Four Canadian teams have qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2024: the Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets, and Toronto Maple Leafs. That is the most since 2017, when five teams from up North made it to the post season (not including 2021 when four teams had to make it by virtue of the North Division, and 2020 where technically all seven Canadian teams made it as the Qualifying Round in the bubble was considered the playoffs).
The question every post season in Canada since 1993 is which Canadian team will be the one to finally bring the Stanley Cup “back home.” We decided to ask the fans what their thoughts were in this week’s Sunday census.
Want to take part in Sunday Census polls? We send them out every week on our Twitter at @oilrigEDM. Follow along or send in ideas for the next poll!
Edmonton Oilers
Shockingly, the followers of an Oilers blog overwhelmingly chose the Oilers as the favourite to win the Cup, with 84.3% of the vote.
But is this just homerism or is there actual merit to the Oilers finishing first in this poll?
Well, factors in the Oilers favour over the other teams:
- Connor
- McDavid
- Leon
- Draisaitl
Connor McDavid is the undisputed best player in the game, even if he is unlikely to win any regular season hardware this year. He has also been a force in the last two playoffs, scoring 53 points in just 28 games which is the most in the NHL during that time frame.
Granted, that’s only three points up on the guy in second place, so does that really give the Oilers an advantage?
Well, when that guy also plays for the Oilers, I’d say yes.
To put it in perspective on how dominant these two have been the past two postseasons, they are first and second in goals, assists and points. Draisaitl’s 20 goals is four more than third place sharers Nathan Mackinnon, Chris Kreider and…Evander Kane, who also plays for the Oilers. McDavid’s 35 assists is nine more than third place Adam Fox, and after the 53 and 50 points they have scored, third place is Mikko Rantanen with 35.
In fact, there are only three teams whose top two scorers combine for more points than McDavid (Colorado Avalanche, New York Rangers, and Tampa Bay Lightning), and only two teams that combine for more than Draisaitl (Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights).
This dominance has obviously been a huge factor in the Oilers having played the fourth most playoff games the last two seasons, behind only Florida, Tampa, and the Carolina Hurricanes.
So yes, there is merit to the Oilers being the front runner. However, the rest of the team performing is always the question, although this season the Oilers have a point per game defenceman, two other defencemen with double digit goals, a 50-goal scorer. and a further two 20-goal scorers behind them, along with a goalie who leads the league in wins since the coaching change.
While 81.1% might be a bit over the top compared to the other teams, the fact that the Oilers are in first actually makes sense.
Winnipeg Jets
Solidly in second place with 9.9% of the vote is the Winnipeg Jets. Again, since this is an Oilers blog, it begs the question whether this is accurate or if Oilers fans just can’t bring themselves to vote for either of the other two teams.
Well, when you consider that the Jets finished with the most points of all four teams, then being in second place is arguably too low for them.
The Jets also enter the playoffs on an eight-game win streak, doubling the next highest end of season win streak. They led the league in both regulation and regulation and overtime wins, not winning a single game in a shootout. Considering that there is no shootouts in the playoffs, that’s a pretty good sign.
They have the least amount of goals against, as the only team with under 200 (just barely, at 199) and have the best goal differential of all four playoff Canadian teams. They have the almost certain winner of the Vezina Trophy in Connor Hellebuyck, and have 13 players who hit double digits in goals.
In fact, the one reason that the Jets probably can’t be the favourites is that their way to the Cup looks absolutely brutal.
They face off in Round 1 against the 2022 Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche, who are looking to avenge their first round exit last season to the Seattle Kraken behind career years from Nathan Mackinnon and Cale Makar (yeah, they could get better).
But if they beat the Avs, their reward is either the 2023 Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights, or the Western Conference winning Dallas Stars.
Granted, if the Jets manage to make it to the third round, then one has to think the rest of their opponents should be a cakewalk in comparison (unless it’s the Oilers, because Oilers blog).
Vancouver Canucks
While the first two places in this poll are pretty cut and dry, the next two are fairly neck and neck. The Canucks eke out third place with 3.3% of the votes.
The Canucks won the Pacific Division and swept the Oilers in their season series, so it seems weird that they would be so low. But again, Oilers blog right?
Well 7 out of 15 of the NHL.com writers have the Canucks being upset in the first round by the Nashville Predators, in comparison to just one vote for each of the Oilers or Jets to lose their opening matchups.
So it looks like the Canucks might be the Rodney Dangerfield of this year, as they are getting no respect from anyone.
The Canucks have the potential Norris winner in Quinn Hughes, five 20+ goal scorers and a goalie who is playing just slightly below Hellebuyck’s level.
By being in the Pacific, they avoid the initial gauntlet that Winnipeg will have to endure, which could be helpful in terms of being “fresher” later on in the playoffs.
The Canucks are a dangerous team, and even if they might be playing above their abilities this season, if they can keep it going in the playoffs then they can really make some noise. Plus, the doubting of their abilities after the season they put up certainly makes for some good bulletin board material.
Toronto Maple Leafs
At a lowly 2.5% (i.e. three votes), the Leafs bring up the rear in this poll.
This is one where you can point to the fact that this is an Oilers blog, but also that it is probably absolutely the most correct placement.
The Leafs are the only one of these teams to not have home ice advantage. Like Winnipeg, they also have a tough route, starting with their kryptonite Boston Bruins. If they manage to slay that demon, then they face the winner of the Florida Panthers, who beat them last year despite the Leafs fans politely asking for them, or the Tampa Bay Lighting, who yes, the Leafs beat but are still a team with vast playoff experience and who would be looking to get even with their colour twin.
Goaltending is an issue for the Leafs with presumed starter Ilya Samsonov rocking an ugly 0.890 save percentage and 3.13 goals against average.
The Leafs do have their firepower though, behind Auston Matthews’ nice but also not as nice as it could have been 69 goals and a career season for William Nylander.
But the playoff demons are still there for the Leafs, even in spite of finally getting out of the first round last year.
Perhaps being the legitimate underdog this year helps both ease the pressure and put a chip on their shoulder; this is the first time they haven’t had home ice since 2018–19 (although, don’t ask who the opponent was that year) and like the Canucks it seems like everyone is writing them off.
I kind of hope as much as it pains me to say it, I think everyone can agree that the best (or at least most entertating) Stanley Cup Final would be an Oilers-Leafs matchup (provided the Oilers win, of course).
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
