When it comes to the Edmonton Oilers, the one word that is most associated with the team is “scoring”. But it is usually tied with “top-heavy”, as the bottom-six tends to leave something to be desired.
It is an area that has been lamented plenty in the past as a shortcoming for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations. With the Oilers on a tear since a coaching change in November, but the question is whether that is just due to the top end players, and specifically Connor McDavid, finding their offensive groove again, or whether or not the rest of the team is contributing.
Oilers fans would say that it is the latter (or at least both) based on the eye test, but do the numbers support that? Further, how does the depth scoring for the team this year compare both to previous years as well as to other contending teams?
Let’s take a look.
Oilers depth goal scoring 2024 vs. 2023
McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are firmly entrenched in the Oilers’ top-six, and have contributed plenty of scoring as in years past. This year is no different, with the four of them combining for 76 goals so far, good for 52.8% of the team’s 144 goals.
The other two spots in the top-six have been a rotation this year, however. Evander Kane, a usual mainstay on one of the top two lines since joining the Oilers, has found himself spending most of his time on the third line. Warren Foegele has now taken that spot and is making the most of it, but given his history of inconsistency it is uncertain if he has taken the next step or is just riding a hot streak.
Ditto for Ryan McLeod, who was a part of that red-hot second line with Foegele and Draisaitl, but who has again been moved to the third line (although that is more for center depth than an indictment of his play).
Outside the big four, the Oilers have had 44 goals from their forwards through 41 games, with only Connor Brown and Raphael Lavoie not putting a single one in the back of the net. That works out to 30.6% of the team’s goals.
Kane leads the way with 14 goals (which actually puts him for third on the team ahead of Nugent-Hopkins), followed by Foegele with nine and McLeod with eight.
Last year, the non big four forwards had tallied only 33 goals in the first 41 games, with Kane, Klim Kostin, and Derek Ryan tied for the lead with five goals apiece. The Oilers also had 144 goals in 41 games that season, meaning the depth only accounted for 22.9% of the teams goals.
Therefore, the depth scoring up front is quite a bit better so far this season, although last year’s team did pick it up towards the end of the year, finishing with 97 of the teams 325 goals, 29.8% of the scoring.
On the back end, last year’s defensemen had scored 18 goals by game 41 (12.5% of the teams goals). This year, Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse alone have combined for 17, with the entire D-corps notching 24 goals so far (16.7%). They are also only 15 goals back of what the defensemen scored all of last season.
So overall the team is getting more contribution throughout the lineup from last year.
During this 12-game winning streak, the Oilers have had nine of their regular 12 forwards score a goal, and only James Hamblin hasn’t notched a point.
Of the teams 46 goals during this period, 15 have come from the non big four forwards, or 32.6% of the goals, an increase over the season average. Five have come from the back end, resulting in a slight drop to 10.9% of the team’s goals, meaning the contribution of the big four has increased to 56.5%
How Much are McDavid and Draisaitl factoring into the depth scoring?
While the McDavid and Draisaitl’s goal contribution is down this year (38 goals/26.4% versus 55 goals/38.2%), are they still contributing to the goals created as much?
McDavid and Draisaitl have a combined for 109 points, which results in 75.7% of the possible 144 points they could each have. Obviously, there have been plenty of goals that they have both scored points on, so it’s not fully that 109 of the goals have come from them, but it still shows how they are a huge part of the offence.
The crazy thing though is that last year at the 41 game mark, McDavid and Draisaitl had combined for a whopping 138 points, meaning they had a points percentage of 95.8%.
That alone shows that the rest of the team has been stepping up.
Comparison versus other contending teams
Here are the numbers for the non top-four forwards based on points for each of the top five teams in the NHL as of January 19th:
- Vancouver Canucks: 67 of 170 goals in 45 games (39.4% of team goals)
- Boston Bruins: 58 of 147 goals in 44 games (39.5% of team goals)
- Winnipeg Jets: 63 of 143 goals in 43 games (44.1% of team goals)
- Colorado Avalanche: 53 of 170 goals in 46 games (31.2% of team goals)
- Florida Panthers: 39 of 138 goals in 44 games (28.3% of team goals)
While the Oilers are still a bit aways from the top three teams, they are in line with the Avalanche and ahead of the Panthers, which is certainly some good company to keep.
When it comes to the top two players for each team’s point percentage, the Canucks’ J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson have combined for 70.6%, the Bruins’ David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand have 71.4%, the Jets’ Mark Schiefele and Nikolaj Ehlers have only 51.7%, the Avs’ Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen have 77.1% and the Panthers’ Sam Reinhart and Aleksander Barkov have 73.9%.
So the Oilers are again basically in line with the other top teams vis a vis the contribution from the top of the lineup.
Comparison versus previous cup winners
Here are the numbers for the previous five cup winners non top-four point scorers during their regular season:
- 2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights: 140 goals (51.5% of team goals)
- 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche: 126 goals (40.4% of team goals)
- 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lighting: 83 goals in 56 games (45.9% of team goals)
- 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lighting: 90 goals in 70 games (36.7% of team goals)
- 2018-19 St. Louis Blues: 97 goals (39.3% of team goals)
Therefore, it would appear that around 40% of the team goals coming from the depth forwards is the rate that is consistent with Stanley Cup winning teams, a mark that the Oilers are still a ways away from. Even during this historical 12-game stretch the Oilers are a fair amount behind.
So is the depth scoring actually better this year?
The Oilers depth scoring isn’t quite leaps and bounds better than it finished with last year, even if we are hearing about it more. That’s likely due to the outstanding performances by Foegele and McLeod during this winning streak, posting 12 and 11 points respectively.
Prior to the win over Seattle, the rest of the depth scoring wasn’t as robust, as Kane was seventh in points among forwards during the last 11 games with only three points in his previous 10 games. His two points last night though improves him to a more respectable five points in 11 games, which are also all at even strength. The next though is Derek Ryan with only two points in 12 games, so the rest of the bottom-six is not really producing at all.
But the Oilers are dominating play, as can be shown by the fact that they haven’t allowed more than three shots in the last 10 minutes of any game during this streak. But it hasn’t been just during this streak. Over the course of the entire season, the only player on the team who has an xGF% below 50% is Raphael Lavoie, who has only played seven games.
To put that in perspective, Florida has five players who have played more than 10 games below 50%, Winnipeg has six, Vancouver has seven, Colorado has 10, and Boston has only nine players above 50% (including Milan Lucic with only one game played).
The question then is whether that depth possession will eventually result in actual increased depth scoring, and if not, is the possession itself enough for the Oilers to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender? Only time will tell, but it does appear that the Oilers are trending in the right direction.
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