The International scene has two big tournaments happening right now. Soon, the World Championships will be in Prague (with former Oiler Coach Jay Woodcroft being an assistant for Canada). What is encouraging about this is that it looks like a pre-pandemic tournament with lots of NHL players coming. However, today is about another IIHF tournament: the Under 18s.
For a quick review. All the junior tournaments are flawed. International hockey is a very busy schedule with a lot of events. However, most North American fans have a very NHL based view on them. This means they will watch a best-on-best World Cup or Olympics and the U20 at Christmas. They are missing out!
A brief look at more recognizable tournaments
The U20 is a heavily marketed cash cow for TSN. Some associate this as a “real world championships” and the second best way (behind a best-on-best which we haven’t had in a long time) to determine who is the best. I’d like to point out that no other sport looks at Junior results to determine who the best is. However, the tournament is heavily marketed by TSN, heavily watched, and Canada usually does very well at it. The reality is that the tournament is consistently missing the best players. Connor McDavid only played it once for instance. Connor Bedard too!
Then we have the Hlinkas which recently got renamed to the Hlinka/Gretzky cup and it now alternates between Czech and Slovakia co-hosts, and Canada. This tournament is also U18 and is amazing but it has one flaw! It is in summer and Canada sends their absolute best possible roster annually. The results really show as they win Gold more than anyone here (24 out of 33 golds). However, the USA sends their B team and not their juggernaut USNDTP team.
Then we have the U18s which happen annually in April, right during the CHL playoffs. So Canada has to send a “B” or “C” team depending on who is eliminated from the CHL playoffs. However, the USA sends their NDTP team which is their A team. As a result, they usually win it (11 out of 24 golds) and score an insane amount of goals along the way. Sweden has had recent success at this tourney. Finns are second overall in the medal table.
The U18s are wildy unpredictable as we are talking about 16- and 17-year-old boys. One noticeable absence is Germany who got relegated (this has happened to Slovakia recently as well). At this years tourney the favorite is the US. The tournament is in Finland and they have been excellent. The Swedes lost to Canada and the Czechs. The Czechs were looking like a lock to finish second in the pool but lost to Kazakhistan a day after beating Sweden. Then the Swedes couldn’t beat the Swiss the next day to finish second. Last year, the Swedes beat Canada 8–0 on Day 1 only for Canada to win bronze a week later. It is very unpredictable.
Overview of U18 quarterfinals
This years quarterfinals are looking to be two very good games and two potential blowouts. But, again, this is U18 and a lot can happen in 60 minutes.
Canada will play the last game against Latvia. Latvians have been plucky and have done well. They beat Slovakia but lost to Norway. Canada ran the table without much difficulty. They should be a heavy favorite here. They have twthree forwards absolutely lighting it up in Gavin Mckenna and Spencer Martone. Both are over 3 ppg so far. It feels likely that Canada win this by about five goals.
USA will play Switzerland. So far, the USA is scoring touchdowns. They beat Slovakia 9–0, Norway 8–2, Latvia 7–1, and Finland 9–4. That gives them a 4four game balance of 6 GA and 33 GF for a + 27 after four games. This is Harlem Globetrotter territory. Switzerland have been up and down. Their first period against Canada was exceptional but they eventually folded. They took the Swedes to OT and they gave the Czechs fits for about 50 minutes. They are hoping all the stars align and for a massive upset. I think the US will win by about five goals.
The Czechs will play Slovakia. Czechs have scored nine goals in four games. None of their stars are shining. Amazingly, they finished second in the group despite a historic loss to Kazakhistan. This is a good squad that won silver at the Hlinka (19 returning players) this summer. The biggest absence is the teams only first rounder in Adam Jiricek. However, some very good players have been ordinary. This includes Adam Benak, Tomas Galvas, and Jakub Fibigr. All are likely top 100 picks in June. Slovakia have been all over the map. They got destroyed by the US. Lost to Latvia. Almost got relegated and bounced back with an absolute annihilation of Norway to get to the playoffs (11–1).
Slovakia is playing a lot of underagers. Their draft this year is looking to be weaker than previous years. Next year is their year. So they may be happy to have avoided relegation and to make the quarters. This is a “derby.” Both countries are happy to have a “playable” opponent. I will take the Czechs 4–3 in a shootout.
Sweden plays Finland in a derby. Swedes have also been up and down and insistent. They are very good at this tournament traditionally (two golds and a silver in the last four tournaments), and usually one of the only nations that can stop the US or Canada in playoff elimination games. Finland has been consistent and good all tournament. They did get annihilated by the US but everyone got annihilated by the US. This has game of the day written all over it. Normally I’d take Sweden. However, I think the Finns can pull the “upset” here.
All the games take place on Thursday. First game is roughly five hours after the Edmonton Oilers eliminate, er, I mean play the L.A. Kings!
Photo from @HockeyCanada on Twitter
