The case for the Edmonton Oilers’ second best player

At the very bedrock of the Edmonton Oilers program are the convergent pair of all-time top players in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. For the first time in a long while the duo isn’t setting new standards of production, pacing a league with an upward scoring trend not seen since the early 1990s, but both are still clearly in their primes, and easily among the highest echelon league wide.

Even so, it hasn’t been enough, despite their Herculean efforts, for the Oilers to reach their goal. As their contracts wind down, the next two and three seasons bear an added pressure, as that is when Draisaitl and McDavid’s current deals expire. The flip side of this bears as much stress, as the organisation must prove to both players that it is worth staying in Edmonton.

In truth, both goals share a criterion for success, broadly, help beyond the MVP talents of the Oilers. In a cap world, this also means budgeting and balancing the lineup. Let’s look at all the angles of this concept, by prognosticating the duo’s future contracts and play, as well as the implied teambuilding realities for the Oilers.

Cap forecast

Since the world shut down, the NHL’s salary cap has stagnated, locking our concepts of valuation rigidly into specific salary numbers. While this will always be part of the NHL’s reality, at least under the current CBA, the skies ahead are changing, in fact reverting back to normal. With the cap on the rise, we must readjust to considering the percentage of the cap as the more useful tether. Along with this is an acknowledgment that, presumably, with each passing season a contract will decrease in cap percentage as the league’s cap ceiling increases.

In short, we can be assured that both McDavid and Draisaitl will see significant raises on their next deals. For Draisaitl this rings true in particular, as his current deal has been one of incredible value for the Oilers. We should expect Draisaitl’s next deal to be much closer to McDavid’s in both cap percentage and cap hit. Given a rise to the salary cap ceiling, at a conservative estimate of $4M per season, the 16.67% of the cap contract that McDavid started in the 2018–19 season would be roughly $16M in 2026–27, when his next deal would start, under an estimated cap ceiling of $95.5M.

For Draisaitl this means a contract well within the ballpark of a $14M cap hit. His current deal was at 11.33% of the cap at signing, a rate we should expect to increase. For reference, a contract at that percentage of the cap under an estimated $91.5M ceiling would be a $10.4M cap hit. Signing at a cap percentage in the ballpark of other elite players league wide, for example the recent extensions for David Pastrnak and William Nylander at 14% of the cap, would be a $12.8M cap hit.

A lot of time still exists between now and then, and a lot is being taken for granted in such discussions, but at this point fans across Oil Country should be aware that keeping their superstar duo for less than a combined $30M cap hit on their next deals would be a huge win for the team.

This is, quite frankly, the ideal scenario. By reputation, the Oilers path to contention exists because of the excellence of McDavid and Draisaitl. Their continuing to be so is the key to their success as well, and must be compensated fairly. Given their chemistry and how important they are to each other’s Stanley Cup aspirations—and the fact that Draisaitl’s contract ends a year before McDavid’s—means that the Oilers can’t afford not to offer Draisaitl top dollar to remain with the team, paying him in line with his historic reputation, regardless of how much his play is perceived to fall off, if at all.

Play forecast

For McDavid, there is little doubt that a return to form as the world’s best player is already enacted. Even after a relatively tepid start to the season, McDavid is still the betting favourite, as of January 12, to win the MVP. For many of the other great players in this generation, this might be a rare shot at an MVP, and these odds also highlight that the mantle of second best player is entirely up for grabs.

At one point there was a legitimate argument that this mantle belonged to Draisaitl, though this is no longer the case. Unfortunately, for Draisaitl the effects of age and the Oilers early season struggles seem more profound than in McDavid’s case. In particular, Draisaitl’s lines with Evander Kane were being out-possessed by a wide margin.

Rank	Line	Type	Minutes	xGoals %	xGoals For Per 60 Minutes	xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes
1	Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins	F	232.7	74.90%	4.93	1.65
2	Hyman-McDavid-Draisaitl	F	72	67.10%	4.25	2.08
3	Foegele-McDavid-Draisaitl	F	37.1	63.60%	2.27	1.29
4	Hamblin-Ryan-Gagner	F	42.2	60.60%	2.84	1.85
5	Kane-Nugent-Hopkins-Hyman	F	58.6	59.20%	4.61	3.17
6	Foegele-Ryan-McLeod	F	51.3	57.90%	2.57	1.87
7	Foegele-Draisaitl-McLeod	F	87.5	57%	4.46	3.36
8	Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl	F	41.3	53.50%	3.34	2.91
9	Kane-Draisaitl-Brown	F	91.6	45.70%	2.42	2.88
10	Kane-Ryan-Janmark	F	47.4	44.80%	1.64	2.02

Being thought of as a consensus best player behind McDavid is an unrealistic burden by definition, and requires a domination of all aspects of the game to hold such a title for any prolonged period of time. Players may ebb and flow throughout their careers as well. At some point both McDavid and Draisaitl will hit career highs in production, or rather, won’t continue to do so in each successive season, as they have been.

In other words, there is no reason to believe that both McDavid and Draisaitl won’t outperform their near mortal first half’s to this season in the future. Given Draisaitl’s quality and history, there should be little reason to fear for his status as one of the league’s best, not to mention one of history’s greatest playoff scorers. His past successes, and MVP, are extremely rare accomplishments, as Draisaitl has already authored feats beyond many first ballot Hall of Famers.

Moreover, we should instead interpret these lacklustre possession numbers as a sign that the Oilers should look to deploy Draisaitl alongside more favourable linemates. The good news is that the team has found some synergy with Ryan McLeod, and to an extent Warren Foegele on Draisaitl’s wings. McLeod, in particular, brings a very compatible impact to Draisaitl, dominating possession thanks to fantastic transition defence.

