With the holidays comes an annual tradition that most hockey fans love: the World Junior Ice Hockey Championships. We’ve already written a preview article for the tourney. Today, I wanted to do my annual Czech Republic preview. I am a massive Edmonton Oiler and Czech Republic fan. Traditionally this is almost the end of the year for me.
For the last 15 years (outside of a few very rare exceptions) the Oilers are already out of the playoff race and the Czechs are about to lose 8–1 to Canada/Russia/Sweden/USA before being easily dispatched in the quarters. Then I excitedly wait for the World Hockey Championships and keep a close eye on the trade deadline and hope the Oilers stock up for the next season!
The last few years have been different. The Oilers have been making the playoffs and are in good shape at Christmas time (note: not this year as we have yet to spend a second in a playoff spot) and the Czechs have made the final four the last two tournaments. In fact, after a medal drought going back to 2005, we got to the finals and won Silver. We also beat Canada for the first team since 2013! It was a tournament of many firsts!
Unfortunately there are no Oilers at this years World Junior Championships. Our drafting has been quite poor and our cupboards are pretty empty.
Let’s take a look at the Czech squad.
Forwards
The Czechs will be relying heavily on a very good forward line, while the three names are not overly impressive as it is two late first rounders and a second rounder. They, stylistically, fit together beautifully.
First we have Jiri Kulich.
Kulich is a shooter. He is leading the AHL in scoring as a 19-year-old. Having the leading AHL goal scorer at a Junior tournament is certainly a rare luxury. He will have Eduard Sale. Sale is a playmaker that reminds me of former Oiler Ales Hemsky. Great hands and vision. They will be joined by Matyas Sapovaliv. Sapovaliv is a big, hard working centre who excels at heavy minutes, faceoffs, and all the “dirty work”. The line, in theory, has it all: D presence, elite shooting, and elite passing. If they get hot, they will be a force in this tournament.
They also have experience together from U18 and last years U20 tourney. Sale was a first-round pick that went from a weak Extraliga club to a weak OHL club. He is a playmaker who has not been on a strong team for a calendar year now. I imagine he is very excited to play with Sapovaliv and Kulich and show the world what he can do with some talent around him.
Also, we have some strong forwards after the big line that could provide great secondary scoring. Ondrej Becher has been a top 10 scorer in the WHL all season. Jakub Stancl is an excellent forward, and Matyas Melovsky and Dominik Rymon are having strong seasons in the CHL as well. The bottom six is more about size and hard work. Their job will be to get the puck deep, not get scored on, and to grind.
Adam Jecho projects to be a first rounder. However, he was injured. He actually plays a lot like Sapovaliv and would’ve been a great addition to the bottom six. Only other notable exception is Jaromir Perez. His loss is not significant but he is a very good forward who plays in the top Czech men’s league. His experience on the big ice could’ve been useful. He is the first callup in case of injury. Generally speaking, our forward group is well balanced with a potentially very good top line.
Goalies
The goalie selections were strange. We brought Michal Hrabal who was the second goalie taken in the draft (very early in round two). He is a giant at 6’6” and is playing full time in the NCAA. The only other 18-year-old playing full time in the NCAA is highly touted Trey Augustine. Hrabal is poised to have a great tournament.
We had Jan Spunar who was excelling in the WHL but he got hurt. Then we have Jakub Milota and Lukas Matecha who are doing excellent in the CHL. We didn’t take them either. We went to Jakub Vondras (who is a Carolina Hurricane draft pick but struggling) and Michal Schantinger who was a bit of a surprise. He’s a good goalie but, to me, it looks like we have brought our first, fourth, and fifth best goalies (both 19-years-old). If Hrabal gets hurt or struggles, it could fall apart fast. Of course, if Hrabal gets hot then we do have one of the potentially best goalies in the tournament.
The Czechs have certainly struggled the last two decades with their NHL players declining. One thing we have done well is our goalies. We’ve had at least one goalie taken in every draft (except 2016) since 2010. We currently have seven Czechs in the NHL and it is safe to say at least one goalie will be taken in this upcoming draft too!
On an Oilers’ note: There are several Czech goalies that could help us today in Karel Vejmelka, Petr Mrazek, and Dan Vladar. All three are affordable and not on long contracts. They’d all be an excellent platoon partner for Stuart Skinner while Olivier Rodrigue develops and eventually joins the NHL.
