Here comes the semifinals at the World Juniors. Two of the “Big 3” are there. Sweden squeaked out a quarterfinal win over the Swiss. The fact that game went to OT was pretty shocking. The penalty call was even more shocking. The US confirmed they are the favourites and comfortably steam rolled Latvia. The remaining two games were nail biters. Finland and Slovakia put on a clinic. Sisu, once again, prevailed. Finland in elimination games is a nightmare. Czechs got revenge on Canada.
Recap of the quarterfinals
For recap. Canada beat the Czechs 3–2 in overtime last year. Then they beat the Czechs 3–2 in overtime at the Hlinka Cup in summer. This game was also headed to a 3–2 victory but, for once, the Czechs won it with a Jakub Stancl goal with 11 seconds left. In an amazing coincidence. The goal went in off Oliver Bonk in a awfully unlucky bounce. Bonk is the son of Radek Bonk who is a Czech legend. The Czech goal going in off Oliver Bonk led to some pretty funny memes. I’ve joked that the Czechs hatched this plan 18 years ago. A double agent!
Unfortunately, some keyboard warriors took it way too seriously and harrased Bonk so much online that he had to close his account. To be clear, the goal wasn’t Bonk’s fault. It was awful luck. He is a first rounder with a bright future for Canada at future events. Canada’s downfall was more to do with allowing two weak goals at 5v5 in the first period. They dominated for a full 30 minutes from the second to the third period. However, they kept missing the net (which is normal when you have a hot 6’6” goalie in it).
Canada is actually in a funk on European Ice. In the last five World Juniors, Canada only has one medal and four without a medal. The last five on North American ice yieled three golds and a silver. Next year is in Ottawa and I’d like to officialy congratulate Canada on making the finals!
USA versus Finland preview
On paper, at this particular tournament, the USA are big favourites. They should win 5–0 on their way to a gold. Finland almost didn’t make the quarters. They lost to Germany. Piece of cake! However!!!! Finns are an absolute nightmare in elimination games. They never go away. They have as many gold medals as the US at this tournament (five each). They have nothing to lose and that makes them a real threat. US have scored 17 goals in their last two games.
The USA’s enemy will be complacency. Finland also beat Sweden in a nail biter before beating Slovakia in a nail biter. They are battle tested. Smart money says US wins by a few. However, Finland winning here wouldn’t even be remotely shocking. We are also on big ice which is easier to defend on.
Czechia versus Sweden preview
Same as the other semifinal. On paper this is Sweden by a couple of goals. They should run away with this. They are at home and have a tremendous squad. Their defence is a work of art, well coached, some great forwards, and their goalie has been very good.
On the other hand. Czechs have more gold medals than Sweden in the 2000’s (two to one). Sweden has a pretty long history of being paper favourites, going undefeated in round robins and then being eliminated early. One year, their captain even tossed his silver medal into the crowd after receiving it. They lost to Finland and then really struggled with the Swiss.
Czechs are on a nice run. The defending silver medalists got their revenge on Canada from last year and are in their third straight semifinals (Sweden is too). As I wrote prior to the tourney, they have a very solid team with no major weaknesses. They are strong everywhere (including coaching as Augusta has been excellent) and have very few expectations on them. They are as clear an underdog as you can get! They have improved with every single game after the Slovakia anhilation. Defeated Canada in an elimination game, demolished Norway, took the US to a seven-round shootout and beat the Swiss comfortably.
Prior to the quarterfinals I mentioned Tomas Cibulka was due for a point. Well, he led the team in minutes, was a +3 and scored the second goal. It was a real statement for the Q’s leading D scorer! The third line is a real threat for the Czechs. Jakub Stancl scored two goals (fourth-round pick) and plays pro in Sweden. His two linemates are both over a .ppg in the WHL. Becher and Rymon have been excellent. Opponents have been, wisely, focused on Jiri Kulich and this frees up the third line to score. I’d keep an eye on them in this game. Jiri Kulich and Eduard Sale are due a statement game as well.
Michael Hrabal was up and down in the round robin but he was flawless against the US and Canada. He is more than capable of stealing a game and compares well to the three remaining goalies. Kulich is still one of, if not the, best shooters in the tournament. The Czechs definitely have a punchers chance here. Through five games their D has proven to be very reliable. It is not an outstanding D core but has no real flaws and a good mix of skill and size. Sweden definitely has a better D core though.
Smart money says Sweden 4–1 in a very controlled game where they tactically control the flow. Get a Power play or two and captilize. Then counter attack on the Czechs who have to open up. It’s happened a lot over the last 20 years at every level. They need to score first and get the crowd behind them. Czechs need to keep it close and hang on.
All the signs point to a Sweden versus USA final. It makes sense. Both won their pools and have the best rosters on paper. I wouldn’t count out either of their opponents though as semi finals can come down to “intangibles”. Both the Czechs and Finns have those in spades.
Photo from @usahockey on Twitter
