Here we are folks, the playoffs are upon us and there really is no better feeling than the start of playoff hockey. The world is at our feet, everything is possible. The Edmonton Oilers get the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the playoffs for the third year in a row. As much as the current, heavily division-based, playoff format does create rivalries, I personally would rather see the NHL return to the Conference 1-8 based playoff format so that teams have a better chance of seeing new opponents each year. Instead we watch replays of the same series over and over again, which is a hint to how I think this year will turn out.
A look back at the history between the two teams
The last two years Edmonton has faced Los Angeles and both went the way of the Oilers, though they were entertaining matchups. Last year Edmonton took the series in six games, half of them went to overtime and one more was decided by one goal.
The year before last went to seven games with one overtime game. That year was actually marked by a few blowouts including an 8–2 and 6–0 wins by the Oilers. This regular season the Oilers are 3–1 against the Kings. More than anything else, the regular season record is the best data we have to predict the outcome of this series.
Looking at the numbers
Statistically, the Oilers dominate the Kings. Edmonton leads by large margins in goal differential, expected goal differential, and faceoff percentage. In fact, the only areas where Los Angeles lead are in penalty minutes, weighted save percentage, and penalty kill. The Kings impressive, NHL second best, penalty kill is a point of concern for the Oilers who were 3/13 or 23% on the power play in four games against the Kings this year, which is far from bad, but is down from the 26.3% where they usually sit.
Another potential problem is that the Oilers penalty kill is only 79.5% and they do take more penalties than Los Angeles. The disadvantage in weighted save percentage is not huge, and I can’t see it having a major effect on the outcome of this series.
Here Edmonton is in Orange and Los Angeles in silver. The levels of each bar are relative to the league maximum and minimum. So Edmonton’s Xgoals % and Xgoal differential are the best in the league.
Matchup preview
Fortunately for the Oilers, the Kings were recently taken in by an ingenious scam run by the Winnipeg Jets wherein the Kings were assured one good hockey player in exchange for three not as good hockey players. Instead Winnipeg sent a paid actor cleverly disguised as a hockey player. Not realizing this, Los Angeles promptly signed him to an eight-year, $8.5M AAV deal.
The situation is not quite as bad as that, but the fact is that Pierre-Luc Dubois has 40 points in 82 games and is being paid $8.5M a year. At just over $500 grand per point, he is one of the least financially efficient players in the NHL. If he doesn’t change his ways he will be a huge weight on the Kings for many years to come, unable to be traded because of his huge contract.
On the other side of the trade is Gabriel Vilardi with 36 points in only 47 games, Alex Iafallo with 27 points in 82 games, and Rasmus Kupari who has only one point in 28 games. Altogether they are only being paid only $8.44M, $600,000 less and 24 points more.
This is a long winded way of saying that the Kings lost a lot of depth and grit in their lineup last summer, and are getting neither grit nor offense in return. As a result, they will have a much harder time containing Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the rest of what is a more dynamic offence than the last two years. I just don’t see L.A. coming up with an answer to both McDavid and Draisaitl’s lines. That’s the benefit of having two super stars on separate lines.
Despite the fact that the Kings lost Iafallo, Vilardi, and Kupari they have probably become a more impressive team offensively. Anze Kopitar really hasn’t lost a step while Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, and Trevor Moore have all been more productive since last year. Combined with Quinton Byfield’s breakout this team is a serious offensive threat. I see both teams fighting fire with fire. Instead of playing defensive hockey, they’re strengths are in forcing the offense and even though Edmonton has the advantage here, a lot will come down to Stuart Skinner standing tall against fast breaks and sustained pressure.
Overall round prediction
The Kings will put up a great fight and this should be a fun series, but I see the Oilers winning in six. The two teams are very evenly matched but for McDavid and Draisaitl, they will tip the scales in favour of the Oilers and deliver them to the second round date with the Vancouver Canucks.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
