The Edmonton Oilers front office has made it abundantly clear where their priorities are heading into Friday’s trade deadline. The team appears set to make upgrades at forward and on defence, but will be standing pat with their goaltending depth chart of Stuart Skinner, Calvin Pickard, Jack Campbell, and Olivier Rodrigue.
In an interview with The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent Bowman, Oilers’ General Manager Ken Holland had this to say regarding the team’s crease:
No. I’m not exploring the market at all.
I’ve got a guy that was a Calder Trophy finalist with 27 wins and he’s (25) years of age. (Calvin Pickard) has come up and he’s done a real good job. He’s got a save percentage of .905 in his role as a backup. Jack Campbell’s played about as good a hockey as he’s (ever) played. He’s over a .920 save percentage (in the AHL) since the beginning of December. He seems to be settled in and playing great. Ollie Rodrigue continues to perform and produce at a high level.
We feel really good about our goaltending.
The Athletic
Not only is that message coming directly from the front office, but numerous insiders, including most notably Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts the Podcast, have stated that the Oilers are not in the goaltending market whatsoever.
The Oilers have set their path. But are they making the right decision?
Where they’re getting it right: Stuart Skinner
After what was a horrible start of the season for Stuart Skinner, the sophomore has busted out that slump and been everything the Oilers could ask for, and more. Through eight games, Skinner sat at -8.12 GSAx (per Evolving Hockey), only winning once. After a massive turnaround, marked by a franchise best personal 12-game win streak, Skinner sits at a .905 SV% and +9.7 GSAx, being worth four points in the standings to the Oilers. That kind of goaltending is starting netminder calibre, and the types of performance Skinner will need to keep up if the Oilers want a shot at a Stanley Cup.
What’s even more impressive is that Skinner wasn’t supposed to be in this position. It was supposed to be Jack Campbell leading the Oilers to the promised land, with the homegrown product providing serviceable back up minutes for cheap. But with the fall off of Campbell once arriving in Oil Country, Skinner has stepped up the occasion to fill the gap as a rookie and now a sophomore.
There’s no doubt still some concerns with Skinner as the guy heading into the post season. There was obvious struggles in last year’s playoffs after a heavy workload down the stretch, but that situation appears to be replicating again. Even within this season, Skinner has been volatile, bouncing between extreme hot and cold streaks.
The reality of the situation is that due to their roster construction and the bad contracts on their books, the Oilers are more or less stuck with Skinner as their starting goalie heading into the playoffs. There are better goalies around the league, but they just don’t make sense for the current state of the Oilers.
Linus Ullmark, Jusse Saros, Jacob Markstrom, and Jordan Binnington are four goalies that have been tossed around in rumours to varying extents throughout the season that would represent clear upgrades on what Edmonton already has. The problem is two fold: cap space and trade assets.
Skinner current makes $2.7M per year, which seems like a bargain based on the extreme usage he’s getting and the results he’s been able to produce thus far. Ullmark and Saros makes $5M while Markstrom and Binnington make $6M. For a team that doesn’t have a ton of cap space, each of those netminders would have to be retained to 50% unless the Oilers find a way to move Campbell’s money.
Even if the cap can be worked out, the Oilers don’t have enough assets to fix all the issues on their roster. In my opinion, and in what seems to be the opinion of the team a second line right winger who can score and right shot partner for Darnell Nurse are bigger priorities than a new starting goalie. The Oilers have assets, including prospects Phillip Broberg, Xavier Bourgault, and Beau Akey, along with most of their first-round picks in the next three drafts to use to improve their roster. But with rumoured asking prices starting at a first-round pick and another top prospect, along with the price to make the cap work, the Oilers would be using almost all of their expendable assets on a goalie, ignoring the other red flags on the team.
Skinner hasn’t been perfect. But between his cap hit, and the team’s roster construction, and available assets, the logical choice is for the Oilers to proceed with their drafted and developed netminder as their starting goalie.
Where they’re getting it wrong: The backup
The Oilers entered the season with Campbell as Skinner’s running mate. It wasn’t entirely his fault, as the defence in front of him was one of the league’s worst during his stretch with Edmonton this season, but the Oilers decided they had enough and waived their $5M goalie in favour of minor league journeyman Calvin Pickard.
