The Edmonton Oilers saw their win streak come to an end. After 16 straight victories, they failed to pick up the record-tying 17th win. With their two win streaks this season, the team climbed from being out of the playoffs to the third seed in the Pacific.
Any NHL team putting together a double-digit win streak is already impressive. But few have made it to streaks of 15 games or more. Since tracking began, only five teams have reached this mark: The 1981–82 New York Islanders (15), the 2012–13 Pittsburgh Penguins (15), the 2016–17 Columbus Blue Jackets (16), this year’s Oilers (16), and the record-holding 1992-93 Penguins (17).
So, what can be compared between these three teams to see which streak was the most dominant? Let’s take a look at how these three teams’ streaks stack up.
Note: The 1981–82 Islanders and 1992–93 Penguins are unfortunately excluded in the comparison due to tracking stats only being implemented in the NHL onwards from 2007–08.
An analytical look at the win streaks
Considering these three win streaks are 15 or 16 games long, I will only look at 5v5 stats since the sample size is sufficiently large. A dive into special teams is its own topic for another time.
Below are selected stats presented at 5v5, score- and venue-adjusted from NaturalStatTrick.com.
| Team | CF% | GF% | xGF% | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 53.85 | 72.89 | 55.02 | 10.45 | 95.28 |
| EDM | 55.91 | 69.19 | 57.31 | 10.19 | 93.91 |
| PIT | 51.68 | 69.01 | 54.36 | 10.48 | 95.13 |
So in comparing the above tables, a couple of stats stand out. First, the Oilers actually had the worst goaltending of the three teams. A 93.91 SV% is nothing to balk at, but the other two streaks were significantly buoyed by goaltending dominance.
Also, looking at percentages, good teams that win often tend to put up similar results. Edmonton had the edge in CF% and xGF%, but the three teams really were similar. However, turning to rates, it’s a whole different story.
Here are the same counting stats converted to rates per 60 minutes instead of percentages, still at 5v5 SVA.
| Team | CF/60 | GF/60 | xGF/60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 57.26 | 3.35 | 2.45 |
| EDM | 63.96 | 3.36 | 3.24 |
| PIT | 58.83 | 3.14 | 2.20 |
Turning percentages into per-60 rates, it’s clear the Oilers are playing a different game. And that’s expected! The game has evolved into a faster-paced battle where most teams are prioritising high-danger shots. Edmonton happens to be one of the best teams in the NHL at doing exactly that.
They posted almost 64 Corsi per 60 minutes—at 5v5! They are well over a shot attempt per minute. In a game like hockey where the puck can be 100 to 200 feet away from any semblance of a shot for most of the game, getting more than one shot attempt per minute is really darn good.
The other major difference and perhaps the biggest of them all is the xGF/60 difference. As mentioned, Edmonton’s the sole team that only slightly overperformed their xGF. The other two teams got insane puck luck and had their GF/60 nearly exceed their xGF/60 by an entire goal.
A clear case of outright domination
What does this mean compared to the percentages though, if all three teams had higher GF% than xGF%? Here’s a take on it all: If a team has more GF% than xGF%, they’re scoring more goals than expected compared to their opponents. So it can be a combination of more or better shots for, or fewer and worse shots against, or better goaltending. Essentially, many different things factor into changing the ratio and it’s not entirely clear without a deeper dive.
However, when looking at rates, we can get a better sense of the expected outputs versus actual outputs immediately. For Edmonton to post 3.24 xGF/60, that’s outright dominant in itself. They’re relentless on offence, and their prioritisation of high-danger shots actually works. Most nights, they’ve gotten results because they’re putting in work to earn those high-quality shots.
For them to get 3.36 GF/60 on 3.24 xGF/60? That just means this team is nearly exactly what one should expect them to be on offence. At 5v5, they’ve put up some dominant showings during their streak and are a very dangerous team to defend against.
All of this bodes very well for their playoff aspirations.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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