Zach Hyman is good at hockey. Signed to a seven-year, $38.5M contract in the 2021 offseason, a deal that drew criticism from analysts due to the length and dollar size due to Hyman’s age (Hyman is 31), he has become a bargain at his value. Not only is he a key cog in the Edmonton Oilers’ top six, but he has positively impacted the surrounding community, including being a published children’s author.
Conventional statistics (rank)
| G | A | P | H | SB | S | S% | GV | TK |
| 12 (1) | 11 (5) | 23 (3) | 20 (8) | 15 (7) | 71 (1) | 16.9% (2) | 5 (13) | 8 (10) |
Deemed to be too expensive for Toronto, Edmonton quickly pounced on the opportunity to land a perfectly suited complementary piece to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Not only is he talented with the puck, driving the play and net with the physical presence essential on special teams, but is not always given recognition for his tenacity, grittiness, speed, and heart.
His conventional metrics and ranking among Edmonton players indicate his offensive capabilities. Among Oiler players, Hyman places:
- First in goals
- Fifth in assists
- Third in points
- Eighth in hits
- First in shots
Additionally, Hyman retains a positive margin of takeaway differential. Truly a difference maker in Edmonton’s top six, Hyman has provided a massive boost to the Oiler’s forward corps with his presence to stand in front of the opposing team’s net on Edmonton’s powerplay, either via screening for a Bouch bomb or being there to tap in rebounds from the High Danger area. Moreso, Edmonton designs plays illustrating Hyman’s grit. Multiple times Hyman has found himself on the far corner of the post across from Draisaitl or McDavid, with knees locked together and either player lobbing a shot at Hyman to either be redirected into the net via bounce off Hyman’s shin pad or to fall at his feet for him to whack in.
Underlying metric review (rank)
| iXGF | XG Diff | XGF | XGA | XG% | C% | SCF | SC% | HDCF | PDO |
| 12.3 (1) | -0.3 (10) | 23.8 (3) | 16.6 (6) | 58.9 (5) | 57.4 (8) | 206 (6) | 56.1 (10) | 98 (3) | 0.994 (5) |
Hyman can be anointed for each future reference as the “Expected Goal Goat” as he places himself perfectly in the opposing zone via High-Danger opportunities, taking advantage of quality scoring chances. In terms of individual expected goals for, Hyman ranks first on Edmonton with 12.3 expected goals, slightly off from his actual production of 12. Hyman’s 12.3 expected goals place him in elite company, sixth in the NHL, just behind Auston Matthews, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Brock Boeser, and Sam Reinhart.
Additional metrics of Hyman’s on-ice qualitative production paint an overall positive season. When present on the ice, Hyman ranks third with 23.8 expected goals and 16.6 expected goals against, indicating a net positive expected production of a net margin differential of 7. This is confirmed by the shot quality category (XG%), with Hyman ranking fifth on Edmonton at even strength, showcasing he is driving high opportunity chances and mitigating chances against from the slot. Additionally, Hyman is controlling puck possession alongside shot quality, highlighted by the Corsi possession category (C%), proving chances are generated with him on at 7.5% above statistical indifference.
What else contributes to Hyman’s large expected goal total? As discussed in previous iterations of my writing, expected goal totals are indicative of shot quality. As the above table largely showcases, Hyman totals substantial volume in terms of even-strength high-danger opportunities from either the slot/trapezoidal area in front of the net; hence Hyman’s tenacity to drive the net to clean up rebounds. For reference, he sits third on the team in total High-Danger chances and sixth in overall scoring chances. Of Zach’s 206 scoring chances he has been present on the ice, almost half (~48%) have been from the aforementioned high-danger areas.
However, it should be noted, that although Hyman ranks sixth in total scoring chances for, he ranks 10th in scoring chance percentage. Indicating that defensively, Hyman has also given up a large volume of chances against, though they are not as High-Danger as the ones he takes.
Hyman contributes greatly to the Oilers
Overall, Hyman has been very productive in his third season in Blue and Orange. Seamlessly fitting in alongside McDavid and Draisaitl, Hyman has brought value and an edge of grittiness Edmonton sorely lacked before his time.
Currently operating at an 88-point pace if Hyman plays the rest of the 81-game season (missed a game due to illness), Zach’s expected and actual goal total should continue to climb; if the current pace continues to be maintained, Hyman’s expected goal total should equivocate should total 47 and actual total 46. Including his contributions to the team and community, Hyman is exactly the player Edmonton needed to bring an additional edge to the top six while continuing to provide metrics that align with results.
References:
https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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