Pickard has a .909 SV%, 2.40 GAA, and 8–3–0 record so far this season with Edmonton. By all accounts, he’s also been a great teammate in the room and a great partner for Skinner. The Oilers couldn’t ask for more from Pickard, who has been a career minor leaguer since departing the Colorado Avalanche.
The issue comes to the fact that Pickard isn’t a difference maker. So far this season, he’s added to a win three times, took away from a win four times, and minimized a loss, added to a loss, lost the Oilers a game, and stolen a game each once. This all nets out to a perfectly net zero goalie, who has given the Oilers what they given up in front of him.
That would be fine for most back ups. But most playoff contenders aren’t running out a sophomore starter that struggled in his playoff run (albeit after success at every other level in the playoffs). The Oilers will likely need more than that, and a deeper dive indicates Pickard doesn’t have the ability to be that guy.
Pickard has made seven starts against teams that I would consider potent offences this year. This includes Florida, New Jersey, Detroit, Dallas, and Minnesota, leaving out Anaheim, Chicago (sans Bedard) and Pittsburgh. In that stretch, Pickard has a cumulative -3.32 GSAx, surpassing a .900 SV% just once. That single .900 start came in December against the New Jersey Devils, who at the time were a team playing their fourth game in seven nights, including the second half of a back-to-back and the tail end of a three in four. The good starts against the lesser teams have floated his season long stats, but against quality competition, Pickard appears to stumble.
Edmonton has four sets of back-to-backs remaining in their schedule, with at least one opponent outside the playoffs during those games. Next weekend the Oilers play the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh Penguins, followed by the Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames, Arizona Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks, and Coyotes and Avalanche in April. There shouldn’t be an issue fitting in Pickard for those games.
Coach Kris Knoblauch said after the win against the Penguins that the intention was to play Skinner two-thirds of the games the rest of the way. With 22 remaining games, that would give Skinner another 15 starts (which would put him at a professional high of 58 regular season starts), leaving Pickard with seven. Taking out those 4 back-to-backs, the Oilers would be looking at at least three more starts.
The Oilers remaining schedule also includes games against Columbus, Montreal, Buffalo, Anaheim, and San Jose. If had I had to pick three, it would be the Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, and San Jose Sharks, but depending on the standings, the Oilers may try to squeeze Pickard into even more for some added rest for Skinner. There might be a wobble or two, but I don’t expect Pickard to be an issue in the regular season.
The playoffs will be another story. Pickard has a limited history of playoff performance at any level, and would be making his Stanley Cup Playoff debut if called upon. With the increased quality of competition and pace, my opinion is he wouldn’t be set up for success in that situation. Pickard’s skating and tracking ability is lacking, and as the speed and intensity ramps up in the playoffs, Pickard might get left behind.
The goaltending market is thin, with not many options that the Oilers can afford that would make sense. MacKenzie Blackwood was a good target, but his injury has thrown that option up in the air. Although the Oilers put six behind him in his last start, Alex Nedeljkovic makes a lot of sense due to his low cap hit and previous playoff experience, along with his excellent play so far this season.
With Barry Trotz deciding to keep Jusse Saros and with Yaroslav Askarov waiting in the wings, I wonder if Kevin Lankinen could be had for the right price. The Maple Leafs currently have three goalies on their roster, and while they aren’t willing to put him on waivers due to team’s looking for a free pick up, I wonder in Martin Jones could be had for a late pick. Anthony Stolarz has been tremendous for the Florida Panthers, but they also have Spencer Knight in the AHL, and might be convinced to let the former go for the right price (this one seems more doubtful). This would be a higher end acquisition, but adjusted numbers have loved Charlie Lindgren’s game going back a few years, and would represent a legitimate 1B option. Based on previous deadlines, the going rate for a back up option is about a third-round pick (David Rittich to Toronto, Scott Wedgewood to Dallas).
If it really came down to it, I would probably prefer the upside of Jack Campbell’s game in a playoff series over what Pickard brings to the table, especially once the cap considerations disappear in the postseason. But that presents risks in it’s own right. Olivier Rodrigue probably presents the highest technical upside outside of Skinner in the organization, but would be making his NHL debut pushed into action. The bottom line is that going into the playoffs with the current goaltending depth chart is testing fate, with inconsistency or injury for Skinner likely spelling the end of Edmonton’s cup hopes.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
I think it’s a mistake not trying to get another goalie in my opinion.