Draisaitl has the physicality and hockey sense to be effective during in-zone defending, but appreciates the legwork McLeod provides here, as well as Foegele’s forechecking. While neither can be counted on for as much offence as Kane, for example, their skills better maximise the effect Draisaitl can have on the game. As long as his team has the puck, Draisaitl is a unique scoring threat capable of turning relatively benign opportunities into goals, and so providing Draisaitl with linemates that control possession will ensure the best results.

Team forecast

Because Draisaitl is such an uncommon talent, his impact has long been contentiously debated, particularly by models that measure GAR or WAR (goals above replacement or wins above replacement). Requiring lower possession stats to be effective, models that rely on these principles often don’t look as favourably on Draisaitl’s game as one would expect. Even offensively, Draisaitl is a consistent scorer from an area that is not dangerous for most shooters, which would not register as well as attempts from lesser shooters in better scoring positions.

We should keep this in mind when we look at these GAR and WAR stats, courtesy of Evolving-Hockey. Hyman, for example, has outscored Draisaitl this season by seven goals, though Draisaitl is still second on the team in points. Hyman generates more shots from conventional scoring areas, specifically the net front, which might help explain his truly gaudy performance by these metrics. For the record, the top five Oilers in these metrics all rank within the top 25 skaters league-wide, forming what is undeniably one of if not the league’s best core.

	Player	xGAR	xWAR	GAR	WAR
1	Zach Hyman	16.2	2.5	16.8	2.6
2	Evan Bouchard	13.9	2.2	14.4	2.2
3	Connor McDavid	12.9	2	12.1	1.9
4	Leon Draisaitl	10.9	1.7	11.4	1.8
5	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	8.8	1.4	7.2	1.1

While Draisaitl had a significant amount of time in the conversation for second best player in the league, his being the second best player on the Oilers has never been in question. The truth is that this analysis is reductive, and the game to game is much less black and white.

For many of these years, and particularly during the playoffs, Draisaitl has been the best player for the Oilers on a number of nights, pushing McDavid, or rather pulling the Oilers to victory together. This isn’t, nor should it be, taken as a slight to McDavid, but rather a positive sign regarding team depth. By this logic it should be taken as a positive evolution that the Oilers have players pushing for Draisaitl’s being the second best Oiler on a nightly basis.

Zach Hyman has continued to add to his game, improving each season he has been in the league, and defying ageing standards. At this point he is a legitimate candidate for a best on best team Canada. While Hyman deserves credit for this in his own right, there is little doubt that his playing on McDavid’s wing has a huge effect on these results. Within the half season that has unfolded so far it is understandable to see how one might describe Hyman as the Oilers most impactful skater, though in projecting the future, or within a vacuum, there is no way that McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t the consensus choices.

Who is the second best player?

In other words, Hyman is one of the greatest UFA signings in NHL history, who has taken over more than his share of games throughout the season so far. It’s obvious to see how much the Oilers needed this level of play as well. Time will tell how many more years Hyman can continue to improve, but at the very least we should expect him to continue challenging McDavid and Draisaitl for the team’s most impactful forward on a nightly basis.

The more meaningful challenger to Draisaitl’s crown of second best Oiler is Evan Bouchard. A young defenceman coming into his own, Bouchard has supplanted Darnell Nurse as the team’s leading defenceman by icetime. Deployed in an ideal situation, Bouchard has continued to soar to new heights partnered with Mattias Ekholm and as the Oilers top power play option among blueliners.

Bouchard is excelling in virtually all aspects of the game. His unique offensive talents are obvious to see, but his ability to control possession has become undeniable. Naturally, a stable veteran presence who excels in the defensive dirty work, as in Ekholm, has a lot to do with getting the most out of Bouchard. His impressive performance is captured across all player ranking models, showing us an image of an elite player entering his prime.

Are there some Oilers fans who still think that Evan Bouchard is not good defenseman? In our opinion he's an elite player, as we said many times before already. Actually, one of the best contracts in the NHL right now. However there will be definitely a big increase in 2025. pic.twitter.com/YzEwi94HTy

— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) December 29, 2023

Norris Trophies, the NHL’s award for top defenceman, are hard to come by, and often take a years long resume, as well as a favourable narrative, to win. As such it is unrealistic to expect that Bouchard will win, or even be one of the three official nominees for the award this season. However, it is reasonable to expect that Bouchard will receive legitimate consideration for the award down the stretch of this season, in essence launching a campaign to have a shot at winning the Norris down the road. Facetiously, the Oilers fans might hope that isn’t the case prior to Bouchard’s current deal expiring, the same summer as Draisaitl’s current deal, in order to keep cap costs low, though Bouchard has undoubtedly earned a raise.

By definition the notion of major award victories applies pressure to Draisaitl’s being the Oilers second best player from a longer term perspective. This is great news for the Oilers. Still, Draisaitl is a decent bet for major awards of his own. The regular season goal scoring lead might not see Draisaitl as the outright favourite he once was, but it would hardly be a surprise to see him capture another. A playoff MVP is quite possible, or even more likely, given how well Draisaitl has performed in the postseason.

In conclusion, Draisaitl has serious competition when it comes to projecting the Oilers second most impactful skater into his next contract. That contract will be significantly higher than his current deal, which might decrease the Oilers flexibility within an already narrow confine. Both of these are good things for the Oilers, who are proving that their status of perennial contenders is actualized, and that their chances of achieving glory are improving within that.

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Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire