A quick glance at what a Leon Draisaitl contract looks like

This past week in an article interviewed and written by Mark Spector, Leon Draisaitl spoke a bit about his free agent status looming in 2025. Draisaitl gave pretty dull, cliche hockey answers. He referred to the fact that he’ll do what’s best for him and that his goal right now is to win the cup with the Edmonton Oilers. As usual, in Oiler land, fans were quick to react to his comments, most fearing that a non-dedicated answer about loving Edmonton means he’s leaving. I’ll be the first one to say that he won’t leave. Free agents do this all the time. It’s purely a negotiation tactic.

Anyways, that raises the question. What does a Leon Draisaitl contract look like? I’ll give a few comparables and make my final prediction on what Draisaitl will get.

Comparing Draisaitl to players of similar calibre

First, let’s dive into Draisaitl’s career so far. Over the course of his eight-year deal here in Edmonton thus far, he has accumulated 275 goals and 375 assists for a grand total of 650 points in 485 games. He has easily been one of the best, if not, the best bargain contract in the league during that span.

Here’s a look at what similar players have produced during that span:

Connor McDavid: 273G, 485A; 758P in 478GP

Nathan MacKinnon: 231G, 389A; 620P in 451 GP

Artemi Panarin: 181G, 387A; 568P in 468GP

Nikita Kucherov: 196G, 368A; 564P in 401GP

David Pastrnak: 267G, 284A; 551P in 461GP

Mitch Marner: 166G, 372A; 538P in 469GP

Mikko Rantanen: 221G, 307A; 528P in 448GP

Brad Marchand: 197G, 328A; 525P in 454GP

Auston Matthews: 292G, 229A; 521P in 437GP

Connor McDavid is still in his contract that pays him $12.5M annually. Nikita Kucherov’s deal was signed back in 2018 that sees him make $9.5M. Mikko Rantanen signed in the fall of 2019 which sees him make ~$9M. Mitch Marner also signed his deal in 2019 and makes ~$11M, set to expire next season like Rantanen and Draisaitl. Brad Marchand is at a steal only counting towards a ~$6.6M cap hit, signed back in 2016.

So now let’s get to the real comparables: David Pastrnak, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews.

Pastrnak signed his deal back in March of 2023. The Czech star signed an eight-year deal worth $90M (11.250M aav) in total. Matthews signed this past summer as a four-year deal worth $13.25M per season. Finally, MacKinnon signed his in the fall of 2022, an eight-year deal worth $12.6M per season.

What Draisaitl’s contract could look like

It’s safe to assume Draisaitl’s agents will use these contracts as parameters. Draisaitl has a Hart in his career, an Art Ross, a few 50-goal seasons, a bunch of 100-point years, and is consistently the team’s best player come the players. He’ll probably surpass Pastrnak’s number and I believe will come near MacKinnon’s number. I don’t think he’ll reach the $13M mark like Matthews.

So what’s my prediction? Judging off what similar players have gotten in years past, along with the salary cap going up, I predict that Draisaitl will sign an eight-year extension in Edmonton worth $12M a season, a total value of $96M.

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Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire