The Edmonton Oilers have rebounded tremendously since their 5–12–1 start to the season. While they are still a bit out of a divisional spot, they’re back over .500 are in a pretty good position to grab a wild card spot with a bunch of games in hand. Under Coach Kris Knoblauch, the team is 17–6–0 in their last 23 games. Stuart Skinner looks better, Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are still one of the best pairings in the league, and most importantly, Connor McDavid looks like McDavid again.
However, there’s still a few concerning areas that the team needs to improve if they want a real shot at winning the cup: a goaltender, a legit 3C, and a right-hand defenceman. Unsurprisingly, these issues stated have been constant throughout the last decade in Edmonton and Ken Holland still really hasn’t improved on these since he’s came here. Stuart Skinner, Vincent Desharnais, Evan Bouchard, and Ryan McLeod (more on his role in a second) were all Peter Chiarelli draft picks. In year nine of Connor McDavid’s career, the team desperately needs to fill the holes plaguing them, otherwise it will be another short-lived postseason. Everything should be considered to be moved out this deadline. Holland needs to be going to go “all-in” this year like he did last season with Ekholm and Nick Bjugstad.
Once more, the three main targets the Oilers need are: A legit tandem goaltender for Skinner, a second pair RHD, and a forward, whether that’s a 3C or a winger for the top six. I believe I have found the best 10 options for the Oilers to target. I’ll go over what I think the Oilers should give up and at the end, I’ll put together my potential post-trade deadline lineup. (All RAPM charts shown are from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck, NaturalStatTrick and JFreshHockey)
Forwards
Since being put together, the McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele line has given Edmonton a very dangerous second line. The fourth line that has the likes of Sam Gagner, James Hamblin, Derek Ryan, and Adam Erne have also done a good job.
So the focus has now shifted to the third line that’s desperate for a third line C that can drive play. Evander Kane and Connor Brown have shown they cannot play with Draisaitl effectively. Could Dylan Holloway be the solution to 3C? Maybe. I think he’s still better suited as winger here though. Getting a C at the deadline would allow Foegele and McLeod to continue playing with Draisaitl. If that line stops being productive, you could always shift the 3C into a 2LW to play with Draisaitl as well. It allows so much more versatility within your lineup. Nonetheless, the Oilers should add at least one forward through a trade.
Here, I have three ideas for a centre and one idea if they go the winger route.
Sean Monahan
Oiler fans know Sean Monahan well from his time in Calgary. The upcoming UFA makes less than $2M and has 22 points this season in 38 games for the Montreal Canadiens. While he’s definitely not the same player he was when he was younger, Monahan is still a decent option for a team’s bottom six. He’s not the best defensively however and may not be able to drive his own line. I think Monahan would be a sort of Plan C for the orange and blue. As for a price, you’re probably looking at a second from Montreal.
Nic Dowd
Nic Dowd is one of the best defensive bottom six guys in the league. The Alabama native is signed for another year at a nice $1.3M cap hit. Dowd, however, appears to be moreso of an elite 4C than a true 3C. As well, Derek Ryan is pretty similar in comparison and makes $400k less. Therefore, I don’t think Dowd would be a wise option at the deadline unless we have no other choice. The acquisition cost would be a third round pick or so.
Anthony Duclair
Anthony Duclair, while not a defensive guru by any means, is a skilled, fast winger that could work for Draisaitl. At 28 years old, Duclair has bounced around a lot, seeing most of his success with the Florida Panthers. Duclair would be a good, cheap option for Edmonton if they decide to go the scoring winger route. In the 2021–22 season, Duclair scored 31 goals. The skill is there but he’s my very good plan “B” option. The price would definitely just be a third round pick.
Adam Henrique
The guy I think the Oilers should 100% grab come the deadline. The soon to be 34-year-old veteran Adam Henrique would make any contender instantly better. As a upcoming UFA making $5.825M, the Anaheim Ducks forward has been having a decent season. He’s held his own well enough in the defensive end and is one of the main 5v5 play drivers for the putrid Anaheim squad.
Over the course of his career Henrique has averaged ~40 points a year and is on pace to get that this season. Imagine what he could do with actual talent.
