It’s been a positive start to the season for the Edmonton Oilers. 5–1–1 and second in the Pacific Division is an encouraging introduction to the Mike Babcock era. It’s been especially impressive due to one major constraint: player health. The Oilers have been hit hard by the injury bug to begin the year, with offseason goalie signing Frederik Andersen out until December.
The main injuries however, have been up front. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Matt Savoie, Jason Dickinson, and Mattias Janmark are all in various states of injury, and thus it might be a bit until Edmonton is truly at full strength. When that happens though, which players will find themselves without a solidified roster spot?
Let’s look at some of the most likely candidates to be on the outside with a fully healthy Oilers roster.
Samanski has not proven himself yet
It’s a bit disappointing to say given the high hopes for Josh Samanski, but he hasn’t quite taken the opportunity to join the big club that he was given this season. Owen Michaels won the competition for fourth line centre out of camp, and although Samanski is playing with the Oilers now, it’s mainly due to injury reasons. He’s only played 30 NHL games in his career, so it’s certainly not the end for him. It’s also probably for the best that he’s getting some NHL reps right now. With a fully healthy roster however, he’d presumably need to beat out Michaels to keep a spot, which doesn’t seem likely with Michaels having two goals on the year and showing real promise in the face-off dot.
It wouldn’t hurt Samanski to go back to the AHL when the Oilers are fully healthy and play big minutes, like Isaac Howard and Matt Savoie did the last couple of seasons. The truth of the matter is simply the Oilers have more proven forwards than Samanski when healthy, and the one younger player he’s competing with is playing better than he is. If he ups his game, he could make it a genuine debate, but until that happens, I’d imagine he’d be one of the first players sent to Bakersfield.
Formenton still on the outside
Alex Formenton is another one of those players whose lineup spot will be unsettled with a fully healthy roster. He’s a bottom-six winger with some speed, and can kill penalties. The special teams ability might be enough for him to keep a spot, perhaps on the second unit.
However, between Dickinson, Savoie, Hyman, and Kapanen who all regularly kill penalties, not to mention the occasional McDavid penalty kill shift, Formenton could very well be on the outside in that regard too. He hasn’t provided much in the way of offence besides one goal and a few assists. Plus, he’s not particularly stout defensively, nor is he physical enough to be kept around as part of a grinding line.
Ultimately the things he does well are covered better by more established players. It’s possible the Oilers may keep him around as a 13th forward. But if that’s not the case, he could easily be sent to Bakersfield as an NHL-ready depth option that can be recalled if any injury troubles arise again.
Jones continues to struggle
Max Jones is really only playing for the Oilers right now because of injuries. Besides a two-year stint with Anaheim, Jones has struggled to find a place in Edmonton’s roster and has existed as a purely end-of-the-lineup player who’s physical style does just enough to keep him playing. Again, the things he does well are covered by more established and talented players.
Much like Formenton, Jones is NHL-ready depth that can be called upon if needed, but ultimately I think he’s at best the 13th forward and at worst playing for the Condors. It’s very possible he’s just the regular healthy scratch for Edmonton.
If the Oilers are looking to have some physicality in the bottom-six alongside a player like Colton Dach, I could see Jones keeping a spot. Other than that, I think he’s firmly on the outside when the whole roster is healthy.
Mathieu Joseph and Filip Hallander
I believe both Joseph and Hallander will actually be decent bets to stick in the lineup regardless of health. Both players have shown some flashes of talent and hustle, and seem to be useful bets for the bottom half of the lineup.
Hallander is just beginning to establish himself as a real NHLer, and Joseph has been a rotational NHL player since he debuted with Tampa Bay in 2018–19. Joseph also kills penalties, giving him some special teams value. Both Hallander and Joseph play similar physical styles and have pace to their game. This is something to be valued on a team like Edmonton which values speed throughout the lineup. I believe among the players discussed, Joseph and Hallander both have the best chance to keep a spot, even with a fully healthy Oilers team.
Owen Michaels and Isaac Howard
I believe Owen Michaels is the Oilers 4C until proven otherwise. He’s been impressive to start the year, particularly in the face-off dot, and he’s got a couple of goals to show for his efforts. Howard’s start has been more muted due to his lineup placement, but his off-puck play has improved considerably since last season.
I think sending either player down would be a mistake. Howard is at the point where he needs to take an NHL job by force and keep it; Michaels has played well enough to start that I don’t think his spot should be filled by a veteran purely because they’re a vet.
Ultimately, I think the most likely candidates to be on the outside looking in with a fully health Oilers roster are Samanski, Formenton, and Jones. It’s not that they’re bad players, just that other guys in the lineup do what they do, but better.
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