It’s been a little over a month since the Edmonton Oilers waived Jack Campbell and recalled Calvin Pickard, making Stuart Skinner the team’s clear cut starter. The move was not completely risk free, with Skinner struggling heavily to that point in the season. In fact, there was definitely a case that Campbell was having a better season than last year’s Calder Finalist. There were a lot of defensive errors, especially ones that don’t show up in the public expected goal metrics, but make no mistake about it, the goaltending needed to be better.
However, GM Ken Holland and co. decided that they had seen enough of Campbell, and were ready to put their faith in a bounce back from their young netminder. I think it’s also important to note that Calvin Pickard, while a respected veteran, is not a legitimate NHL option. He’s a quality AHL option but as a goalie that doesn’t rely on a ton of technique nor positioning and doesn’t have elite skating or tracking skills, he’s struggled in his recent NHL stints. In fact, I believe that the best option to give the Oilers quality starts behind Skinner is likely Olivier Rodrigue, but the organization is unwilling to look to a young unproven option at this point.
Skinner has held up so far
Since that November 7 change, Skinner has rewarded the confidence from the front office with solid play. In six games, he has a .906 SV%, 2.16 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), and +0.49 save percentage above expected (dSV%) per Evolving Hockey. Specifically in the Oilers’ six-game win streak, the 25-year-old has started every game, posting a .932 SV%, 1.82 GAA, and one shutout. You can argue over specific goals, but it’s tough to disagree that Skinner isn’t giving the Oilers a chance to win on a game-in game-out basis. Especially when you consider his $2.6M cap hit and the fact that the Oilers were supposed to run a platoon, the Oilers brass has to be happy with what they’ve seen over the last month.
Having said that, the Oilers desperately need to get an actual second option in goal. In the 32 days since Campbell’s demotion, Skinner’s 12 games played are tied for the most in the league with Colorado’s Alexander Georgiev. At a rate of .375 games per day and with the Oilers season taking 190 days this year, Skinner would be on pace for 71 appearances. However, the Oilers have had some rest through their November schedule, so if Coach Kris Knoblauch continues giving Skinner 12 out of every 13 starts, he’ll be on pace for 76 games. In an era where more is known about load management and fatigue than ever, that’s simply too much.
Will Skinner burn out?
We’ve seen this before from Skinner too. He had a great March and April in the regular season, starting 16 games over that stretch (a 68-game pace) where he won the March Rookie of the Month and was essential in securing the Oilers the second seed in the Pacific Division. That 68-game pace over a full season would have tied him with Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck for the NHL lead. Ultimately, that work load played a factor in the struggles the Oilers’ rookie would have in the playoffs, where his stats against quality competition suffered.
Well coming back to this season, Skinner is up to 12 of 13 starts. Whether you think Skinner can be the starter on a contender or not, there’s likely a drop off coming if he keeps playing this much. The Oilers play four games in seven days starting Sunday, with the likely easiest start coming on December 12 against the Chicago Blackhawks. Whether it be Pickard or a second chance for Campbell, that game will likely see a different starter for the Oilers. But that’s not enough, the Oilers need another goalie they can trust to play real games, and soon. Otherwise, they’ll crater the one legitimate option they currently have and be left with nothing at all, as has repeatedly happened in Edmonton under Ken Holland’s watch.
Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire
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