This second round series against the Vancouver Canucks was always going to be a much more difficult challenge than the first round cakewalk against the Los Angeles Kings. The Canucks have legitimate stars on their team, enough firepower to score against any goalie, and a big, mean defense that can make life difficult for their opponents.
But, they don’t have their Vezina nominated goaltender, Thatcher Demko.
And last night, when the Oilers roared back after a tough outcome in Game 1, they proved that the Canucks are going to need all their stars firing at all cylinders to beat the Oilers.
Goaltending edge
Really, the one area where the Canucks had a clear edge over the Oilers on paper was between the pipes. There’s no question that Demko is a better goalie than Stuart Skinner, and with Demko as the last line of defense, the Canucks had a shot at beating the high-flying Oilers.
Unfortunately for them, they’re down their first and second string goalies, forced to play Arturs Silovs in critical playoff matches. While he hasn’t played poorly, necessarily, he’s not better than Skinner, and the Canucks’ edge has disappeared.
Through two games so far, the goaltending battle is close between the two netminders, which is a dagger for the Canucks.
| Goalie | GA | SV% | GSAA | xGA | GSAx | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs | 8 | 0.837 | -2.78 | 5.37 | -2.63 | 0.818 |
| Stuart Skinner | 8 | 0.814 | -3.42 | 4.86 | -3.14 | 0.900 |
So far, both goalies have allowed eight goals against, both are within one goal saved below average, both within one goal saved below expected, and Skinner has the clear edge in high danger save percentage.
The key here is that the Oilers are creating a lot more quality chances against Silovs, and with the two goalie basically neck and neck right now, it’s only a matter of time before Skinner starts to pull away.
Without Demko, the Canucks are beatable, and the Oilers proved that their method of constant pressure is enough to tilt the scales in their favour. Skinner just needs to be fine, and there isn’t a deficit in net.
Facing McDrai at home
What is going to make the difference in this series as it heads back to Edmonton for three of the next five games if required, is that the elite duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will get home ice advantage.
Last night’s game was a masterclass in hockey domination. It wasn’t even close how much the McDavid, Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman line fed the Canucks their lunch.
Out of every single line combination that played last night for either team, the McDrai-Hyman line was on the ice together at 5v5 for a whopping 18:31. The next most common line combination was the Canucks’ trio of Dakota Joshua, Elias Lindholm, and Conor Garland who played 11:13.
This Oilers top line ran circles around the Canucks, putting up otherworldly numbers the entire night.
| CF | CA | CF% | SCF | SCA | SCF% | HDCF | HDCA | HDCF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 7 | 81.58 | 18 | 1 | 94.74 | 9 | 1 | 90 |
31 shot attempts, 18 of which were scoring chances, nine of those high danger, and all rank first across both teams last night.
It wasn’t even remotely close.
And it wasn’t even just the generation, they converted, too.
They scored two goals, allowed none, and were the difference as both McDavid and Draisaitl factored on all four goals.
The reason why the Oilers are going to take the series is that with the series shifting to Edmonton, the Canucks lose their ability to line match against this elite line. They couldn’t handle McDrai at home, there’s no way they’ll be able to do anything to stop that machine on the road.
