While the Edmonton Oilers easily handled the first round of the 2024 playoffs, they’re struggling more than expected in the second round. One big aspect of this comes from within the crease as Stuart Skinner is having a rough go at the playoffs.
Looking at his saving stats based on different shot danger levels, it’s clear that he’s subpar in a key aspect of any goaltender’s game: making the easy saves. Let’s take a closer look at his stats as per Natural Stat Trick.
Skinner’s 5v5 playoff stats
Last year, Skinner made 12 appearances, facing nearly 250 shots at 5v5. So far this year, he’s faced 168 shots at 5v5 in his eight appearances. Here’s how his save percentages break down, first in aggregate, then splitting up high-danger, medium-danger, and low-danger save percentages.
| Playoffs | GP | SA | SV% | HDSV% | MDSV% | LDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12 | 246 | 0.898 | 0.785 | 0.891 | 0.979 |
| 2024 | 8 | 168 | 0.887 | 0.875 | 0.778 | 0.911 |
So right off the bat, it’s Skinner’s faring worse this year than he did last year at 5v5. His save percentage is over a full percentage lower this time around, which isn’t going to bode well across the balance of the playoffs.
However, when looking at the different shot dangers, it becomes clear where the netminder is struggling. His high-danger save percentage has actually improved by a significant margin. It’s his medium- and low-danger save percentages that have actually cratered to unbelievably poor results.
The improvements seen in high-danger saves—which currently equates to a net increase of nine percent—are absolutely massive, and in the playoffs, those big-time saves can turn the momentum right into the team’s favour. However, the issue is Skinner’s improvement against high-danger shots is completely negated and then some when looking at his medium- and low-danger performance. Both categories have significant drops in this season compared to last year.
Skinner’s save percentages of 0.778 MDSV% and 0.911% loosely translate to one out of every four medium-danger shots turning into a goal and one out of every ten low-danger shots doing the same. That’s completely unacceptable for any goaltender, let alone the one backstopping the Cup contenders in the Oilers.
Getting these goaltending outputs at 5v5 is simply going to sink the team faster than they can score. This was already the case in Games 1 and 3 where the Oilers came out on the losing end of the one-goal games. Getting one extra save could have been a huge difference-maker and Skinner instead let in one extra goal that definitely was the difference.
Skinner’s all situations playoff stats
| Playoffs | GP | SA | SV% | HDSV% | MDSV% | LDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12 | 325 | 0.883 | 0.750 | 0.863 | 0.977 |
| 2024 | 8 | 203 | 0.877 | 0.860 | 0.771 | 0.904 |
Turning to all situations, Skinner’s results are just as bad. Again, a marked improvement in high-danger saves is completely offset by crated medium- and low-danger results. Most of the extra shots faced at all situations would likely be on the penalty kill, meaning it’d be reasonable to expect worse numbers at all situations here compared to 5v5.
However, Skinner’s low-danger save percentage last year was near mint and was hardly impacted between 5v5 versus all situations, going from 0.979 to 0.977. As seen this season, the impact of one low-danger goal against on the penalty kill significantly reduces his overall LDSV% at the smaller sample size.
Skinner leaves a lot left to be desired
Right now, Skinner’s goaltending stats based on shot danger show that something is amiss in his play. Whether he’s not tracking the puck properly or something else, his results have been subpar and it’s genuinely hurting the Oilers.
Skinner has a dangerous mix of a good HDSV% with downright awful MDSV% and LDSV%. When a goalie is performing as poorly as Skinner is with these weak shots, it has already cost the team games and will cost them more if something doesn’t change soon.
Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire
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