The Edmonton Oilers are looking for a goalie again, in what is seemingly a never ending saga since Ken Holland took over the reigns as the team’s general manager. His marquee free agent Jack Campbell, who was supposed to shore up the position, now might have the worst contract in the league, as he struggles in the AHL during the second year of his five-year, $25M contract. Calvin Pickard is a fine AHL journeyman, his lack of structure will limit his long term effectiveness in the NHL, as has happened in his more recent NHL stints. His great start against New Jersey at home makes for a nice story and a locker room morale bump, but there’s a reason the Oilers haven’t used him a whole lot, as shown in the starts against the Panthers and in Newark.
Goalies are hot in the NHL market
The Oilers’ biggest issue is there are about five other teams also looking for a goaltender at the moment. Carolina’s crease seems in limbo, with Frederik Andersen’s return being uncertain due to his medical condition and Anti Raanta being assigned to AHL Chicago while Pyotr Kotchekov starts to settle in. The New Jersey Devils, whom the Oilers just saw, have both Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek struggling. Injuries to Pheonix Copley, Joseph Woll, Jake Oettinger, and Phillip Grubauer have their organizations looking around to see if they can acquire depth.
Meanwhile, there are very few legitimately available goalies. Montreal is likely looking to deal one of Jake Allen or Cayden Primeau, but apparently Kent Hughes’ ask is high. The Detroit Red Wings had three goalies and might have been willing to deal one, but recent injuries have put a halt to that plan. Nashville could logically look to move someone with Jusse Saros, Kevin Lankinen, and Yaroslav Askarov in the fold but reports indicate they are currently standing pat. There’s long been rumours that John Gibson wants out of Anaheim, particularly with emergence of Lukas Dostal, but his no trade clause and contract would make that a difficult trade.
Recently Kevin Weekes reported that the Phoenix Coyotes might look to move Karel Vejmelka, which could be an option for the Oilers. The Columbus Blue Jackets have four goalies that have played NHL games this year, so they could be willing to make a deal and have an intriguing option in Elvis Merzlikins. The Calgary Flames need to make space for Dustin Wolf, but Jacob Markstrom might be unwilling to waive his no move clause to come to the destination he originally avoided and Dan Vladar doesn’t seem like a solution.
Even with those available options, my favourite trade target is San Jose Sharks netminder Mackenzie Blackwood.
I recognize there isn’t a history of sustained strong play and that brings some risk for the Oilers, but if there was a risk free option (see Saros), that goaltender would likely have too high of cap hit or require too many assets to acquire for the current iteration of the Oilers. Ken Holland went all in and missed on Campbell as the solution to Edmonton’s crease, leaving limited investment available to try to patch it up. Here’s the reasons I believe Blackwood could be the best bet to solve the goaltending problems.
Blackwood is a high pedigree player with elite skills
Blackwood was the second goaltender taken in the 2015 draft when the New Jersey Devils selected him 42nd overall. The Barrie Colts product first starting playing goal at 12, marking an impressive development streak to a top prospect just six years later.
Elite Prospects had this to say about Blackwood heading into the draft:
A goalie who stays calm, cool, and collected in all situations, whether down by five or leading by ten. Knows his game inside and out, and never panics. With his size, it isn’t a surprise that he excels in the traditional butterfly-style; plays the puck intelligently and is quick to react with both his blocker and glove hand. Swift, crisp lateral movements let him get into positions where shooters have nothing to shoot at. At the end of the day, you can never complain when you have a goalie who tries as hard, and plays as consistently, as Mackenzie Blackwood.
Curtis Joe, EP 2014
Today, a lot of those same attributes remain. Blackwood sits at 6’4” and 225 lbs. Watching him play, he’s clearly an imposing figure in the net, but still brings explosive movement with that size.
The Oilers passed on Jesper Wallstedt, giving up a rare opportunity to acquire a high pedigree goaltender. There’s certainly been stumbles along the way, but Mac Blackwood could present a rare opportunity to buy low on that type of player.
Known injury history directly affected play
If the only thing one were to use to evaluate Blackwood was HockeyDB, he would be completely written off as an option. However, reports of his extensive injury history detailed by Kevin Woodley during various interviews exactly what ailed Blackwood.
The Thunder Bay native had a massive “Bauer Bump” on the back of his foot. The mass on his heel required the Devils’ equipment staff to cut a hole in the heel of his skate and patch it with tape just so a boot could fit around Blackwood’s foot. Eventually, surgery was performed to remove the mass, but upon his return to the ice, Blackwood’s hamstring tightened up to compensate for the new imbalance.
The result was three years where Blackwood could not be balanced in his stance, with one foot having that ailment attached to it. This made skating movements tough and even something as simple as reacting to pucks from a neutral position difficult. Obviously, good results would be better to target, but as a buy low option, the injury explains some of the poor previous results.
The Sharks are an organizational fit for a goalie trade
As much as the Oilers need to acquire a goalie, they need to dump Campbell and his contract just as much. There are three and a half seasons left at $5M per season. Based on recents reports, most notably from Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts and OilersNow, the Oilers management group has lost all faith that Campbell can be a legitimate option at the NHL level. Olivier Rodrigue (more on him soon) has taken over as the Bakersfield Condors starter after Campbell’s stint in the AHL has gone miserably.
With Campbell in Bakersfield, the Oilers aren’t fully headache free. This year, the Oilers get $1.125M of cap relief, with $1.15 M of cap relief coming in the remaining three seasons of Campbell’s contract. As the Oilers try to put together the best possible roster in the last couple seasons of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s contracts, the remaining $3.85M that will sit on the NHL cap ledger is a significant barrier to success.
The Sharks might be one of the only teams in the league that has the capacity and a potential willingness to take on Campbell’s contract. It would be expensive due to the length, total money owed, and the fact that it’s nearly impossible to hide bad goalie contracts, but with the Sharks appearing to be primed for a long rebuild, the could potentially swallow the anchor contract if they’re enticed to.
On the other hand, Blackwood makes $2.35M for this year and next, which would allow the Oilers to have shorter term commitments if things go sour, have extra cap space to make other additions to the roster, and potentially help facilitate the trade by retaining some of Campbell’s contract.
With that in mind, a potential Jack Campbell buyout in the summer would look like this:
A deeper dive shows Blackwood has been better than the box score shows
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