Game 1 of the second round series between the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks got off to a dramatic start. Despite striking up a 4–1 lead headed into the third period, the Oilers managed to fall apart, conceding four goals to lose the game. While a number of things went poorly for the Oilers, one issue seemed to stand above the rest—shouldering the brunt of the blame are Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci.
Let’s take a look at the long-standing defence pairing and where it fits in the Oilers present.
History of the pairing
Not too long ago the pairing was unequivocally the Oilers top duo as the team went to the 2022–23 Western Conference Final, even with Nurse playing through a significant hip injury. Even at this time, the duo was far from universally beloved. While some of this was informed by stats, expected goals, or transition metrics for example, that did not look favourably upon the pairing.
Of course, some of this was driven by other factors, reputation and cap hit amongst them. Ceci was maligned by markets in Ottawa, Toronto, and Pittsburgh as his stock fell from loftier expectations, a right shot with size who could play on the top pair. Ceci has his warts, so much that many fans have hoped the Oilers moved off of him. At the same time Ceci has played a big role on the best and most consistent Oiler run of the cap era.
Nurse cashed in on a career year while the Oilers were toiling and desperate. The cap cost is more than ideal, but perhaps the Oilers are better served finding him a more beneficial partner. While he cost $2-3M more than one would hope, the Oilers should be able to support Nurse a bit more. Of course, many across Oil Country would prefer the cap space over the player, or are concerned with the term and how it affects the team going forward. In a cap world, a perceived overpayment of this magnitude inevitably leads to a reputation hit.
After Mattias Ekholm was acquired, taking the mantle as the Oilers top pair, the heat has been on the Nurse-Ceci pair. At times down the stretch, the Oilers even started to trust the duo of Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais with more, starting to push Nurse-Ceci for icetime. A tough Game 1 with a harsh -3 performance was merely the latest push in a negative direction.
As we can see in these playoff stats over the past three seasons, Nurse-Ceci has been overmatched frequently. While their reputations do impact how fans feel about them, the results are not flattering. Granted, the pairing was thrown in over its head more than any other duo. Despite this, the last three Oilers coaches have relied heavily upon Nurse-Ceci, which indicates that there might be more than meets the eye when it comes to evaluating the duo, or a lack of options to do otherwise.
Issues within the blueline
While the Nurse-Ceci pairing had a tough game one against the Canucks, it should be noted that their performance is not usually as poor. To an extent some level of bounce back effort should be expected, but clearly the issues extend beyond the results of one game. There are options available to the Oilers should they decide to switch up the look of their blueline in the series or beyond it.
Naturally, one option is to mix and match the bottom pairings. At times this season the Oilers did experiment with this, going with Nurse-Desharnais and Kulak-Ceci. The sample size of these pairing is small, but both performed slightly worse than the Oilers usual setup. Much of the focus would be on whether or not Desharnais is ready for an increased role, elevated to the top four. Perhaps this is a role that Desharnais can grow into, seeing as he only has a season and a half of NHL experience. However, it was the Kulak-Ceci pairing that struggled more.
In other words, one way or another, the Oilers should be open to looking at taking Ceci out of the lineup. Ceci has played a ton of minutes for a good team, more than ideal, but also more than one would expect given his mid-range cap hit. Holding both sides of this analysis simultaneously might seem contradictory, but is required to understand the truth: the Oilers have gotten decent value for their UFA signing so far, but could find an upgrade at a reduced price going forward.
Solutions are available
For now, this means making Ceci a healthy scratch. Luckily, the Oilers acquired Troy Stecher at the trade deadline. Stecher is a stable right shot defender who could step into any roles that Ceci has. Although undersized for his reputation as a defensive option, Stecher produces superior analytical results to Ceci. In brief stints the Oilers worked Stecher into the lineup down the stretch of the regular season, giving proof of concept to these results.
| Rank | Line | Type | Minutes | Games | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes | xGoals % |
| 1 | Kulak-Bouchard | D | 90.2 | 61 | 4.65 | 2.39 | 66% |
| 2 | Ekholm-Nurse | D | 73.8 | 69 | 3.9 | 2.28 | 63.20% |
| 3 | Ekholm-Bouchard | D | 1186.1 | 79 | 3.73 | 2.22 | 62.80% |
| 4 | Nurse-Bouchard | D | 80 | 65 | 3.52 | 2.1 | 62.70% |
| 5 | Nurse-Stecher | D | 47.9 | 5 | 3.38 | 2.25 | 60% |
| 6 | Kulak-Desharnais | D | 739.2 | 73 | 2.52 | 2.05 | 55.20% |
| 7 | Nurse-Ceci | D | 995.1 | 75 | 3.18 | 2.63 | 54.80% |
| 8 | Nurse-Desharnais | D | 180.6 | 40 | 2.52 | 2.16 | 53.90% |
| 9 | Kulak-Ceci | D | 209 | 52 | 2.5 | 2.73 | 47.80% |
While Stecher never saw time with Kulak as a partner, in almost 48 even strength minutes together the Nurse-Stecher pairing performed well, controlling expected goals percentage more than any of the usual options behind Ekholm-Bouchard. It is possible that the Oilers would elect to go with Nurse-Desharnais and Kulak-Stecher, but as the team clearly values stability within its defence pairings the most likely solution is to swap Ceci for Stecher outright.
The playoffs are a high stakes game that can end quickly. Still, chances are that the Oilers coaching staff will give Nurse-Ceci a chance to respond after their unfortunate Game 1 performance. Based on the past this might be loyalty blinding the Oilers to a better blueline.
Stecher is no spring chicken. Although relatively unknown as an Oiler, Stecher has made a routine of finding his way into playoff action when the chips are down. He has bounced around from team to team, unable to find his footing in any place for the long term. Were Stecher bigger and heavier it is quite unlikely that this would be the case.
With that said Stecher is a partner more conducive to Nurse’s success than Ceci. At this point Nurse has a greater impact on offence than he does defence, a minutes munching top four option at even strength. Nurse can play both special teams, but is not the ideal choice for the top unit on either. Nurse has some physical attributes that are beneficial to defending, notably size and speed. These physical attributes are appreciated by Stecher. Meanwhile, Stecher provides Nurse with a greater defensive impact than Ceci.
Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire
One Comment