While the cap number is hefty, the Oilers can make the Ducks retain 50% since he has a year left, and could probably get another team to retain another 50% to bring his number down to $1.46875M which is an absolute bargin for Henrique. Also, we all know he’s a clutch playoff performer. A price would be a second-round pick, a mid-tier prospect to Anaheim, and probably a fourth-round pick to a broker team as we’ve seen before like with Toronto and Ryan O’Reilly. I could also see Cody Ceci being sent out in this deal to make the cap work for Edmonton if they find a RHD replacement (more on that soon).
Right-hand defencemen
Chris Tanev
I have already written about Chris Tanev about a month or so ago, so I won’t go into too much detail about his game. Fact of the matter is that he’d be the perfect fit for Darnell Nurse and would truly turn the Oilers D-core into the top 10 of the league. Sadly, he is on the Calgary Flames and they would definitely want some extra assets coming from their rival.
There’s also the injury concerns that Tanev had in Vancouver that thankfully haven’t shown up yet in Calgary. I truly hope we get him but I don’t know if Calgary would want to trade him to us. The price would definitely be at least a first-round pick and something else (Philip Broberg?) if we were to acquire him, along with Ceci back to other way for salary reasons.
Sean Walker
Sean Walker is having a terrific year so far for the Philadelphia Flyers. Playing a lot with Nick Seeler, the two have been one of the best pairings in the NHL. Walker by himself on the ice has a xG% of 54.19 and an actual GF% of 59.39. This mean’s he’s NOT overachieving and the Flyers are way better team when he’s out on the ice. As a pairing with Seeler, they have a xGF% of 54.7.
The Kenswick, Ontario native makes only $2.65M and will be an upcoming UFA this year. He’s cheap on the cap and may be one of the best rental RHDs out there besides Chris Tanev. Philadelphia reportedly is hoping to extend him, but if he’s out on the market, the price would appear to include a first round draft pick.
I think Walker would be excellent for Darnell Nurse, but a lot of teams will be interested in Walker’s services and can outbid the Oilers. I feel like the Oilers would only trade their first to either dump Campbell or to get a player with term, unless that player on an expiring contract is an elite winger like a Jake Guentzel. I do believe there’s another cheap, effective option for the Oilers that would be a great fit for Nurse on the second pair.
Dante Fabbro
Now here’s the guy who I think the Oilers are likely to target come deadline time. The former first-round pick from 2016 in Dante Fabbro. The defenceman has been in and out of the lineup for the Nashville Predators. Fabbro historically, according to MoneyPuck, has been a very good defensive dman with some offence to his game. Over his career he’s mostly played with star Roman Josi. Together in the past few seasons they put up a xG% of: 56.6%, 53.1%, and 53.7% the past three seasons. He even spent some time with Ekholm, putting up numbers like a 52.1% in 2020–21. NaturalStatTrick tells a similar story where Fabbro has a 58.16 xGF% with Roman Josi this season.
Isolated by himself, Fabbro still has solid defensive numbers: a 54.11 xGF% this season, a 49.74 xGF% last season, and a 52.13 and 51.37 xGF% in the previous years. Fabbro is an RFA this summer which means acquiring him wouldn’t be a pure rental. As well, I don’t think the acquisiton cost would be high. They can very well easily dump Ceci in this deal while also trading a mid-round pick such as a third. Fabbro would be an excellent fit for Darnell Nurse and stylistically fits the Oilers based on his play and contract.
Tandem goaltender
Charlie Lindgren
Charlie Lindgren may be one of the best options for the Oilers if they want a real, steady tandem goalie for Skinner. The Lakeville, Minnesota native only makes $1M and has another year on his deal after this. Statistically, this season he’s been one of the best goalies in the league. According to MoneyPuck, he has a GSAx of 12.3 which places him fourth in the league. It’s worth mentioning that he’s doing this on an okay Washington Capitals squad.
Last season he has a -3.8 GSAx, with the St. Louis Blues in 2021–22 he had a 4.50, and during his first few years in the league with the Canadiens, his combined GSAx was a 2.80. He’s shown he can be very, very reliable. His raw stats this season includes a .928 SV% and a 2.27 GAA.
Now my question is, would the Capitals trade him? I don’t really know. Any goalie deal needs to see Campbell going back the other way… and the Capitals already have a $5.25M goalie in Darcy Kuemper. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like they’re in rebuild mode right now, so taking on Campbell’s deal doesn’t make since for them anyways, unless the Oilers just dump him in a different transaction. It’s far more likely that Washington extends Lindgren. If he’s available though, he’s one of my top options.
