Often, narratives surrounding Canadian NHL teams are focused on disadvantages, the pressure, the weather, the taxes, something in the water keeping the country’s collective Stanley Cup drought intact. If these storylines have quelled of late it is surely due to the fact that four of the seven Canadian teams are looking like strong contenders headed into the halfway mark of the season.
This does not mean that fans across the country are content, as crisis is never far behind. There are certainly fans facing existential questions as the new year begins. Without further ado, let’s get into our monthly Canadian Power Ranking.
Ottawa Senators
With the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins ageing and losing talent, there was thought that opportunity would exist for a trio of young teams on the rise in the Atlantic Division, the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators. While neither of these three have been able to make much headway, things have gone most poorly in Ottawa, as the Senators find themselves backsliding into the Eastern Conference’s basement.
This explains the reset that we are currently seeing in the nation’s capital, rehiring Jacques Martin at age 71, clearly hoping to use the season to rebuild some sense of defensive fortitude. The Senators have rotated through goalies, and now with Jonas Gustavsson and Cam Talbot both thriving behind stronger defensive teams, the issue has become evident.
While there is talent on the blueline, including the recently acquired Jakob Chychrun, the emerging Jake Sanderson, the established Thomas Chabot, or the solid Artem Zub, the Sens have not been able to take steps forward here. There is star power up front as well. In truth, the roster is much greater on paper than it has shown, despite injuries and other unfortunate circumstances.
While a high pick and a talented prospect could certainly help, the biggest change that needs to be enacted is the team’s structure, discipline, and identity. Although nebulous, seeing some progress in this regard is vital to building towards next season. At that point, the Senators might well have another coach, but unless the core can find answers within the room that won’t matter much.
Now we wait for new President and GM Steve Staios to make his mark on the team. Chances are, any dramatic changes will be slow played, after all, they tried to put off firing former coach D.J. Smith as long as possible, preferring stability, a sign to the roster that the change must come from within the room.
If there is a specific area of the roster that needs upgrading, the Senators might be lacking in centre depth. Tim Stutzle is a great player, but cannot do it alone. Josh Norris is working his way back to speed after a long injury layoff, which would certainly help. The same might be said for Shane Pinto, to return from a 41-game suspension later this month, who seems capable of continue to push up the lineup, but hasn’t had the chance. In other words, there might be some hope for improvement within the roster already.
Calgary Flames
The elephant in the room is how poorly Jonathan Huberdeau’s time with the Calgary Flames has gone, and given the contract and the player’s age any hope of a turnaround is fading quickly. Huberdeau’s contract highlights that the Flames are an expensive and middling team, the NHL’s equivalent of a rock and a hard place, clouding the ability to sign key UFAs in Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, and Chris Tanev.
With only a month before trade deadline talks come out in full force, it will be curious to see how the Flames choose to navigate the path to their future. The team does have some prospect help that could make an impact in a year or two, a youth movement that is already showing some strong signs, led by Connor Zary who is making a name for himself as an NHLer.
In the end, the Flames will have to find the right balance of keeping a core together while retooling, deferring wins from this season into future value. The path is narrow, and deciding correctly on which players are kept and which are not will need to be on the money.
Speaking of money, whether or not their free agents are willing re-sign, and for how much, is a crucial piece of the puzzle. Finding a way to get younger or add draft picks should be the goal, but the Flames don’t have enough top prospects en route to be able to completely dismantle their roster and bounce back while their most expensive players are still contributors.
It might be most prudent to retool instead of rebuilding, for example keeping Hanifin of the key UFAs, trying to maintain a strong blueline, hoping that a handful of younger forwards can add a scoring jolt to the team. Still, the Flames have a proud group that will be pushing for a playoff spot down the stretch of the season.
Montreal Canadiens
As the only true rebuilding team in Canada, the Montreal Canadiens are graded on a different scale, measuring their successes in developmental steps forward as opposed to standings points. In fact, their near even number of wins and losses can be seen as impressive in its own right.
The Canadiens, and coach Martin St. Louis, have seen some promising developments from players on their roster. Of course, former first-overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky showing some promising signs since being promoted to the top line with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki is top of mind, but other talents continue to emerge as well. Jayden Struble has emerged from a system with a lot of defence prospects, looking to be a long term fixture on a blueline with a promising future.
While some in the fan base might bemoan a lack of top tier talent, Lane Hutson looked every bit the part of an elite offensive defenceman in team USA’s U20 World Junior gold medal victory. Others, like Joshua Roy, are experiencing some notable success outside the NHL. In all, the next few seasons will see an influx of talent for the Canadiens. Still, there is likely a majority of the Habs fan base that is waiting for the team to start selling off assets ahead of the trade deadline, including Sean Monahan who has overcome a slew of injuries that derailed his career as the top line centre for the Flames.
The Canadiens have taken a number of swings on first-round pedigree under the Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes regime, and for now the gambles seem to be paying off. Whether it’s adding draft pick sweeteners for taking on contracts like Monahan’s and flipping that for even more futures, or taking chances on potential core pieces like Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook.
As other rebuilding teams, like the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators fail to gain traction in their playoff quests, the Canadiens holding up well despite their longer term focus. This is an achievement in its own right, but one met with ambivalence among the fan base. The Canadiens will still need to nail what should be a high pick in the first round of this year’s draft to raise the team’s ceiling once their rebuild starts turning the corner. In all, their system might be a blue chip, offensive, high end forward prospect away from being stable enough to satiate their most invested fans.
