Heading into the holiday break, and after their first set of back-to-back games this season, the Edmonton Oilers authored a pair of third period comebacks to draw back to an even record. Though this mark is not impressive, given the Oilers uneven performance through the early months of the season, it is still sufficiently appreciated for hearts and minds across Oil Country.
As always, goaltending issue still needs to be fixed
The final games of the eastern road trip brought an end to a losing streak that certainly evoked memories of the Oilers early season struggles under former Coach Jay Woodcroft. The goaltending is forefront, though Sturt Skinner is looking more like himself, as the Oilers appear no closer to finding Skinner a legitimate tandem mate. The penalty kill, which had been much improved under Kris Knoblauch, seemed to falter, though these issues feed each other.
The honeymoon phase might be over for Skinner, with his stock falling in the eyes of many, though there is still a lot to like for Oilers fans. On a cheap, four-year contract, Skinner still has a chance to be a good tandem starter throughout his current deal. The Oilers might be able to afford a more expensive crease-mate thanks to this, though the term on such a deal should be less or equal to Skinner’s.
In the summer there was speculation that many teams might be looking to move a quality netminder, though that market seems to have frozen over. Time will tell what the Oilers are able to afford or uncover. Until then panic reigns as Calvin Pickard tops out as a third stringer, Jack Campbell becomes unplayable, and Olivier Rodrigue continues to find himself excelling in back up usage.
Rodrigue has been very strong or the Bakersfield Condors for 12 months now, and has been worthy of an increased workload, even if only at the AHL level. To pin championship aspirations onto Rodrigue, or at least a 35-game pace in the NHL is an ambitious ask when the organisation has yet to entrust him with that level of usage in the AHL.
Still, if the situation grows even more dire it might be worth considering Rodrigue for an emergency start or two, and he might even be ready to get his feet wet in the NHL. It seems irresponsible, but theoretically, and facetiously, it could be better for both Skinner and Rodrigue’s development to deploy them as an NHL tandem, as it might mean less starts for Skinner and more starts for Rodrigue.
The most prudent move is to find an upgrade, one might argue that it should be the greatest expense the team makes this season. A veteran to push for the starting job with one to three years left on their contract is ideal, as is finding a way to move off of Campbell. It essentially cost two first-round picks to turn Tyson Barrie into Mattias Ekholm last season, and another such deal involving Campbell might be even more expensive. Perhaps a more aggressive manoeuvre might be to buy out Campbell, or even hope the Oilers find a way to place him on LTIR.
Troubles up front
There have been some troubles on offence, as the Oilers continue to have below average finishing numbers as a team. Even both Connor McDavid, through injury, or more recently Leon Draisaitl have had relative dry spells already. In general, there is a growing appetite for the Oilers adding an impactful forward in the coming months.
With the trio of McDavid, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins thriving, the implication being that a winger to help Draisaitl. In conceptualising ideal linemates, we would like to support Draisaitl with speed and possession prowess, to allow Draisaitl the most offensive touches in space as possible.
The sample is quite small, but for this reason having Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele on Draisaitl’s wings might have some staying power. Since the start of last season, both McLeod and Foegele have dominated possession, though often lacking a true dynamic offensive presence to capitalise on their efforts, instead cast in a checking role. The duo might lack the high end quality that one might desire, but the Oilers might have some internal options.
Of course, Evander Kane possesses a lot of elite qualities, but as both he and Draisaitl underwhelm from a possession standpoint this would put a burden on their winger to be able to drive play. McLeod offers this speed and possession ability, and perhaps more so than Foegele has yet to get a chance alongside elite offensive players. The oft injured Dylan Holloway has yet to assert himself fully, but looks capable of delivering in a middle-six role. Raphael Lavoie is in the minors, but might have some of the high end skill qualities, yet has struggled to prove the rest of his game, meaning he is unlikely to aid in controlling possession.
Finding an upgrade over these three that is both available and affordable is the issue, and a tall task. Especially given the needs elsewhere on the roster, acquiring a player who can backfill for McLeod might be the more reasonable move. Last season Nick Bjugstad filled a similar need, though some might be hoping for a more impactful addition in either or both the short and long term.
A look ahead
The Oilers play a trio of division rivals coming off the break, a California road trip, before taking on a number of out of conference opponents. Until the middle of January the Oilers should be clear favourites in all but one game, against the Los Angeles Kings, and have one back-to-back as they play the Anaheim Ducks the night afterwards. The schedule through the rest of January is relatively soft as well, meaning the Oilers have as good a path to a long run as one could hope for.
Without much strain we can imagine the Oilers winning 10 of their next 14 games, though these points must be earned. Though the season has been bleak, such a run would put a lot of distance between the Oilers and the playoff outskirts, as well as building a confidence and identity under the new coaching staff. These are far more important matters for the Oilers than a sterling Presidents Trophy regular season, as more than anything the team needs to discover a cohesion and synergy that comes through self belief.
While the team has already shown a lot of will in a number of comeback wins this season, the key will be finding and maintaining a patience to commit to a tight defensive unity. Prospective inter division powerhouses await, in the Los Angeles Kings and the Vegas Golden Knights, teams that will make it difficult to score and will not beat themselves with defensive lapses or poor defensive performances.
The good news is that we’ve seen the Oilers show some signs that they are equal to the task. Though the shooting percentage of the team has struggled, by expected goals for the Oilers are elite. A long run of winning through January would hinge on the Oilers continuing to improve defensively, especially given that Pickard, or worse, is likely to see a few starts over that time.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