Defence
Last year’s D core was the best defence in the tournament. Two of them went on to play in the NHL a few months later (David Jiricek and Stanislav Svozil). The previous 15 years, it could be argued our D wasn’t top six in any tournament. It was really a treat to have a really strong back end. Something not seen on our roster for over a decade.
This year’s defence is missing, potentially, our best defender in Jakub Dvorak. A Los Angeles Kings’ pick who is big, strong, and can shut the opposition down. He declined for “personal reasons”. We also lost Oil King Vojtech Port to injury in pre-tournament action.
However, the D looks very good for us. Not as strong as last year but we have Tomas Hamara, Marek Alscher, Tomas Cibulka (leading scorer for D in the Q!), and another Jiricek! David has a brother named Adam who projects as a first rounder. After that we still have Tomas Galvas and Ales Cech (third tournament and an experienced big body in Europe). It’s a very decent D core that should be competitive.
Notable omission includes Jakub Fibigr who is having a very good season in the OHL. Dominik Badinka (himself a potential first rounder) was also left behind. To be honest, it’s the second best D core we’ve sent in 15 years. Not as good as last years but, amazingly, next years defence looks to be even stronger. It’s a nice run of defence for the Czechs who didn’t really have any good defencemen (Filip Hronek and Radko Gudas) in 15 years. It’s not quite as strong as Sweden/US/Canada but it is competitive.
How does the team size up to the competition?
The best team on paper is the US. They look, on paper, to be unstoppable. Canada is missing some very key players but the addition of Matthew Poitras should keep them in pursuit of their third straight gold medal. They have not had as much success in Europe as North America in the last decade. Sweden looks to have a very good roster and are at home (sometimes a curse). Those should be the three medalists.
Finland is always good but have had a down year. Sisu can overcome anything and I wouldn’t count them out. No Kemmel or Kvirijarhu hurts their chances though and they are a slight notch behind the big three this year. The big dark horse should be Slovakia.
Slovakia have a great roster and would have been a Gold contender this year if Slafkovsky and Nemec were not in the NHL. A core of Slafkovsky (first forward in his draft), Nemec (first dman in his draft), and Gajan (first goalie taken in the draft) would be a force.
The groups and the crossovers
The other issue is the crossovers. Group B should be won handily by the USA who will then face either Germany or Latvia (which itself should be a must watch matchup). After that it is is very likely that the top 3 in Group A all advance to the semifinals. Canada/Sweden/Finland will, most likely, be playing Czechs/Slovakia/Switzerland. No matter how you mix that up, the Group A teams will be the favourites. Common sense would suggest that Group A is taking home at least two of the three medals.
However, this is Junior hockey and one hot goalie, a hot line, or a TSN camera can change your fate in a millisecond. My hope is for the Czech team to make the quarters (likely) and to win that matchup (50-50). We are built the exact opposite of the Oilers. We have a strong goalie and strong D core with our forwards being a bit weaker. I prefer that over a molten forward core and a weaker D and G corps.
Keys to success?
To be honest, the Czechs don’t need a miracle to medal here. They have all the necessary ingredients. There is no denying the Big 3 nations are better on paper. However, the Czechs are not weak in any particular area. To be successful they need to have good coaching and execution. If Hrabal plays to his potential, the top line gets hot and the D plays to their potential they could medal this year. We don’t need a miracle run this time. We just need everyone to band together, play like a team and rise to the occasion in the quarter finals. The first game against Slovakia will be key for us and placement. It should be a very good game!
I’ve mentioned next year a few times. The reason is because I feel like this team is being groomed to be a force next year. In theory, next years team has Hrabal returning (with Milota backing him up). The D core will have Galvas and Jiricek returning (two potential first rounders). They will be joined by Port, Dvorak, Fibigr, Badinka, and another Svozil. Sale will also be returning to lead the offence. Lots can change but next year’s squad looks to be a real threat. The most recent Hlinka tournament had the Czechs lose (again) in OT to Canada 3–2. There are a lot of good players from that age group moving up. Things are on the rise for the Czechs right now.
On a sad note…
I do feel it should be mentioned that the Czechs just had their worst mass shooting in history. This is not a nation with a strong history of mass shootings. It was devastating to see “Czechia” trending on Twitter and clicking on it expecting to see hockey news. Instead I saw video footage of students jumping out of windows and a shooter on a tower. Unbelievably tragic for the Czechs.
Photo from @czechockey on Twitter
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