Toronto Maple Leafs
On one hand, the Toronto Leafs do continue to be on the same trend as always, signing William Nylander to an expensive extension. Nylander is an all world player, and has continued improving over the course of his career. The Leafs will have a majority of their cap tied up in their core players, which will ensure that the team has to continue to try to fill out the rest of their roster with enough talent to continue improving, without much space to do so. Still, the team is clearly strong enough to cruise through the regular season with a strong record.
In other ways this season’s iteration of the team is quite different than it has been in years past. For one, the Leafs are not quite as strong in controlling play as we have been accustomed to. Despite this there are some positives that are different than usual as well, as the teams depth surrounding the core does seem to have more playoff style traits than in the past. Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi have fit in nicely, and along with Calle Jarnkrok give the Leafs a boost to their forward group beyond the infamous “Core 4”. Simon Benoit is providing some size and physicality that the blueline has been missing. Joseph Woll, though currently injured, seems to be the most stable option in net since at least Frederik Andersen.
Still, regardless of the regular season accolades and triumphs, the Leafs have underwhelmed in the playoffs. Any assessment of the team’s progress will have to be measured here, and with a likely first round matchup against either the Florida Panthers or Boston Bruins, the Leafs will not have an easy road to improving their playoff record.
Edmonton Oilers
In what is becoming something of an annual tradition, the Edmonton Oilers are rounding into elite form, born anew with the calendar year. Now 17 and 6 under new Coach Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers are not only becoming the legitimate contender that was expected in the offseason, but also showing signs that they are continuing their upward trend from a long term perspective.
The start of the season was disastrous, reminding us that anything can happen, to never feel too secure in any analysis, but there is reason to believe that the Oilers have gotten back on track under Knoblauch. Though he takes his share of criticism, and there have been several missteps along the way, GM Ken Holland has seen the team continue to build championship qualities.
Year to year, the Oilers have gone from a group barely held up by the remarkable scoring primes of a pair of MVPs, slowly adding elements to their standard. The forward scoring depth has improved, the blueline reshaped into one oozing a blend of skill and mobility, as well as the trait defined by the reigning champion Vegas Golden Knights, size.
Under former Coach Jay Woodcroft the Oilers emerged as a dominant possession team. This has continued to both sustain and evolve under Knoblauch and company, in particular the apparent improvement of the penalty kill, and one of the biggest hurdles of the Woodcroft era. With a favourable January schedule ahead, even conservative estimates for the Oilers would see the team continuing their strong points pace under Knoblauch.
In the grand scheme, seeding only matters so much come playoff time, and if the Oilers find themselves in the postseason, they will be a formidable foe for any opponent. More simply, under Knoblauch the Oilers are cementing themselves as legitimate perennial contenders. Many may point to Stuart Skinner as the foremost concern of the roster, though he has been outstanding under Knoblauch. Skinner may not be to the level of other top goalies, like Connor Hellebuyck or Thatcher Demko, but the Oilers are a much stronger possession team than either the Winnipeg Jets or Vancouver Canucks.
With a history of strong playoff appearances, we should expect the Oilers to challenge the teams ahead of them on this power ranking in the months ahead, and have the potential to assert themselves as the top Canadian team by the end of the regular season.
Vancouver Canucks
The Vancouver Canucks might be one of the biggest risers across the league, though with their high end players a turnaround was always in the cards if the team was able to solidify their roster with balance. The front office has made several key moves in filling out their lineup, including a clear win with Filip Hronek. New coach Rick Tocchet is receiving his share of praise for his work, including the huge turnaround that the Canucks have achieved after a dreadful performance last season.
The Canucks do give some reasons for doubt, namely an inflated PDO (shooting percentage plus saving percentage), often seen akin to luck. The Canucks have been able to stay ahead this far, and might be able to continue the trend thanks to their elite players. Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and Thatcher Demko are all proven playoff performers, having performed well in the bubble playoffs of 2019–20, all capable of controlling a playoff series.
The Canucks might have their bubble burst, a harsh fall if their shooting or saving goes cold, yet the team showed some self awareness in their tenuous grasp of depth after Carson Soucy was lost to LTIR. Acquiring Nikita Zadorov early shows that management has not lost sight of how detrimental a weaker blueline has been to their returning to the playoffs. This might continue to the extent that the Canucks continue to upgrade their blueline into the trade deadline.
Winnipeg Jets
With the Winnipeg Jets having their best regular season to date, and leading the league in points, it is difficult to argue with giving them the top spot. What’s more is that the Jets have a clear identity, one that should carry over nicely to the postseason, boasting a strong defensive game that supports their best players, namely Connor Hellebuyck. Resembling many formidable playoff teams of years past, perhaps like the New York Islanders of 2019–2021, the Jets look to be a tough out for anything less than a true contending team on top of its game.
Through the early portion of the season, as well as the offseason leading up, there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the Jets, in both their present and future. With Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele re-signed, not to mention the less than content Pierre-Luc Dubois traded and former captain Blake Wheeler let go, the potential off ice disharmony surrounding the team has been shored up. Between the reestablished team identity and the results through roughly half the season, the mood surrounding the team is sky high.
The Jets do have a wealth of playoff experience on their roster, making them a credible threat when the rules loosen in the postseason. With a strong, physically imposing roster, the Jets have enough skill in their lineup to threaten opponents offensively as well. As long as Gabe Vilardi can stay healthy, he seems to be a great gamble for the team, as his abilities have never been in question. What’s more is that the Jets have some plausible upside for the future because of some talented younger players, some of which are already strong NHL contributors, like Cole Perfetti.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
