As we near the precipice of the NHL’s trade deadline, the Edmonton Oilers have continued to round into form. Overcoming a dreadful start to the season, the Oilers have had their share of tribulations and turmoil already. This adversity has served the team well as they continue to forge their identity, continuing the maturation of a perennial contender into a Stanley Cup champion.
Through the past handful of games, the Oilers have rebounded after a lacklustre loss to the Calgary Flames on February 24, at the time their third loss in a row. In fact, there was some worry that the Oilers played less than 0.500 hockey coming out of the All-Star break, coinciding with the end to their near historic winning streak. Since then the Oilers have reeled off five straight victories, avenging February losses to the Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues, and Boston Bruins in the process. The Oilers aren’t perfect, and perhaps no team can be, but there are several positive trends that have begun to reveal themselves as the time to make roster changes wears thin.
Internal improvement in the roster
During various segments of the season, in particular prior to the Kris Knoblauch hiring, there seemed to be a multitude of holes in the Oilers roster. As the NHL is a results based business, poor performance inevitably leads to questions, just as winning seems to answer them. At this point there is but one obvious need across the Oilers lineup, a winger to play on the second line. Although Pavel Buchnevich or Jake Guentzel are the biggest names rumoured to be on the market, adding Adam Henrique, a capable middle-six forward, should be enough to solidify an already robust lineup.
Naturally improvements will always be conceivable, and health is fleeting, but it’s clear that the Oilers have found answers to some of their early season lineup issues via internal candidates. Stuart Skinner has continued his coming of age as a goaltender, essentially cementing himself as a bonafide NHL starter. The only thing separating Skinner’s reputation from more at this point is the length of his track record. On his current trajectory it is feasible that Skinner earns consideration as a top 10 goalie in the NHL, and perhaps even the starting role on a best-on-best team Canada. Skinner might rival Zach Hyman in terms of value per cap dollar, and might even be considered among the most team friendly deals league wide.
Elsewhere, Evan Bouchard is earning legitimate Norris Trophy consideration. Mattias Ekholm might be in such conversations as well, but either way the duo form one of the league’s most dominant pairings. Further down the lineup Brett Kulak is playing the best hockey of his career, but the point of intrigue comes in the form of Vincent Desharnais.
Finding Darnell Nurse a defensively oriented right shot partner with a small enough cap hit to fit into the Oilers salary structure has long seemed a near impossibility. Somehow the Oilers seem to have found such a player under their noses, or at least Desharnais has earned the opportunity to prove himself thusly. Having just begun his audition in a top four role, Desharnais still has to impress, but surely he is held in higher esteem across Oilers Country than he was over the offseason. Though some may have qualms regarding Nurse’s cap hit, or with Cody Ceci’s less than ideal analytical profile, the Oilers unequivocally have a strong blueline, featuring high end offensive talent as well as more traditional traits in length and strength.
Woes for the rest of the Pacific Division
While betting odds suggest that the Oilers have regained their expected form as true contenders, the balance of the Pacific Division is trending in their favour. Virtually every team across the league has had tough stretches throughout the season. Now, the Vegas Golden Knights and Vancouver Canucks are hitting rough patches of their own.
For the Knights this largely comes in the form of injury. This was the issue for the reigning champs two seasons ago, in 2021–22, the only time that the Knights have missed the playoffs during their brief history. While they aren’t in danger of slipping out of a playoff spot anytime soon, and Mark Stone is believed to be returning at some point, the Knights showing signs of mortality opens the door for, at the very least, better seeding for the Oilers.
On the other hand the Canucks are the more volatile team to predict. Many will point to PDO regression, a bursting of their shooting percentage bubble, as an inevitability that the Canucks cannot outrun. While Vancouver has added to their lineup throughout the season, and do employ several elite level players, the truth is we might have already seen the best the team has to offer. The Canucks should still be considered a dangerous opponent, but their grip on the division’s top seed has loosened to the point where Oil Country might reasonably dream of home ice through the first two playoff rounds.
Edmonton’s upcoming schedule
Through the remainder of March the Oilers will have a fairly weak schedule, though not entirely devoid of high level opponents. The more troubling aspect of the upcoming schedule is certainly its density, as the Oilers have five back-to-backs remaining in the regular season. Undoubtedly Calvin Pickard will play a role down the stretch.
As the regular season winds down the Oilers will be able to measure themselves against most of the Western Conference powers. The Oilers have three games remaining against the Colorado Avalanche, and one against each of the Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Golden Knights, and Canucks. Whatever additions the Oilers choose to make before Friday’s trade deadline, the team will have a chance to gel and test its mettle prior to the playoffs.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
