Ladies and gentlemen, the Edmonton Oilers are a few days away from playing Game 1 in the Stanley Cup Final. What a journey this has been. From 2–9–1 to firing Jay Woodcroft, to the 16-game win-streak, to this very moment.
Heading into the Western Conference Final, fans alike, more specifically salty Vancouver Canuck fans, and Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leaf fans, were saying the confusing phrases “Dallas will steamroll Edmonton”, “Stars in 4”, “Edmonton is going to get killed. They’re frauds!” Well, well, well. The Oilers proved their haters wrong and beat the Dallas Stars, a team a lot of people had winning the cup, in six games, sending the boys off to the Stanley Cup Final.
How did this happen? Was it McDrai going supernova like they did in 2022? Was it a case of Jake Oettinger blowing up? No. The series you saw the Oilers play was probably their most complete stretch of games they’ve ever played in the Connor McDavid era. Easily, their best playoff series I’ve seen this team watch. Here’s how they did it.
Elite special teams
It goes without saying but Edmonton’s special teams once again were incredible throughout this series. The penalty kill for starters went 100%, like they did against the Los Angeles Kings. The Oilers went 15/15 on the PK against Dallas, and haven’t allowed a goal since Game 3 against the Canucks.
The duo particularly in Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown have been unstoppable, even going as far as scoring a shorthanded game winning goal in Game 4. I do now know where this magical elite PK came from but it’s been a really, really long time since Edmonton was good shorthanded. During the Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson days, the PK was a glaring weak spot in the their game. It was one of the reasons why they lost to Vegas and bowed out early, and might of been a major contributor in Woodcroft losing his job. The PK needs to continue their strong work against the Florida Panthers.
The power play for Edmonton was huge as well, but that’s expected. What’s shocking is that they didn’t score a PP goal until Game 5 of the series, where Ryan Nugent-Hopkins batted two to win a 3–1 game on the road. The PP came up clutch and was the difference in a tight, defensive game. Similar story in Game 6, where the Oilers only goals came on the man advantage, with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman scoring the markers. It won them a game that saw them go into a defensive shell for the final 40 minutes and it got them to where they are today.
5v5 and our stars
Despite what the haters think, the Oilers kept it pretty even with the Stars when it came to 5v5 hockey. The Stars had 12 goals this series compared to the Oilers’ 11 goals. The big factor was that Edmonton’s stars showed up more than Dallas’ did. McDavid led the way with TEN even strength points this series, followed by Bouchard with seven, Hyman had five and Draisaitl had four.
Sure, while Dallas’ guys did produce 5v5 as well, a lot of those came in one game. Jason Robertson had three goals 5v5, all of which came in Game 3. He was practically silent for most of that series. Tyler Seguin had two goals 5v5, which again both came in the same game. The Oilers’ top guys spread out their 5v5 offence throughout the series, and it’s ultimately an area of the game on why Dallas ended up losing.
When it comes to the analytics, it reinforces the fact the Oilers were superior.
The Oilers outplayed the Stars in three of the games this series. Game 3 was easily their worst which was pretty easily interpreted by the eye test as well. When it comes to the high danger battle, again the Oilers have shown that they come out with more high danger chances more ofter than not. You might be wondering why I’m saying that when the Oilers lost the HD battle in the last two games. I think Game 5 in particular is a bit misleading.
A deeper look into Game 5 shows the Oilers throughly outplayed the Stars in the first two periods of that game. The second period in particular was a beautiful sight. Not a single HD Chance for the Stars. With being down 3–0 in the third period, Dallas started taking more risks and getting more chances. It happened again in Game 6. Dallas was playing with a lot more desperation and generated a lot of shots and chances, while not generating the absolute grade As. Make no mistake, the Oilers played a great series 5v5 and anyone telling you otherwise is either biased, dumb or is a troll.
Goaltending
I had an urge and a feeling that Stuart Skinner was going to have a good performance this round. Oh boy, was I ever right. Skinner outperformed Oettinger by a mile. Skinner had a .922SV% and a 1.91 GAA compared to Oettinger’s .907SV% and 2.52 GAA. Skinner’s only “weak” game came in Game 3, and it’s hard to fault any of the goals on him besides Robertson’s hat trick game winner.
According to Moneypuck, Skinner had a GSAx of 4.24 compared to Oettinger’s 2.13. Skinner outplayed the young, elite goaltender all series. We all know that heading into a series your goaltender needs to be near his best. The Oilers never got that from Skinner last round against the Canucks and it almost cost them the series. He flipped the script in a huge way however and has shown he can be called upon when the team needs him. It does look like Skinner has learned from last year’s disaster which is a huge developmental change for the young netminder.
I will say this. I do think the Canucks were in the Oilers’ and Skinner’s head that caused that series going further than it should of went. Besides that, Skinner’s had a stupendous (no pun intended) series against both the Kings and the Stars, and we need that same Skinner against the Panthers.
Going into the Final
As I’ve stated in my hot takes prediction, and even going as far as saying it a few times last summer, I truly think this is the year the Oilers get it done. That look of devastation against Vegas gave me the feeling something special was going to brew. I thought it’d be against the Rangers (oh how close I was). But alas, it’s against the Panthers. A darn good team. People are already saying they’re gonna kill us. That’s fine by me.
We’ve been proving our doubters wrong all season and I do not think McDavid and Draisaitl will lose this series. They’ve come so far. They’re near the finish line. They’re almost at the ultimate goal. I think we’re gonna see the best version of these two players in their careers. This is going to be a challenge for Edmonton. But, I have all the faith in the world in the boys. It’s Oilers in six. Bring the cup back home. Do it for Joey. Do it for Ben. Do it for the city of Edmonton.
