In what is becoming something of an annual tradition, the Edmonton Oilers are rounding into elite form, born anew with the calendar year. Now 17–6 under new Coach Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers are not only becoming the legitimate contender that was expected in the offseason, but also showing signs that they are continuing their upward trend from a long term perspective.
Bigger picture for the rest of the season
The start of the season was disastrous, reminding us that anything can happen, to never feel too secure in any analysis, but there is reason to believe that the Oilers have gotten back on track under Knoblauch. Though he takes his share of criticism, and there have been several missteps along the way, GM Ken Holland has seen the team continue to build championship qualities.
Year to year the Oilers have gone from a group barely held up by the remarkable scoring primes of a pair of MVPs, slowly adding elements to their standard. The forward scoring depth has improved, the blueline reshaped into one oozing a blend of skill and mobility, as well as the trait defined by the reigning champion Vegas Golden Knights, size.
Under former Coach Jay Woodcroft, the Oilers emerged as a dominant possession team. This has continued to both sustain and evolve under Knoblauch and company, in particular the apparent improvement of the penalty kill, and one of the biggest hurdles of the Woodcroft era. With a favourable January schedule ahead, even conservative estimates for the Oilers would see the team continuing their strong points pace under Knoblauch.
In the grand scheme, seeding only matters so much come playoff time, and if the Oilers find themselves in the postseason, they will be a formidable foe for any opponent. More simply, under Knoblauch the Oilers are cementing themselves as legitimate perennial contenders. There have been some notable standouts worth examining.
Draisaitl’s new crew
While Leon Draisaitl is still capable of playing at an MVP level, the status quo had begun to bear more tepid results during the Oilers early season struggles. With control of the puck, Draisaitl makes every possession of the puck a threat to the opposing team, but he might have needed more favourable linemates to better support him, maximise his effectiveness. Under a new coach, and with time, enter a new look.
Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod were a significant factor as linemates in the Oilers rise to possession prominence under Woodcroft, famously forming a third line too good to break up alongside Derek Ryan down the stretch and into the playoffs last season. Regardless, any winger deployed with the McLeod-Foegele duo saw improved possession stats. While their work together is meaningful, they each deserve new appraisals in their own right.
McLeod had excelled as a checking centre, but never saw significant time on a line with high level scorers. The opportunity has allowed a greater offensive potential to reveal itself, thanks in part to an unsustainably hot shooting streak. Still, McLeod’s speed and transition prowess are undeniable assets to a Draisaitl line, and truthfully the greater element to his offensive game is his ability as a playmaker. Draisaitl elevates this, as a unique scoring talent, and quite frankly as one of the best players the game has ever seen.
Foegele, for his part, is playing the best hockey of his career. In truth, Foegele is playing a lot like what Oilers fans might hope for from Dylan Holloway. The Oilers might have a new opening at centre, with McLeod acing his opportunity. At some point Evander Kane might be elevated backup to Draisaitl’s line, perhaps with McLeod left to prove he can carry possession for a Kane-Draisaitl line that hasn’t had the best record in that respect. Perhaps getting Holloway up to speed at centre might be enough to build the confidence in both Holloway and the coaching staff to experiment.
Regardless, at least for the time being, the Oilers are getting the most of their new look lineup. Part of the overall success comes from the continued success of Derek Ryan. Against all odds, Ryan continues to prove an indestructibly positive presence in the bottom six, elevating his linemates.
Skinner proving himself in the starter net
Despite ending last season on a relatively lukewarm note, as the Oilers had issues against the Vegas Golden Knights last postseason, and swept up in the Oilers disastrous start to the season along with everything else, the past four seasons have been defined by exceeding expectations for Stuart Skinner. Of course the already discussed defensive improvements have made his job more tenable, but perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that Skinner seems to be doing so again.
While some might still question his viability as a true starter for a contending team, his play and his contract are virtually indispensable for the Oilers. Of course, the Jack Campbell situation will still need to be addressed in the future, and Calvin Pickard’s strong pinch up as a pure backup isn’t exactly the ideal, but Olivier Rodrigue offers some hope, as he has earned a look in the NHL at some point.
Essentially, the Oilers hopes in net are riding on Skinner’s shoulders, and for now the Oilers top goalie is up to task.
Developmental walls for the club
McLeod and Skinner are joined by other young players whose steps forward are helping to propel the team, including, to their own extents, Evan Bouchard and Vincent Desharnais. While all four are clearly integral roster players, the Oilers prospects lower down the depth chart have struggled to take steps forward.
All three of Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, and Raphael Lavoie find themselves in the AHL, unable to work their way into more prominent NHL roles. For each, the context is slightly different, though at this point they are at least getting the chance to continue playing meaningful roles in the minors. Along with Rodrigue in net, the Oilers do have a layer of potential call ups, offering a variety of skills at each position. Perhaps, next season, there might be issues trying to navigate waiver eligibility, but for now they still add value to the Oilers depth, and overall program.
Yes, their stock as trade assets is not at their peaks, but the book can stay open on their future NHL viability, to various extents. Perhaps on a weaker team, with different aspirations than the Oilers, would be finding a way to support these types of young talents in bigger roles, hoping they rise to the occasion.
Despite the catchy turn of phrase, the Oilers being “Cup or bust” is an oversimplification of the truth. So long as McDavid and Draisaitl are part of the program, the Oilers should have at least a puncher’s chance at winning any game. Moreover, a trip to the Western Conference final this year would hardly represent an outcome worthy of breaking up the core and starting a rebuild.
The truth is that the Oilers are truly focused on the here and now. It is a sign of depth that the Oilers have better options than these three players, and given their lack of results or usage in the NHL, having more time in the AHL might not be a bad thing. In fact, for the Bakersfield Condors, and more importantly the glut of young players on the roster, providing them with high end AHL talents, and contemporaries as aspiring Oilers, is most likely beneficial.
The clock is ticking down on a typical timeline for Lavoie, though the tools are present. Holloway’s stagnation might be as much injury related as anything else, and his luck has been rotten in this regard since being drafted. Even for Broberg, who carries higher expectations thanks to draft pedigree and the acquisition cost of his selection, seems a good bet as an injury replacement.
It should be noted that one non NHL prospect has made his way into a regular roster spot. James Hamblin is on the older side for a prospect, and is in a clear fourth line role, but has made the jump. If anything it is an example that there will always be exceptions to prospective timelines for young players, an example for the more touted trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Lavoie to focus on becoming their best selves, that there is still time to become regular NHLers.
Deadline ponderings
Broberg isn’t the only reason that a trade for a defenceman might seem lower on the Oilers priority list at this point. Some fans remain unenthused in featuring Cody Ceci in such a key role, though the continued growth of the Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard pairing has eased the load on Ceci. Of course, even without constraints like the salary cap a perfect team does not exist, and there are certainly better defensive right shots in the league, but Ceci deserves credit for an amazing chapter in his career, playing huge minutes for the Oilers most sustained winning in decades.
If anything, adding a depth piece on the right side, a serviceable injury replacement, might be a target, as the Oilers have a far greater quality and quantity of left shot options. The goaltending could easily be a target as well, though the market is at a standstill at this point, and a true upgrade might only become available in the offseason.
For this reason we might start to hear about a forward being the Oilers main target. With the shifting lineup, namely McLeod and Foegele’s promotions, the attributes the Oilers target might be in flux. With McLeod shifting to the wing, this might well mean that the Oilers target a centre. Often this is envisioned as a right shot, to balance the numbers of the Oilers lineup, who can be a reliable defensive presence, if not provide the Oilers middle-six with options throughout its potential permutations.
This might even sound like one of the Oilers deadline acquisitions from last season, Nick Bjugstad. With his Arizona Coyotes in the thick of the Western Conference’s wildcard race, reacquainting his services is unlikely. This might be most emblematic of how Connor Brown has not been able to fill in such a role, for now seen as a mistake that puts an early damper on the 2024–25 season thanks to a costly cap deferral that seems irresponsible, overzealous, or at least overly ambitious. Whatever malcontent is levied towards Darnell Nurse, and his being vaguely $2M more expensive than one might reasonably hope for, spending nearly $10M next season on Campbell and Brown is a far bigger issue.
Again, given that the focus of the team is on the here and now, it is only so productive to harp and worry on such things at this point, or more specifically to let this dampen the spirits surrounding the current roster. Naturally it would be nice to be spending the cap dollars more productively, perhaps a longer term Bouchard contract, but regardless of who occupies the role of GM, there will likely be more options available to the Oilers in the offseason.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
