The NHL goalie market has been stagnant. There’s a number of buyers looking for a goalie, with weak depth and injuries rearing their head thus far this season. There’s an available supply of goalies to bridge that gap, but teams with three goalies are treating them like gold, setting a high price that is not yet being met general managers.
However, there appears to be some softening of that market. Teams are running out of time to leverage their goalies for assets, such is the case for Jacob Markstrom and the Calgary Flames. The 33-yea- old is among the league leaders in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) but has a full no movement clause, making a deal tough. Elliotte Friedman has reported that the Flames will only go to Markstrom with a significant deal or a landing spot they think he would enjoy, but the Swede is the top available option on the market until Boston decides which of their goalies they’ll move (but that’s likely in the offseason).
Merzlikins asking for a trade out of Columbus
On the other hand, players are growing tired of unideal situations and may push the issue, as is the case with Elvis Merzlikins. The Latvian goaltender has been the subject of controvery of late in Columbus, with the Blue Jackets rarely starting him in a crease that also sports Daniil Tarasov and Spencer Martin. On Monday, Merzlikins had a rare start, playing against the Vancouver Canucks, winning in a 4–3 shootout decision. During his post game presser, Merzlikins stated that he had asked for a trade, making him the most available goalie on the market.
Should the Oilers take advantage of Merzlikins’ availability?
The Edmonton Oilers have a clear need for a partner for Stuart Skinner. Originally the organization’s plan was to have Jack Campbell go down to the American league, regain his confidence, and come back up. However, Campbell has now lost his job to top prospect Olivier Rodrigue, and is being played minimally to preserve his health for what seems like a likely offseason buyout.
Calvin Pickard has been above expected but in extremely sheltered minutes (per ClearSight Analytics). In the few starts he’s had against real competition with rest, he’s struggled heavily. It’s been a great stop gap for the Oilers, but I would not trust Pickard in a playoff game and would still expect the Oilers to make a move.
But is Merzlikins the guy to solve that? Here’s the 29-year-old’s career numbers since his debut in 2019–20 according to Evolving Hockey.
Breaking into the league, Merzlikins was in a time share with Joonas Korpisalo, and was sitting right around the break even mark. However, his career took a massive turn during the 2021 offseason. At an Independence Day party, Merzlikins’ best friend and long time goalie partner Matiss Kivlenieks was killed in a fireworks accident at the home of then Blue Jackets’ Goalie Coach Manny Legace. Reports say that Kivlenieks more or less saved his wife’s, Merzlikins’, and Merzlikins’ wife life by taking the impact. Following the incident, Merzlikins’ stats took a nose dive for the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons. However, he seems to have bounced back this season in both the public and private models.
According to an interview on The Jason Gregor Show Monday, Kevin Woodley reported that Merzlikins is currently sitting with a save percentage +2.4% above expected, good enough to be in the top 20 for the season.
What Merzlikins has to offer
Merzlikins is a high talented goalie that has had tremendous inconsistency plague his game. Beyond the off-ice events that would have an impact on his mental state, there is a component of that that is rooted in his style. Merzlikins plays an aggressive style, taking lots of depth, and relying on his reflexes and elite skating ability to get back into position. When it works, it can look extremely good and be effective, as shown below. However, when it goes poorly, it can go extremely poorly to borderline unplayable margins.
A Merzlikins acquisition isn’t without risk. He has stated that he thinks that he is a #1 goalie, and when he’s on, the analysts and numbers agree. However, Stuart Skinner has found his groove, and it’s unlikely any goalie the Oilers can acquire would clearly supplant the local product with his current performance. However, Skinner’s workload has been heavy, and if Merzlikins can be amenable to a time share, it could make for a good tandem. Similar to MacKenzie Blackwood, Merzlikins has a high upside profile that Skinner somewhat lacks, but the latter has a stability to his game that can carry the volatility of the former.
Whether that works might come down to Merzlikins personality as well, which is reportedly as outgoing as any goaltender in the league, and could make some front offices nervous. However, the current Oilers regime had Mike Smith for three years, who had big of personality in the crease as one could have. In fact, it’s been well documented that Smith and Skinner had and still have a great relationship, along with the rest of the locker room meshing well with Smith’s demeanor. While they won’t know until they know, the history with Smith has some promise.
Another issue is Merzlikins’ contract. He has the remainder of this season, plus three more at a $5.4M cap hit, including a 10 team no-trade list. It’s a pricy contract, especially for a netminder that experiences the ups and downs that the Blue Jackets’ tender does. The Blue Jackets might be able to find a trade partner to take on part or all of his contract, but it’s also been speculated that an offseason buyout might be in store for the Jarmo Kekalainen.
However, that might make Edmonton even more of a trade fit. It’s clear Campbell’s time in Edmonton has come to a close, with the Oilers currently on track to make an offseason buyout that will see a dead cap charge between $1.1M and $2.6M over the next six years. With that impending charge coming, the Oilers could try their luck with a new $5M goaltender, while sending Campbell and sweetening assets back to Ohio to make the money work.
Elvis Merzlikins is an interesting trade option for the Oilers, under the right circumstances. The Latvian netminder has asked out of Columbus to be a clear number one, but if he’s willing to be in a time share with Skinner, the two could make a formidable tandem. Merzlikins’ contract could be a major obstacle for most teams, but if the Oilers can offset it by moving out Campbell’s deal, the Oilers will have another swing at a high upside goaltender on a $5M contract that can complement what they currently have in house.
I would only be interested in him if they were taking Campbell back the other way and even then it would depend on assets. It would be a high risk trade based on his recent history.