract might become untenable for an Oilers team already with an already puzzling cap situation. As such, we should expect this narrative surrounding the scrutiny of Kane’s play to continue through the end of his contract. The most important thing for the Oilers is that Kane is at least able to continue scoring through this season and next.
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire
