Every great sports team needs a best player. Someone to be the face of the franchise, someone that the fans consider the best in the league, someone to pull their team out of the mud, and someone to wear the blame when they can’t. The 80s Edmonton Oilers had Wayne Gretzky, the 90s Chicago Bulls had Michael Jordan. The turn of the century has seen Tom Brady, LeBron James, Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin, and many others. For Toronto Maple Leafs fans, this is anybody to ever put on the jersey as well as any prospect to be picked before the fifth-round before they have played an NHL game.
This is the player who fills the stadium with thousands of eyes waiting to see the spectacular things they do every night. The player who makes everyone around them better. At times they do this so well that it seems like they are the whole team, like the team couldn’t possibly perform without them, and yet a great team should be defined by how well they can play without their star.
Sports stars and their supporting cast
Gretzky was supported by an entire cast of impressive players, players who he raised to another level but were already greats. How many championships would the Great One have without Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, and Paul Coffey? How about Jordan without Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman? LeBron without Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade? Crosby without Evegeni Malkin, Chris Letang, and Marc-Andre Fleury? This is a debate as old as professional sports which never leads to any certain conclusion but its clear that, though a star elevates those around them, the same is true in reverse.
Connor McDavid reaching 100 assists on Monday night illustrates this perfectly; how many assists would he have if I was playing in Leon Draisaitl’s spot? Honestly, he’d probably still make me look adequate, but Lord knows I can’t even connect with a one-timer let alone fire one top shelf from one foot north of the goal line like Draisiatl.
My athletic shortcomings aside, McDavid’s recent absence has allowed us the opportunity to look at how the Oilers perform without the Chosen One. Fortunately for the Oilers, but unfortunately for the data, McDavid really hasn’t missed much time since his rookie year. He has only missed five games this year, none last year, and two in 2021–22. I’ll only be looking at these seven games since it really isn’t fair to judge the current team on games from that long ago.
Stats from the seven games missed
It doesn’t look great right out of the gate as the Oilers are 2–4–1 in those seven games. The first thing to notice about these games that McDavid has missed is that the goals for is down a full goal to 2.43 from 3.48 where it was in 2021–22 and 3.61 where it sits right now. The same is true for shots for (at 31.2 from 34 in 2021–22 and 33.9 right now). On the other hand, even though the Corsi in 2021–22 was down from that years average, this year was actually slightly above average at 55.7.
It’s difficult to make any reasonable conclusions with this little sample size, but the discrepancy between shots for and Corsi suggests that the Oilers still control the puck well and get enough shooting chances without McDavid. However, when McDavid is in the lineup, the Oilers actually put more rubber to the goalie. Similarly, the Oilers put up a significantly larger number of goals with McDavid on the ice, which should come as a surprise to no one. It’s clear that McDavid increases the quality of shots taken, again, not a surprise considering the the scoring chances he gifts to his teammates every night.
On the defensive side, the goals against were up to 3.28 from 3.06 in 2021–22 and from 2.83 this year. The shots against average of 30.1 is down from the 32.3 where it was in 2021–22 but is up from the 28.2 where it sits now. Again, it is very tough to draw explanations from only seven games worth of data across three seasons, but the difference without McDavid on the defensive side is less than it was on the offensive side.
However, it is not insignificant either. The Oilers current GAA of 2.83 is eighth best in the league, but the 3.28 GAA without McDavid would put them 23rd this year. To put that in perspective, that would tie them with the Calgary Flames. Even though McDavid is often criticized as not being great on the defensive side, it seems that the old adage “the best defence is a good offence” does ring true.
Oilers without McDavid
The difference McDavid makes in GF and GA averages is actually a little worrying but I really can’t put enough emphasis on the fact that only seven games worth of data is blowing those numbers way out of proportion. That being said, team depth is something the Oilers should strive for. Easy to say and difficult to do with a hard salary cap.
That is one reason why the games against the Minnesota Wild and the Vegas Golden Knights are encouraging. The Oilers lost to the Wild 7–4 on October 24 without McDavid, right at the tail end of their poor start. While the defensive game and Jack Campbell’s performance are not impressive, the Oilers got two goals from Warren Foegele, one from Evan Bouchard, and one from Evander Kane as well as assists from Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Zach Hyman. This is a good mix of depth from the forwards and defencemen.
The same can be said about the 5–1 win against Vegas on the April 10. Cody Ceci, Ekholm, and Dylan Holloway all scored and the Oilers made mincemeat of a very dangerous Golden Knight team. The 9–2 rout of the San Jose Sharks on Monday is also encouraging, even though McDavid was playing, he tallied only two points (one of them being his 100th assist of the season, OLE!!!). Usually if the Oilers have a nine-goal night, you’d expect McDavid to be in on six of them, but Monday night saw goals from Adam Henrique, Foegele, Holloway, Cory Perry, and Ceci.
The question of this season is whether or not the the Oilers have the supporting cast to bring the Stanley Cup to Edmonton. While the flimsy numbers are not particularly encouraging, the thing about hockey players is that they rise to the occasion. Hard work is not a substitute for the raw talent that God gave to McDavid but it holds more sway on a game than it does in any other sport. For that reason, the Oilers and their fans can have a lot of hope heading into the playoffs.
Stats accurate as of April 16, from NHL.com, moneypuck.com
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
