The Edmonton Oilers are in dire need of a second line scoring right winger. Oilers’ GM Ken Holland believed that Connor Brown could fulfill that position when he signed him this past July, but Brown has yet to score a goal nearing the end of February. Along with a top-four RHD, a winger on the right wing for Leon Draisaitl is a must if they want any chance to win the Stanley Cup. A few names have been floated out such as the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jake Guentzel, St. Louis Blues’ Pavel Buchnevich who would be a homerun acquisition, and one in particular that Oil Country has mixed feelings about, Jordan Eberle.
Eberle obviously has history with the organization and could fit the bill of the winger Edmonton needs. Is it a good fit? Well let’s take a quick look here. All graphs and analytical stats are from Moneypuck. EvolvingHockey, JFresh, and NaturalStatTrick.
Why was Eberle traded in the first place
Eberle was dealt after a disastrous 2016–17 season which saw him struggle to put up 20 goals, where had had to score four in the last two games against a terrible Vancouver Canucks team. The playoffs weren’t much better where he had only a measly two assists in thirteen playoff games. That summer the Oilers also had to give out extensions to Connor McDavid and Draisaitl so a contract had to be moved out.
Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were the candidates, and obviously, former GM Peter Chiarelli traded away Eberle to the New York Islanders for a young Ryan Strome. The Oilers then used those cap savings and used it entirely on Kris Russell… for whatever reason. Interesting to note that Eberle’s lowest on-ice shooting percentage and actual shooting % as a whole both came in that 2016–17 season. They entirely sold low on his value.
Years after the trade
Not a surprise but Eberle rebounded in a big way, and even showed the clutch skills he has in the playoffs like we saw in the World Juniors. He scored twenty goals four more times after the deal, and is on pace to do so this season. Eberle as well notched a total of 63 points last season.
When it comes to the playoffs, he led the team in points in the 2019 postseason, scored a clutch goal in Game 5 against Tampa Bay to force a game six in the Eastern Conference Finals, once again made the ECF in 2021 against Tampa, and he scored the first ever OT goal in Seattle Kraken Playoff history. The 2017 run was *obviously* an anomaly.
While Eberle’s defensive game hasn’t been great, you can see above that he still drives play 5v5 and can still finish at a very good rate, which is what Edmonton desperately needs on the right side for Draisaitl.
Eberle’s time in Seattle
Now let’s just isolate Eberle’s stats during his tenure in Seattle.
As shown, Eberle drives play 5v5 at a very good rate but can tend to underperform his xG rate. He’s not that much of a liability defensively either as he shown he was with the Islanders and his days in Edmonton. Once again, this illustrates that he should be a decent fit for the Oilers. In 2021–22, Eberle scored 0.6 goals above expected and last season scored 1.3 goals above expected. He’s finishing at a league average rate essentially.
Let’s take a look at this season alone now:
Eberle has been superb at creating chances 5v5 and has been finishing said chances as well near the same pace. He’s been really good in his own zone as well. According to NST, his xG% rate this season is at a 54.98. However, his actual GF% is near the 60s. It’s also noteworthy that Eberle’s PDO is at 1.024 which means he’s been a bit lucky. However, he’s actually been underperforming his xG this season by 2.2. What does this mean? It means that while Eberle might have some regression in his play driving and is surely to see some of his defensive stats tinker, his level of finishing is surely going to get better soon.
Is he a good fit for Edmonton?
I think Eberle would be a decent option for the Oilers. There’s definitely better guys out there like Pavel Buchnevich, Vladimir Tarasenko, among others. But I would love to see a world where Eberle returns to help the Oilers win the Stanley Cup. Could you imagine Sam Gagner and Jordan Eberle lifting it on home ice? What a sight that would be.
Has anyone thought about the disruption of the team chemistry in all this trade talk, bringing in hired guns in the hopes of improvement in the short run? The team seems to be a pretty tight unit right now, everyone seems to know how to fit in regardless of what line they are on, even the hapless Brown seems to to have a place on the PK. Holland/Knobby need to think long and hard about potentially messing things up.