The 2024 World Junior Ice Hockey Championship is entering the knockout phase, with the quarterfinals taking place on Tuesday, January 2. Finland beat Slovakia in overtime, United States won 7–2 over Latvia, and Switzerland lost to the host, Sweden. Meanwhile, Team Canada lost to Czechia.
Through round robin, there’s been upsets galore, blowouts, and everything in between. Here’s some quick notes from the tournament so far regarding the goalies:
Slovakia has a goaltending advantage if Gajan is healthy
During last year’s tournament, Adam Gajan was the surprise of the tournament. Coming in as an unheralded prospect from the NAHL and USHL, Gajan played four games, posting a .936 SV% and 2.40 GAA, leading to him winning the tournament’s best goalie award. In fact, if it weren’t for Connor Bedard’s heroics, there’s a really good chance that Slovakia would have upset Canada in the quarter finals. His tournament performance ultimately played a big part in Gajan being the first goalie off the board in the 2023 draft.
This year, it’s been more of the same for Gajan. He went 3–0–0 in round robin, with a.934 SV% and 2.00 GAA. However, in Slovakia’s finale against the USA, Gajan was scratched from his start for “rest” reasons. If that’s all it was, or if it was a tactical move to not give the Americans a look at Gajan before the playoffs, the Slovakians should will have the better goalie in any game they play. If he’s not 100% or unable to go, Slovakia could be an easy out.
USA clearly has a better goalie
Trey Augustine was USA’s starter at last year’s tournament, but had mixed results. He had a 4–1–0 record, but had just an .891 SV% in six appearances. Being listed on the smaller side, at 6’1″, Augustine was still selected in the second round by Detroit due to his technical prowess.
His partner at this year’s tournament was selected 28 spots later by the Canadiens in Jacob Fowler. Both have player two games so far, and the results could not be more different. Augustine has a .952 SV% while Fowler has a .872 SV% behind the same defence. Augustine missed his two games due to illness, but was able to start the finale against Slovakia. Assuming he’s healthy, the Americans will have goaltending only rivaled by the Slovaks. If they end up relying on Fowler, who has looked uncomfortable so far, it could spell trouble for USA’s chances.
Team Canada’s Rousseau and screens
Mathis Rousseau has been far from the biggest problem for Team Canada so far at these World Juniors. The 19-year-old has been good in each of his starts so far, playing every minute for the Canadians en route to a .924 SV%, 1.75 GAA, and 3–1–0 record.
However, the Germans fully uncovered an exploitable trend on Rousseau: screen plays. The Montreal native is not the tallest, being listed at just 5’11”. It’s possible to play at that height, but it requires a lot of work to find success, particularly when battling traffic. What the Germans were able to show is that Rousseau often defaults to his first look then doesn’t move from there. Most defences are set up to have the goalie take the short side and have the far side blocked by the defender. Rousseau has been guilty a few times of checking that first read, but then settling for that even if he has zero vision on the puck. The result is point shot goals where the Canadian netminder never sees it, but had the opportunity to give himself a sightline.
Hrabal has exploitable deficiencies
Michael Hrabal has played every minute for Czechia so far, and was the starter against Canada on Tuesday. Clocking in at an impossing 6’6″, Hrabal does not have the same issues as Rousseau with traffic, simply looking over it. However, there are some exploitable trends for Team Canada to target, as shown in his .888 SV% and 2.94 GAA.
The first is pretty simple. Hrabal has been beat clean on shots from distance multiple times so far in the tournament. For a goalie who was a second round draft pick and is currently starting in NCAA Division 1, that’s not something that would normally be seen. There’s a lot of rebounds that are coming off these open shots as well. Bottom line is the Canadians should not be afraid to shoot the puck when they have quality looks.
There are some specific looks that Hrabal is having trouble with are focused on pre shot puck movement. In general, Hrabal doesn’t appear to have a ton of urgency around the crease, which can leave him trailing the play and out of position on quick plays. In particular, when he has to move from his blocker side to his glove side, there’s a lack of rotation that comes with his pushes, leaving the far side open as he tries to reach back to make saves.
Will Havelid get tested?
Sweden has split their starts so far. Melker Thelin has played pretty decent, posting a .909 SV% and 1.92 GAA with one shutout on the way to a 1–1 record. However, Hugo Havelid has been perfect so far in his two starts, including against the Canadians. However, he’s only faced 41 shots in that time frame.
Finland was able to make a dent in the Swedish defence in their New Year’s Eve game, winning 5–4 in a shootout. Sports have become increasingly copy-cat, so teams will likely try to replicate that offensive attack. Logic would dictate that the undersized Havelid would get their knockout round starts, but it will be a new challenge since he hasn’t really faced a whole lot so far.
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