Stuart Skinner is coming off his most impactful start as an Edmonton Oiler on Sunday night, shutting out the Los Angeles Kings in a 1–0 win in Game 4 of their first-round matchup. The Oilers defence did a good job at limiting shot quality, as while public models had the Kings with around three expected goals, private model had the Kings with a mere 1.5 expected goals.
Regardless, the Kings got plenty of bodies to the net, putting pressure on Skinner to give up any rebound. However, he was able to control nearly every puck that came his way, stealing the Oilers the game with zero margin for error.
Expectations going into playoffs
Oilers fans were perhaps rightfully nervous about Skinner’s ability to backstop the team through the playoffs. Even within the season, the local product had seen an up and down season. He started off extremely slow, but had rebounded under new Head Coach Kris Knoblauch’s defensive system. The result netted out to the seventh best full season performance across the league according to private analytics firm Clear Sight Analytics. Skinner proved over that stretch that he could be a legitimate starting goalie in the NHL during the regular season.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are a different animal. Up to seven games against the same team results in magnitudes more scrutiny, pre-scouts and pressure. Skinner did not fare well in his first trip through the NHL postseason last year. His heavy workload while making up for Jack Campbell’s struggles and the high danger laden attacks he saw from Los Angeles and Vegas made things more difficult for the then rookie, but he needed to be better. The hope coming into the 2024 playoffs was the extra year of experience combined with Skinner’s playoff success at other levels would come together.
How the games are going
In Game 1, it did.
The Oilers ended up running away with the game, but Skinner made several key saves when the game was within reach for the Kings, including a massive breakaway save on Viktor Arvidsson early in the second. However, the counting stats didn’t end up reflecting the strength of his performance, as two goals went in off Oilers defence along with Cody Ceci’s stick blowing up leading to a wide open two-on-one.
Game 2 wasn’t the same for Skinner. There were a number of stoppable goals against, ultimately with Skinner probably needing to stop two of the pucks that got past him between the first, third, fourth and fifth goals. More than anything technical, it looked like Skinner was trying too hard, which can make it impossible to react quickly. Part of Skinner’s improvement through the back half of the year has been his ability to completely relax, which wasn’t the case on Wednesday night.
After that game, the heat was on Skinner. Large parts of the fan base looked at his counting stats from last year, along with the raw numbers from the first two games, and determined that Skinner was not a playoff calibre goaltender. However, it wasn’t just one continuous struggle. This was one bad game after a poor postseason in 2023 split between a strong Game 1 and regular season. The panic was premature, with some even going as far to suggest that Calvin Pickard should see the Game 3 start.
What happened over the next two games is the stuff of Edmonton legends. The Edmonton kid, went on the road with the Oilers and gave up 12hr goal over 120 minutes, 4.06 expected goals against, and 61 shots against to win two consecutive games. The Oilers absolutely crushed the Kings in Game 3, but with the slim margin in Game 4, Stuart Skinner was the difference, and has now brought himself to +0.92 GSAx on the series and made up for his performance in Game 2.
With Skinner playing extremely well in three of the four games, it appears he’s starting to settle into a groove. The Oilers don’t have any options worth considering at this stage behind him, so the fan base is going to have to learn what the team has and start trusting their home grown starting netminder. Stuart Skinner is the starting goalie having success, and will lead the team to feast or famine one way or another this spring. It should be past the point where every start, shot and save is a referendum on the decision the player and the decision to put him in that position.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