Elvis Merzlikins
The soon to be 30-year-old has fallen off from his solid play years ago. In his first two seasons in the league, Elvis Merzlikins had a record of 21–21–13 in 61 games with a goals against average of 2.54 and a save percentage of .920 in his first two seasons. These numbers are borderline elite. Since then, he’s really fallen off and looks to be more of a PK specialist. However, the death of his close friend in Matiss Kivlenieks really affected his game. Merzlikins said in an interview that the cannon at Nationwide Arena brings PTSD to the tragic night where Matiss saved him and his wife.
Merzlikins is currently on a contract that pays him $400k more than Campbell’s $5M. Any deal that involves Merzlikins has to include Campbell the other way. The Columbus Blue Jackets have the likes of Danill Tarasov who looks to be a future starting goalie.
My question is… would Columbus take back a terrible contract? I don’t think so. They want to compete and end the rebuild they’ve been in. As for the Edmonton side, while Merzlikins and Campbell have the same amount of term left, and that Elvis is the better goalie, is he good enough to warrant his contract? Going back to his previous stated record in his first two seasons, what’s interesting is the fact that his GSAx is only -5.1 despite the strong numbers. This probably alludes to the fact he was carried by a strong Tortorella system. This year he’s at a .907SV%, a 3.25GAA and a 1.00 GSAx. A trade price would probably look like Campbell and a first. Considering all these factors, I would pass on Merzlikins.
Mackenzie Blackwood
Mackenzie Blackwood was viewed as the future netminder for the New Jersey Devils when he was drafted in 2015. During his first three seasons on a pretty terrible Devils team, Blackwood had a 46–41–12 record in 105 games with a goals against average of 2.83 and a save percentage of .911 in his first three seasons. His best year was in 2019–20 with a GSAX of a 7.9. However, things fell apart in 2021–22 and lost his job to Vanecek and Schmid in 22–23. Currently, this season he has a -3.3GSAx on the San Jose Sharks with a .891SV%. A lot of Blackwood’s struggles in New Jersey had to do with a pretty major injury.
“Last year he had a calcium build up so bad on his heal, that they cut a hole in his skate, and sewed a patch over it. He played with it. Then he had surgery and it tightened his Achilles and limited his ability to get in his stance properly,”
Kevin Woodley
Now, I’m not a big goalie expert, but fellow colleague, Oilingoal, also wrote about Blackwood last week. He believes that Blackwood is still a goalie that possess elite skills. San Jose is also a team that would be likely to take the contract of Campbell. The Sharks are going to be rebuilding for quite some time so over the next few years they’ll take on bad contracts to acquire more picks and prospects. They could acquire Campbell just for the season and then buy him out this upcoming summer. The price for Blackwood would look something like Campbell, a first and probably a third or a prospect. That’s a trade I think most fans would do… and the deal I think the Oilers make come the deadline.
Now, here’s comes the tricky part. When it comes to public models I showed above, goaltenders aren’t really reflected well except for Lindgren. However, CSA, a more accurate private model, loves Mackenzie Blackwood. Sadly, I do not have access to those materials. I still think the best course of action is to trade for Mackenzie Blackwood.
Final roster after the deadline
Going through all the options, I picked out the three players I think the Oilers will most likely target and *hopefully* acquire: Mackenzie Blackwood, Dante Fabbro, and Adam Henrique. Blackwood would be dealt for Jack Campbell, a 2024 first rounder, and a 2025 third-round pick. Fabbro’s deal would be a second-round pick in 2026 going the other way. Adam Henrique would see Cody Ceci, a 2024 second rounder, and a prospect (Jayden Grubbe?) going to Anaheim while Edmonton also sends a 2025 fourth rounder to a broker team to retain another 50% for the year.
If/when is all said and done, here’s your post trade deadline 2023–24 Oilers:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele
Kane-Henrique-Holloway
Janmark-Ryan-Gagner
Extras: Hamblin, Brown
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Fabbro
Kulak-Desharnais
Skinner
Blackwood
Here, the forward group is balanced out perfectly. There’s no weakness there. The D pairs are also nicely connected together and Skinner gets his 1A/B tandem guy for the next year or so. Here’s hoping the Oilers have a nice run to the deadline!
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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