A stat often used to indicate luck, PDO is calculated by combining a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. Often, a number of 100 is seen as neutral, a resting point that most teams inevitably fall close to. It is hardly an exact science, as teams can finish a season between 97, bad luck, to 103, good luck. In a small sample size to start the season, the Edmonton Oilers sit at 106.8 as of Tuesday morning.
This appears to be fairly unsustainable, as the highest single season PDO over the last ten seasons is 2022–23 Boston Bruins at 104. However, there is more than good luck behind the Oilers success so far. Some obvious things can alter or impact these stats in such a small sample size, but perhaps the Oilers can continue their winning ways more sustainably.
The Oilers have a lot of shooting talent
The Oilers have three bonafide superstars on their team leading the charge offensively. Simply put, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard are as dynamic a trio as possible. Some level of offensive output is inevitable with all three in their primes. Naturally, the power play is beneficiary of this as well, as the Oilers are routinely amongst the league’s best.
Still, some Oilers have enjoyed high individual shooting percentages. Vasily Podkolzin sits at 31.4%, Kasperi Kapanen at 25%, Owen Michaels at 28.6%, all standing out as high. Shaving a goal or two might have cost the Oilers a point or two over the first eight games.
To an extent these Oilers will always have the chance to exceed their expected goals for. Their actual number here is not amongst the best in the league, in fact 27th at even strength based off of moneypuck.com. Still, the Oilers could generate a lot more chances and exert a lot more control over games with better health. Key contributors in Zach Hyman, Matthew Savoie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jason Dickinson have all missed time, and would certainly tilt the ice in the Oilers favour.
Some bad luck, or PDO regression, might easily take form in some offence drying up for the Oilers. This might alter the conversation around the Oilers depth, as the stars are pulling beyond their share so far. From a positive outlook there is an angle this gate will be avoided. The Oilers have a lot of players vying for roles, or a lot of possible lineup options. Greater health might coagulate some depth into a stronger synergy, concentrating the talent.
A strong defence is present
The other side of the equation is the defence. The Oilers overall team save percentage is about average, and their penalty kill has struggled a bit. That said, their expected goals against at five on five is third best in the league. The Oilers have done so despite a few wild games to start the season.
Even without an unusually high save percentage the Oilers are proving to be a strong defensive team. The emergence of Ryan Shea is huge here, forming a stout pairing alongside Connor Murphy. Again injury has played a factor, especially given the injuries at centre. Owen Michaels is another significant factor, proving himself in a role essentially meant for Jason Dickinson.
Some credit certainly goes to the coach. The team appears to be organized, pulling together under Mike Babcock. The biggest issue is undoubtedly the penalty kill, as operating at 70.83% is not good enough. The Oilers are showing the consistency and effort required to be a strong defensive team.
Ultimately this is what will help the goalies stay confident. Tristan Jarry is positioned nicely as a high use backup behind a strong team. Devon Levi is looking solid, but is in his biggest NHL role by a margin. A return for Frederik Andersen would certainly provide some relief. With strong defensive play, the risk of Levi’s inexperience and Andersen’s health seem possible to overcome. Without it, the Oilers goaltending plan can quickly seem optimistic.
Ultimately, a true standout defensive season is part of this team’s transformation. Although the McDavid era Oilers have been magnificent in the playoffs, the defensive consistency required of a champion continues to elude them. Often their success has been in spite of it, in fact. Their inability to put together a consistent regular season, let alone win the Pacific Division, are symptoms of this issue.
The margin of victory is often razor thin in the NHL. Teams will face adversity. Results must be earned every second of the way. That said, the Oilers should be considered a contender regardless of their elevated PDO.
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